2026 3M Open: Course Preview, Betting and DFS

On to Minnesota – golf season slowly winds down at this team as we race towards the FedEx Cup, training camp, and Indiana Football.

Plus4: Recap

We did not get a perfect comp for Birkdale.

What we got right:

For standard deviation of driving distance of the 30 PGA TOUR courses in 2026 in the DataGolf Course Stats model? First. Number one. As I had predicted at InsideSportsNetwork.com.

Why it didn’t matter:

Royal Birkdale ranked 5th to last in driving distance.

Not enough players took out the big stick and launched it into the thinner areas of these holes. What I blame is not the missed fairway penalty and not the bunkers, but greens that were still markedly soft and receptive for one of the hottest summers in the UK in decades. The fairways were runways. The greens were simply not – laying back was not an issue in terms of approach play.

The approach bins that I expected to be more inverted (higher distribution of 50-125 and 200+ than anywhere in between) did not pan out. Most of the leaders were playing comfortable from the middle tranches and not taking short wedges.

Bad guess on set-up? Bad read on tendencies? Don’t matter.

Congrats to Ryan Fox and a big thank you to Mr. Tommy Fleetwood for grinding a Top 5.

On the Bryson dilemma:

It was a pretty crazy ruling that should have been predicated with a warning. I’m certain 10 other instances this week were as bad, but not on camera.

I do stand with the players who had to wade through his theatrics.

What Bryson did was victimize himself, make himself look a fool, somewhat hold the tournament hostage for an hour after a late finish, and then not take any accountability with the media afterwards.

If Bryson had addressed the media afterwards, I’d think Bryson’s actions were fine, as I more than anybody love a little drama on TV.

I am all for showmanship and all for “performance” as Rory would take it, as long as you address it afterwards and take the hard questions.

Instead Bryson mashed 80 drivers on the range, and went home.

Right of Rory to address it in a way where he seemed personally offended? Probably not.

But that is who Rory has shown to be. He will stick up for the rest of the TOUR and for the “media”, even when he looks pretty bad doing it. He could of omitted the “I don’t like Bryson” bit, as that’s where the whining felt very real.

That said, the scandal had the golf world divided not in 2, but 4. Was Rory right or wrong? Was Bryson right or wrong?

I know people who fell in each of the quadrants. Including my golf coach, who made me hit 40 7-irons for 20 minutes until we finally got past the Rory topic and into my angle of attack.

Plus4: TPC Twin Cities

Generally, Twin Cities is very scorable and easy on the scale of PGA TOUR venues. This is where the PGA TOUR journeyman can hit and giggle their way to a win. Water looms, but the course is not tricky in any sense… this and the ability to dismantle the course with driver can lead to young players popping up with big finishes.

Accuracy plays: TPC Twin Cities has amongst the highest fraction of penalty strokes per player per round. This is due to water (or OB) lurking off many fairways and some ludicrous carries over water on approach. This leads to driving accuracy being more important here than most places… you will want to manage accurate drivers with those who can still play long-irons well. Too short? the iron in is too long to stick it close. Too wild? the ball is already in the water. Note that many prior winners here (Vegas, Cam Champ, Wolff, and Finau) are all very long drivers of the ball – but they almost all were also hitting fairways during that stretch. Long and straight? The course becomes very, very scorable.
Easy putting: A TPC course in the mid-west with very fair greens and a lack of undulation. These greens are not tricky and even bad putters can get hot on these. The surfaces rate almost easiest on TOUR. Generally, the whole course is easy. It is very hot and suspect softer greens that hopefully keeps these at a moderate speed.

Plus4: TPC Twin Cities corollary courses

Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.

Course breakdown

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process

Plus4 Picks: 3M Open

Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.

Favorite Play:
Michael Kim – $7.2k … 3 straight missed cuts, but mainly putter-related. I am not worried. Give me cheapo Michael Kim as a guy who can make oodles of birdies at courses just like this.

Michael Brennan– $7.8k … Two Mikes. Brennan the longer and straight version. We have seen elite drivers of the ball succeed here and hit their peaks. TPC TC with a very large missed fairway penalty off-the-tee… I like Mike.

Star Anchor:
Kurt Kitayama – $9.8k … 2 most popular players in the fields are Scottie and Kurt, for good reason. Check the box with one of the two.

Gut Check:
Mac Meissner – $8.1k … not an elite driver, but a gut check for a reason here. Why is he $900 cheaper than Doug Ghim?

Bill Mouw – $7.5k … I can’t get enough Bill.

Max Homa – $8.6k … Trending backwards.

Kohles too cheap and models well.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Zac Blair – $6.9k CHALK
Marty Dou Zechang – $7.0k … his caddie told me to play him.
Kanaya – $6.7k
Ramey – $6.8k
Paul Peterson – $6.4k (does not have a ceiling here)
Highsmith – $6.4k
Higgs -$6.6k

FYI, Chatfield will be steamy at $6.2k. I like him, but won’t tail.

Plus4 Bets: 3M Open

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

All bets here in Without Scottie markets:

Kitayama W T5
Michael Kim W 5 10
Brennan W 5 10
Mouw W 5 10
Taylor Moore W 5 10
Trace Crowe 10 20 40
Harry Higgs 10 20 40

I show value on Kanaya, Highsmith, Nyholm, Homa and Conners. I think all of those players are helped by a winning score closer to -10 than -20. All of my players I have bet are wild cards and could be complete losers here!

Plus4 Build Notes: 3M Open

You can decipher good plays above via the odds tool, my highlighted plays and at PGA TOUR weekly course breakdown, insights, and player betting expectations.

Scottie is the main question – made possible by 19 of my top 21 course fits being $7,500 and below, with most of them below $7,000 entirely.

Despite a wild price, it can be done.

As always, GL GL GL.

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