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Plus4: Recap
Michael Thorbjornsen burst through the finish line for his 1st win as a professional. Back-to-back weeks of amazing first-time winners, setting ourselves up for what should be a very fun President’s Cup U.S. roster at Medinah in September.
Thor, part of our core plays, came through with the win, while Matt Wallace and Keita Nakajima came through for high finishes to cash their placement points.
Where we struggled was at the top of the core: Ben Griffin, who drove the ball like me, and J.J. Spaun, who on Saturday had 2.5 feet for a birdie to get inside the top 20 and complete the turkey… he made bogey and both our chances to win anything went down the drain.
The Detroit GC of times past played perfectly into Thorbjornsen’s hands as a bomber’s track. My gamble was that the difference in Detroit GC of 2025 vs. 2026 was going to bring shorter players along – that didn’t fully come to fruition. Thorbjornsens just happens to be, alongside risers like Cam Young and Xander, an elite distance and accuracy combination off-the-tee.
Plus4: Sedgefield CC
- A premium on accuracy: Of all courses on TOUR, Sedgefield ranks at the very top in terms of placing a premium on accuracy off the tee. There are a plethora of forced layups, much like you may see at Colonial and Harbour Town. Missing fairways and finding yourself in very difficult Bermuda will turn this place from a handshake to a beast.
- Difficult ARG: Donald Ross’ main defense here is greenscapes that are very difficult to scramble around. The Bermuda rough is so thick, the tilts of the greens make even fairway lies difficult. The best spot to be is the bunker … or just hit the green and give yourself a good look. You will notice that a few of my pool are terrible ARG players. Those that are terrible but in my pool have shown respectable ARG play on Bermuda compared to their own baselines.
Plus4: Sedgefield CC corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: Wyndham Championship
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Favorite Play:
Sungjae Im – $7.7
Marco Penge – $7.2
Star Anchor:
Cam Young – $10.4
Gut Check:
Hideki Matsuyama – $9.5
Rai – $8.8
Harry English – $8.3
Favorite Sub-$7,500:
Jordan Smith – $7.5
Poston – $7.4
Ben James – $7.4
RNP – $7.3
McGreevy – $7.0
Ricky Castillo – $7.1
Plus4 Bets: Wyndham Championship
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
I’m split between betting Young or JT. If I can find ‘without’ markets, I’d take higher numbers on the assumptions that all of these below, who do not win golf tournaments, will not outduel Young or JT to win a golf tournament.
These guys below are big fliers that I see value on, but mainly looking for placements.
- Schmid 240, T5, T10, T20, T40
- Penge 94, T5, T10, T20
- Meissner 54, T5, T10
- Jordan L. Smith 58, T5, T10
- McGreevy 156, T5, T10, T20, T40
- Haotong 250ish (ehhhhh)
- Kevin Yu 140 (ehhhhh)
Also looking at Eric Cole, Sungjae.
You can decipher good plays above via the odds tool, my highlighted plays and at PGA TOUR weekly course breakdown, insights, and player betting expectations.
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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