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Plus4 recap
A very fun week in Ponte Vedra week has the golfers and bloggers alike through the appetizer of the Major Season. The great TOUR moves back eastward to Tampa for what may be the final iteration of the Valspar Championship in the current iteration of this PGA TOUR.
Early last week, PGA TOUR Brian Rolapp had a highly-anticipated presser detailing the future to the PGA TOUR calendar.
Of note? Strong verbiage on a 16-21 event schedule starting around the Super Bowl. And strong stance on a standard of 120-man fields (yes!!!!).
My thoughts on TPC Sawgrass: They murdered me boy. Cameron Young won the PLAYERS amidst a dramatic 1v1 finish against Matt Fitzpatrick… in what I consider a bastardized version of the glorious TPC Sawgrass Sunday setup that the PGA TOUR tuned over decades.
I’ll explain.
The Sunday back pin on 16 ripped away the “chaser” drama of the final par 5. That shot into 16 is difficult enough, we do not need to make it impossible to make 3 and more likely to make 6 than 4.
Not making 12 truly drive-able killed a true “chasers” hole where leaders lay up and chasers challenge. The diabolical pin on 14. 8th’s carnage.
The deep rough made attacking already diabolical greenscapes much less enticing.
What the great courses do is bring risk AND reward. The gripe of the common U.S. Open setup and the poor PGA Championship setups are that the rough and greensides are so penal that the game becomes survival. It becomes defensive. It becomes “look away from that pin and leave us on level land”
More pars, more shots to the center of greens, more layups. Less scoring, less chasing, less “WOW!”.
Augusta National is the major that perpetually does it right.
The PGA TOUR, in an effort to claim its flagship event as a “5th major”, did it wrong, and in the meantime massacred one of the best Sunday back 9 setups in golf.
Let me present some evidence (via DataGolf course stats):
- 2026 ranked as the #1 most difficult PLAYERS since 2017
- #1 highest penalty for missing fairways of any PLAYERS
- #2 lowest GIR % in PLAYERS history.
That’s trying to fabricate a “5th major” final score.
But the 2 stats the tell the story:
- Reloads per Round (i.e. the number of strokes replayed from the same location after a penalty stroke) -> Lowest of any PLAYERS in history.
- Penalty Strokes -> #2 lowest since 2016
You’re telling me that the hardest PLAYERS in history produced the least reloads and 2nd-fewest penalty strokes?
Yes, and we saw it in player decision-making.
More layups. More splash-outs. More hitting towards the safest areas possible.
And less FUN.
I am all for THE PLAYERS making itself tougher. I am fine with it claiming itself as a “5th major”. I am more than fine with the quality of the final leaderboard. But I am not here for the “U.S. Open-ification” of one of our great, glorious tracks.
MODEL UPDATES (FROM LAST WEEK):
With that, our model has a completely new backbone. Built on Microsoft Fabric, we now have 2 key metrics created and enforced with my data science sidekick, Claude. These 2 metrics will serve as endpoints to our analysis.
Skill-driven Corollary Course Metrics
Rather than treating courses as static, interchangeable entities, this model identifies corollary courses at the individual skill level. In this, we find those courses that share playing characteristics with our target course and use a player’s performance history at those analogues to infer likely performance at the target. The “skill-driven” layer means the correlation isn’t just course-to-course similarity; it’s filtered through which skills each course rewards.
It goes without saying that some players love Bermuda grass. Some players love hitting the ball left-to-right. Some players are better than others from the deep rough, and some players are great from tight greenside lies. Each course rewards these traits independently – now, we capture and score these individually.
Machine Learning SG: Total
A ML model for performance prediction models on features derived from two key analytical layers: exponential decay-weighted player history (emphasizing recent form) and a course correlation model that matches course stats at the target with historical event-level course difficulty across a number of dimensions (difficulty of strokes-gained putting, GIR %, number of water balls). This is still WIP but coming along as a feature.
Lineup Optimizer
As a bonus to me, I have built a lineup optimizer that takes my projections and scores lineups based on player’s projected performances and historical player-player correlations (who plays better, together?). I have manually hand-built these lineups for years, and the ultimate goal was to codify it in a way that the CPU could do it for me – we are 90% of the way there.
In future months, I’d love to deploy this to the masses. That’s a heavier engineering exercise than you’d expect.
Anybody can be a scientist – have an idea, realize it.
