adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust
Plus4 recap
Amongst the most rooted-for victories on the PGA TOUR in recent memory, Gary Woodland takes down the Houston Open. The most important stat that showed in Houston: sheer distance. Not a single event in PGA TOUR history has been so directly correlated to ball speed as the one we just saw.
We predicted distance to be specifically important to performance last week – the results were even great than we expected. Ultimately, the course played easier than we expected. Gary Woodland had a sizable Course Fit, but the lead-in form did not give us sizable Gary.
We march on… to San Antonio. TPC San Antonio plays host to the final opportunity for a number of PGA TOUR pros to get into The Masters. Last year, TPC SA was easily our best week of the year and a course I very much enjoy to watch. Scorable in the right conditions, but if you are off on your ball-striking, you will not fake it around TPC SA.
MODEL UPDATES:
With that, our model has a completely new backbone. Built on Microsoft Fabric, we now have 2 key metrics created and enforced with my data science sidekick, Claude. These 2 metrics will serve as endpoints to our analysis.
Skill-driven Corollary Course Metrics
Rather than treating courses as static, interchangeable entities, this model identifies corollary courses at the individual skill level. In this, we find those courses that share playing characteristics with our target course and use a player’s performance history at those analogues to infer likely performance at the target. The “skill-driven” layer means the correlation isn’t just course-to-course similarity; it’s filtered through which skills each course rewards.
It goes without saying that some players love Bermuda grass. Some players love hitting the ball left-to-right. Some players are better than others from the deep rough, and some players are great from tight greenside lies. Each course rewards these traits independently – now, we capture and score these individually.
Machine Learning SG: Total
A ML model for performance prediction models on features derived from two key analytical layers: exponential decay-weighted player history (emphasizing recent form) and a course correlation model that matches course stats at the target with historical event-level course difficulty across a number of dimensions (difficulty of strokes-gained putting, GIR %, number of water balls). This is still WIP but coming along as a feature.
Lineup Optimizer
As a bonus to me, I have built a lineup optimizer that takes my projections and scores lineups based on player’s projected performances and historical player-player correlations (who plays better, together?). I have manually hand-built these lineups for years, and the ultimate goal was to codify it in a way that the CPU could do it for me – we are 90% of the way there.
In future months, I’d love to deploy this to the masses. That’s a heavier engineering exercise than you’d expect.
In the AI age, you can be a builder. Have an idea, realize it.
Plus4: TPC San Antonio course notes
Brian Harman took home a victory at -9 in the 2025 edition of the Valero Texas Open. This final score was a large deviation from Akshay in 2024, and the -13 to -15 winning score we commonly saw. The last 2 versions of TPC SA we have seen have been punishing off-the-tee and on approach due to firmer conditions and/or wind – this week should be less penal. Luckily you’re staring a model that can project just that.
- Ball-striking premium: TPC SA is perennially in the top quartile of approach play difficulty. Controlling short irons and wedges in persistent winds is required here, and the list of players who succeed here are all natural ball strikers. For those that miss these tiered and smaller greens, difficult bunkers litter this place…
- Bunker play: Around-the-green play at TPC SA is most commonly done from greenside bunkers. Around-the-green success is key, and the difficult and guarded par 5s + drivable par 4 naturally leave players in these sandy lies even on typical “scoring holes”.
- Old-man game: While a fun course with a ball-striking premium, young and inexperienced players do not thrive here. Knowing where to miss and being able to salvage par when you do tends to separate the top. Just scanning prior leaderboards, this is not a place where rookies pop up. You must control your ball so intricately that the veterans hold an advantage here.
Plus4: TPC San Antonio corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: Valero Texas Open
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
This is a list full of guys I almost NEVER play! And it scares me! The theme of the player pool highlights this week is steadiness. If we can get a baked course with a little wind (not too hard where distance and speed become paramount, not too easy where bad short gamers can get away with it), we will be spot on.
Favorite Play:
Noren, Alex ($8.7k) – Noren is at a very elevated price, with zero flashy 2026 results. What Noren does have is 4 consecutive solid results in elevated fields and a perfect course fit for TPC San Antonio. Off-the-tee, Noren is still accurate and can get by with just solid OTT play. He will never have the length to gain advantage on short par 5s, so we may as well play the longest par 5s possible. Solid through approach, but the real shine is around-the-greens. If the course plays a touch difficult, there is no reason Noren can compete. I will even admit, winning is a tall task without the firepower… but maybe we’re due here!
Star Anchor:
MacIntyre, Robert ($9.9k) – Bobby Mac, fresh off a 4th place at another devilish course at TPC Sawgrass. When Scottie doesn’t play, it can be argued that Bobby has the greatest short game around. For Bob, we need a touch of wind, a baked course, and some hot irons… as is tradition in Scotland.
Gut Check:
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan ($7.3k) – You want a name even less flashy than Alex Noren? Test out Christiaan Bezuidenhout. One of the world’s top putters, and not a ton else to show. In our Approach Fit, Bez gains a sizable bump.
Kim, Tom ($7.2k) – The profile fits again, but for a player with a proven ceiling that is winning these types of events. A course no longer in the rota reminds me a lot of TPC SA: TPC Summerlin. Summerlin, just outside Vegas, is not an easy track, runs through desertish, brush-like terrain, is prone to both wind and sun, and puts major emphases on short-to-mid-irons, short game play and putting. Almost the exact can be said of San Antonio… and Summerlin was Tom Kim’s jam. Tom Kim quickly climbed to top 15 in the world as a 21 year old. My belief is in that moment he looked around, realized he was the smallest bucko in the crew, and immediately chased distance. That chase for distance has ruined a number of PGA TOUR player trajectories. We’re on a trendline, at a time, and at a course that Tom can reset to what he does best: hitting fairways, letting the irons sing, and riding a hot putter.
Wallace, Matt ($7.3k) – Almost the same from Noren, could be said for Matt Wallace – a DP World grinder turned PGA TOUR player without a signature win nor really a signature finish… but elite around-the-green and what matters will be a comfortable week and on approach. Wallace is elite from 50-150, and should be able to play in those scoring buckets.
Olesen, Thorbjorn ($7.8k) – Rinse and repeat.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Whaley, Vince ($6.7k)
Plus4 Bets: Valero Texas Open
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Valero Texas Open
We are still working through the new optimizer, but we’ll get there.
Presented in order of ownership.
- MacIntyre, Robert ($9.9k)
- Noren, Alex ($8.7k)
- Bezuidenhout, Christiaan ($7.3k)
- Wallace, Matt ($7.3k)
- Olesen, Thorbjorn ($7.8k)
- Kim, Tom ($7.2k)
- Aberg, Ludvig ($10.1k)
- Whaley, Vince ($6.7k)
- Kim, Si Woo ($9.6k)
- Mitchell, Keith ($8.5k)
- Thorbjornsen, Michael ($8.9k)
- McGreevy, Max ($7.4k)
- Fowler, Rickie ($8.8k)
- Smith, Jordan ($7.7k)
- Ventura, Kris ($6.6k)
- Spaun, J.J. ($8.6k)
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
Leave a Reply