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Plus4 recap
Matthew Fitzpatrick fights the clock on the way to a well-timed win at Innisbrook. As always, Valspar created drama. That is a beast of a golf course, and it showed with the amount of players who completely folded on Sunday.
Our lineups had a few runners, but once again nothing to write home about. We are getting close. Tuning, tuning, tuning, and then we’ll pop. What better time to do than 2 weeks before Augusta at this week’s Houston Open.
I think this is some of my best work yet. WE’RE TRENDING.
MODEL UPDATES:
With that, our model has a completely new backbone. Built on Microsoft Fabric, we now have 2 key metrics created and enforced with my data science sidekick, Claude. These 2 metrics will serve as endpoints to our analysis.
Skill-driven Corollary Course Metrics
Rather than treating courses as static, interchangeable entities, this model identifies corollary courses at the individual skill level. In this, we find those courses that share playing characteristics with our target course and use a player’s performance history at those analogues to infer likely performance at the target. The “skill-driven” layer means the correlation isn’t just course-to-course similarity; it’s filtered through which skills each course rewards.
It goes without saying that some players love Bermuda grass. Some players love hitting the ball left-to-right. Some players are better than others from the deep rough, and some players are great from tight greenside lies. Each course rewards these traits independently – now, we capture and score these individually.
Machine Learning SG: Total
A ML model for performance prediction models on features derived from two key analytical layers: exponential decay-weighted player history (emphasizing recent form) and a course correlation model that matches course stats at the target with historical event-level course difficulty across a number of dimensions (difficulty of strokes-gained putting, GIR %, number of water balls). This is still WIP but coming along as a feature.
Lineup Optimizer
As a bonus to me, I have built a lineup optimizer that takes my projections and scores lineups based on player’s projected performances and historical player-player correlations (who plays better, together?). I have manually hand-built these lineups for years, and the ultimate goal was to codify it in a way that the CPU could do it for me – we are 90% of the way there.
In future months, I’d love to deploy this to the masses. That’s a heavier engineering exercise than you’d expect.
In the AI age, you can be a builder. Have an idea, realize it.
Plus4: Memorial Park Golf Course notes
Last year, Min Woo Lee took home a flagship win in a rain-soaked, wetter version of Houston than to be expected this week. As we build our vintages, we don’t expect the course to play too much like last year, and more like the years prior. Why? This week is hot, dry, zero rain. Runoffs and collection areas will be firm and fast. ARG difficulty should snap back toward the 2022–2024 range (top 10 hardest on TOUR), not repeat 2025’s (almost the easiest).
- The bomber’s skate park: Houston is the quintessential ‘spray it’ course off the tee. The rough is never an issue for players, and the course is not tree-lined to a degree where players need to chip out if they miss the average-width fairways here. Thinking courses like Detroit, Country Club of Jackson, and Craig Ranch where young guys can absolutely let it fly. Where there’s a little heat it could get TOSTI!
- Elevated approach angles: With nearly all of the greens here elevated, the approaches reminder of a VERY junior version of some fun major venues: short rough, long approaches, elevated greens. For those that strike the ball well at Augusta, I see no reason why that cannot translate here. This “major-like” approach style is evidenced in the approach correlations: multiple major courses and more common courses with relatively difficult approach play.
- Very difficult around-the-green play: Around-the-green play at Memorial Park is extremely important for success: difficulty of fairway lies around the greens are in the top percentile of all courses, meaning the ability to lean on your short greens within these tight lies is critical. This is reminiscent of so many of those ‘skate park’ courses that are very fun to watch.
Plus4: Memorial Park Golf Course corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: Texas Children’s Houston Open
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Favorite Play:
Michael Thorbjornsen ($8.6k) – Thorbjornsen rose very quickly from October through the Super Bowl. 7 events, 3 top 7s, and tasting his own blood in Scottsdale. The move to Florida is not a move that SHOULD work for a driver-intensive guy like Thorb. Nobody has a projected off-the-tee boost like Thorb, the around-the-green and short game play on should hold up on a course like this… we just need the irons to comply.
Star Anchor:
Lee, Min Woo ($9.9k) – Min Woo simply rates out too well with his recent play. Even with changing conditions against last year, this is still a course that fits Min Woo very well – the bomber’s skate park.
Kitayama, Kurt ($9.3k) – Kurt may also be a ‘floor’ play, with some elite iron play recently at courses we identify as corollary. Kitayama is a guy we can look at to hold the fort, coming off a 2nd place at a long, much more difficult and demanding place like Riviera.
Gut Check:
Clark, Wyndham ($8.3k) – I’ll say it… Wyndham Clark could win The Masters. The approach numbers have been incredible, and the putter has completely fallen off. Wyndham used to be sexy Patrick Rodgers – drive it, hit it left of the green, chip it to 6 feet, par. Sexy PRodg has flipped the script entirely… losing a stroke on the greens per round (last 4 events) while gaining a stroke in approach. How about we meet in the middle?
Coody, Pierceson ($8k) – Coody flew to Florida, andforgot his short game out west. Sony through Scottsdale… 13th, 18th, 2nd, 10th. In Florida, the short game betrayed him. I blame this on a sudden forgetfulness on Bermuda surfaces. Nobody will benefit from the trip back to Texas more than a Texas kid himself in Pierceson Coody. Much like Thorb, this would be a classic ‘first win’ spot for a guy who’s destined to win a few.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
David Riley
Max McGreevy
Billy Mouw
Mac Hughes
Plus4 Bets: Texas Children’s Houston Open
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Texas Children’s Houston Open
We are still working through the new optimizer, but we’ll get there.
Presented in order of ownership.
Lee, Min Woo
Coody, Pierceson
Clark, Wyndham
Griffin, Ben
Thorbjornsen, Michael
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan
Kitayama, Kurt
McGreevy, Max
Stevens, Sam
Thompson, Davis
Hall, Harry
Fowler, Rickie
Gerard, Ryan
Hughes, Mackenzie
Hoey, Rico
Gotterup, Chris
As always, GL GL GL.
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