Plus4: Innisbrook course notes
- OTT difficulty: Like Sawgrass was, Innisbrook’s OTT difficulty is intense, with OTT difficulty ranking 5th of all courses in the DG database. This course, all around, poses challenge to TOUR pros, with the winning score typically floating right at -10. The course is not long, but playing from the fairway is critical. There are a number of hanging trees, combined with uphill approaches, that pose significant challenges for those off-line and/or playing from way back in the fairway.
- 175+: Of courses in the PGA TOUR rota, Innisbrook is right at the top of courses that demand accuracy from the 175+ approach buckets. Last year, over 50% of approaches came from these ranges.
Plus4: Innisbrook corollary courses
You can tell this is WIP – but someday soon you won’t need this section because my Course breakdown page will be live.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: Valspar Championship
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Favorite Play:
Hisatsune, Ryo ($8.6k) – Our diaper dandy Ryo, who we have been on in these spots for a long time. 3 straight top-10s out West, and then a 13th last week at Sawgrass. Everything is there, it just hasn’t come together. The consistent late Saturday tee times out West will pay dividends this week as Ryo looks to tackle what is a tough golf course.
Star Anchor: Bhatia, Akshay ($10.0k) – Simply riding the hottest form of this field and at a price that is digestible when wanting to play whichever core play you would like in the 7s and 8s.
Akshay – Withdraw on Wednesday morning.
Bridgeman, Jacob ($9.6k) – Like Akshay, a recent winner who has simply elevated their game. Most likely a final tune-up before Augusta for Bridgeman. Steady driver and his best approach performances in longer, more difficult approach bins. When we need to grind, I like form or pedigree – Bridgeman has the form, and is in the midst of convincing of us the pedigree.
Gut Check:
McGreevy, Max ($7.5k) – Max is very much ‘Bridgeman-lite’, as the good, all-around gamer who plays well at a longer Florida course like Innisbrook. His best work as been done on coastal Bermuda tracks. The irons were great last week, but the short-game let him down. I will ride ball-striking at a good price.
Wallace, Matt ($7.2k) – The highest course fit score in our model, for a reason that’s hard to figure out. The approach numbers at the corollary courses are great, and he’s excelled in Europe at the courses THAT SHOULD matter. The game has never translated state-side… but that can always flip.
Cauley, Bud ($7.5k) – If you lined up McGreevy and Cauley’s scoring plots, they’d be nearly the same. Florida player coming off positive performances in much-more-impressive fields at Bay Hill and Sawgrass.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Kim, Michael ($6.9k) – Kim has come back to Earth after a sterling 2025 but falling under $7.0k in a field such as this is too far a fall. The driver has been very positive, but the performances of MK have been swallowed up in elevated events. As we regress in field, a player like Michael Kim becomes a simple mis-price.
Plus4 Bets: Valspar Championship
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Valspar Championship
We are still working through the new optimizer, but we’ll get there.
Presented in order of ownership.
| name_and_salary | projected_sg_total | course_fit_score |
|---|---|---|
| Hisatsune, Ryo ($8.6k) | 1.20 | 0.43 |
| Bridgeman, Jacob ($9.6k) | 1.50 | 0.02 |
| McGreevy, Max ($7.5k) | 0.73 | 0.09 |
| Wallace, Matt ($7.2k) | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt ($9.8k) | 1.60 | -0.18 |
| Cauley, Bud ($7.5k) | 0.72 | 0.34 |
| Meissner, Mac ($7.4k) | 0.71 | 0.11 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai ($8.9k) | 1.06 | -0.17 |
| Theegala, Sahith ($8.8k) | 1.08 | 0.07 |
| Schauffele, Xander ($10.9k) | 1.94 | 0.09 |
| Kim, Michael ($6.9k) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| Keefer, Johnny ($7.1k) | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| Thomas, Justin ($9.5k) | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| Homa, Max ($8.0k) | 0.77 | 0.31 |
| Brennan, Michael ($6.7k) | 0.34 | -0.03 |
| Pendrith, Taylor ($8.3k) | 0.87 | -0.15 |
| Higgo, Garrick ($6.8k) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Greyserman, Max ($7.6k) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| Cole, Eric ($7.0k) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| McCarty, Matt ($7.8k) | 0.78 | 0.04 |
| Smotherman, Austin ($7.4k) | 0.69 | 0.20 |
| Penge, Marco ($7.3k) | 0.52 | 0.20 |
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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