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The Renaissance Club hosts the beginning of the BRITISH SWING. The best of times with super early golf-watching, a big crop of young Europeans from the DP World TOUR, and a reprieve from the steamy, plodding, Midwest golf we’re in the middle of.
It’s no slight to the TOUR, but we’re well through their best stretch of the year. The PGA TOUR’s peak is Torrey Pines through the Masters. From there on, it’s only about majors, and all other events fall. That is true, EXCEPT FOR THE SCOTTISH. A great golf course that brings a true test to the world’s best.
If I were the Makers of Schedules at PGA TOUR HQ, I’d lean into the European swing and partner with the DP World TOUR leaders to grow the Irish Open, Open de Espana, maybe platoon the French and Italian, with the Scottish Open and British somewhere in between. These are awesome golf courses and I’ve long felt that EARLIER play would actually garner more viewership when followed-up by what would be a weaker John Deere, 3M, etc. field that focuses on building the budding stars.
Now that’s how you grow the game. More on the TOUR later.
Plus4: The Renaissance Club
Exploring with new models:
We’ve exploring an upgrade of the engine behind our player projections.
Player skill
Instead of relying on hand-set formulas or external for how much each part of a player’s recent performance should count towards a course-agnostic baseline skill, our models now learn those weights directly from years of tour results. This is machine learning in application, bringing us to our own, non-biased player skill rating.
Course fit
Our regressionary approach to course-fit is being revisted. A clean, separately-calculated adjustment for how well a player’s game suits this week’s venue using more than just a signal of X, Y pairings across events, but a more dynamic study of course clusters to create our course-fit adjustments using the same adage -> there is more to be driven out of course-fit than a 5-spoke radar plot.
The below and corollary courses will show you that this is not a true Links course. It’s more of a long, parkland style track than built like the fully mown, super-fast Links tracks that The Open is contested at. Around the greens, you will still see lots of putter.
- Distance plays: Missing fairways means very little here, as long as you avoid the pot bunkers. Distance is correlated with success, especially since the field expanded. Gotterup (2025), Bobby (2024), Rory (2023), Xander (2022) and Min Woo (2021) can all poke it out there with the best of them.
- Approach play around 175 yards: Over 40% of approaches will come from 150 – 200 yards, and upwards of 55% between 150 – 225 yards. That’s a massive quantity and rips the 9 irons, pitching wedges, and sand wedges out of most of these guys hands. It will not play like a John Deere where you can plod from fairway to green with nothing but an accurate driver and 9 iron.
- Very easy around-the-green play: Renaissance does not feature super dramatic greens complexes. If you avoid the pot bunkers, getting around here is very easy, especially around the greens. Guys comfortable from tight lies should have a field day… it’s a spot where Min Woo won as a newbie in 2021. These types of lies are where you see Justin Thomas chip in 5 times.
- Difficult putting under 5 feet: A weird dichotomy, this is the hardest spot to make putts under 5 feet. Blame it on the fescue greens and crazy pinmakers.
Plus4: The Renaissance Club corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: Genesis Scottish Open
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
There will be a theme to most of our plays here. Good drivers of the ball, but not necessarily the longest of crew. Great long irons. And grinders. As the player pool is built out, I’d prefer a winning score closer to -10 than -20.
The top of the board is so expensive when you start to dip into the upper 6s. This is different pricing format than we’ve seen all years, and it will create some issues in lineup construction. I am focusing on the $9k range, hoping to get it right, and hoping that the bottom of the board follows my projections in fizzling out and killing the back-half of Scottie, Rory and Rahm builds.
Favorite Play:
Tommy Fleetwood – $9.4k… When abroad, play Tommy. Tommy Fleetwood will not be the most popular play as there’s a reason to play everybody in the $9k range. This will deflate some ownership at the very top. Tommy’s buggaboo here has been the putter, and we can trust that to flip at some point.
Star Anchor:
Chris Gotterup– $9.3k… Last year’s winner here, and last week’s winner at JDC. On a course that suits him, go back to the well.
Gut Check:
Nicolai Hojgaard – $8.0k… Back to the well after with Nico after a good stretch away. This way to be Nico’s breakout year. The course fit for Nico as a great driver and somebody who should work well on these fescue greenscapes.
Tom Kim – $7.6k… An odd commodity, The Great One is awesome at short TPC courses, and long and difficult sand belt courses. This is not links golf, but TK shows the propensity to spike on and around the greens at courses like this, especially when coming in in form.
J.J. Spaun – $7.6k… Just too cheap.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Michael Kim – $6.9k
Victor Perez – $7.1k
John Parry – $6.8k
Plus4 Bets: Genesis Scottish Open
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
The board is not screaming VALUE in any way here. Not outrights as of yet.
Plus4 Player Pool: Genesis Scottish Open
Rory > Scottie at the price
Tommy everywhere
Wyndham and/or Gotterup are perfectly set up to continue a run of form
Spaun and Hatton are too cheap
Nicolai and Min Woo as upside plays around $8k
Tom Kim and Adam Scott in the middle, filling around with Shane Lowry if you’re playing short guys and Knapp/Penge is playing long ones. Reitan if you’re a believer in the Erling Haaland
Below $7,400, my numbers drop a lot: Matt Wallace, Nick Taylor, Tom McKibbon, Victor Perez
Michael Kim
Victor Perez, John Parry
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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