It is two straight years of winners at the Genesis Scottish Open, a course that is an awesome cap and an amazing watch.

Victor Perez also made a strong run and was able to cash a lovely top 10 and 20.

On the other side of the ledger, Tommy Fleetwood’s putter never flipped like I was hoping, Gotterup made an ample effort to go back-to-back as defending champ and win in consecutive starts, but fell just short.

Plus4: Royal Birkdale

Be ready for firm and fast. This week projects to be the Open we all dream of… sunny, firm, lightning fast, and a test that all of the best players in the world can solve in their own ways. Given our lack of skill data for the 2008 (Padraig H.) and 2017 Open’s (Spieth) here, I won’t get too thorough in the points below.

Most of the market this week is leaning to a test of accuracy.

I do not see it.

Birkdale this week will play as a the most skate park of all skate parks. Downwind holes are so firm that I suspect players will take driver more than we think. Holes with doglegs will start to pose the issue of runout and bunker-run-in… a variable that, in my eyes, will dilute the number of players choosing to club down. Now obviously driver brings it own risks… very off-target drives will be in bounding dunes, so a modicum of accuracy is still required. Those that do rip driver should be putting themselves in short approach bins that become effectively long-around-the-green play, or lag putts.

With that, around-the-green play at dry links courses is much different than any other course. Around Birkdale we get a general flatness on the greens and fairways that will make this place look wild. This in itself will elevate the elite around-the-green players and hamper those that typically struggle in around-the-green play. All of the greatest tracks you love… Augusta National, the Old Course Pinehurst, the best of the Donald Rosses, the lovely golden age course of the Northeast corridor… project a sense of creativity around the greens. I suspect that this week’s Birkdale will require maybe not as much creativity, but a sense of artistry and precision around the green that will feel like the greatest of open tests (St. Andrews specifically).

It goes to say, I am looking at a bomber-grinder narrative, and that will show below.

BE AWARE: this is a little away from consensus, and I strive to be very right, or very wrong.

Plus4 Picks: The Open Championship

Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.

I will return to update this, but the board is wide open for whoever you want to build. Given the course is such a variable, play guys that you can imagine playing well together.

Favorite Play:
Rory McIlroy– $11.9k … I believe driver is a weapon. Rory is amongst the top 3 humans on Earth at weaponizing driver. Around-the-green play on a very firm and fast green. Rory may be THE best of the top tier of players. Number 4 in my course-fit, I suspect Rory to be able to dismantle this golf course and win the event at -15. 3 majors in 2 years, and a trajectory towards double-digit majors.

Star Anchor:
Tommy Fleetwood– $10.5k … I will put Tommy in this spot, as your favorite play should be confident to win the event. Tommy does not fit the bomber narrative, but every time we find a course that appeases to longer players, Tommy with his median distance always rises in our model. Can Tommy scramble and putt? I think so.

Gut Check:
Tyrrell Hatton – $8.9k … A have a fear that Tyrrell cannot putt. If he can, he is a top links player and fits these courses well. The driver can get a way, so we need it either long or straight. TH is the type to make the late charge up the board.

Brian Harman– $6.6k … The Sleeple’s Champion. And a potential 2-timing Champion Golfer of the Year.

Cameron Young– $9.0k … I will not play much Cam Young as he’s been dreadful. There are rumors we have a caddy change. The wrist was a problem. That said, nobody can flip the switch much like Cam Young, and a healthy Cam Young would rate out amongst the very top of my model.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Nick Taylor – $5.9k
Ben Griffin – $6.8k
Nicolai Hojgaard – $6.6k
Max Greyserman – $6.0k
Johnny Keefer – $6.0k

Plus4 Bets: The Open Championship

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Card pending, but I wanted to share something

• Winning score U269.5 -125 on Fanduel
• Rory – finding best number; I will have odds bets all over with Rory
• Tommy – searching for w/o Rory market at 17/1+
• Nicolai T5 10 (will be in a w/o market)
• Min Woo T5 10 (will be in a w/o market)
• Hatton T5 10 (will be in a w/o market)
• Harman T5 10 (will be in a w/o market)
• Keefer T10 20 40
• Nick Taylor T5 10 20
• Greyserman T5 10 20

Staring at the value I see on AFitz, but I think the run is coming to a halt. Too much flash to compete late at this Open after the summer fun run he’s had.

Plus4 Build Notes: The Open Championship

I have not built lineups yet or refined the pool. You can decipher good plays above via the odds tool, my highlighted plays and at PGA TOUR weekly course breakdown, insights, and player betting expectations.