Plus4: Recap

Last week’s tout focused on Akshay and Cantlay, 2 guys who went out in the penultimate group and floundered coming down the stretch. Viktor Hovland gets a very exciting Monday morning win over Scottie Scheffler, who may have hit his tipping point.

We once again got Ludvig Aberg wrong – a tale as old as time.

On DraftKings, if you used parts of our playing pool you could of like strung together some super high finishes with Scottie. Onward we go.

Plus4: TPC Deere Run

TPC Deere Run, on the banks Moline’s Rock River, is the quintessential easy PGA TOUR course. There is little defense in Deere Run and primarily comes down to short approach play, capitalizing on the 3 par 5s, and putting.

• Easy, easy, easy: In terms of off-the-tee, approach, and putting play, TPC Deere Runs ranks near the bottom percentile in all key stats. Around-the-green? It shouldn’t even matter. If your guy is missing greens, he’s not winning. ARG is Straka’s one buggaboo and something I see J.T. Poston always get the yips on… those 2 were not held back from wins here in 2023 and 2022, respectively
• Odd-lie approach play: The one key item that is hard to quantify at TPC Deere Run is the elevation change and approaches from uneven lies to very small targets. There are few courses that mimic this, but the most notable one is Augusta National. Now, Augusta has much, much longer approach bins. The approach comps here actually tend to be TPC Sawgrass and TPC Toronto mainly, two courses with their own fairway knobs and shorter approach bins.
• Driving accuracy or driving distance?: Even with off-the-tee showing as an easy statistic, most bettors here aggregates towards accurate drivers. Distance is not required, but I still believe it plays an advantage and that the prior winner list of B. Campbell, Poston, Straka, Z. Johnson et al is not indicative of shorter play being a requirement. Nowadays, players are simply better drivers and are willing to take off more of these par 4s than in prior days.

Plus4 Picks: John Deere Classic

Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.

Favorite Play:
Michael Thorbjornsen– $9.0k… the name a year ago that everybody expected to flash early in their career. Thorb had a great finish here last year on strong iron play and has most of high-end finishes at courses where you NEED to score, including Phoenix, John Deere, Detroit GC and Punta Cana. The ball-striking is back trending straight upwards, and Thor is a guy who, if correct mentally, can lap the field here just as eyes flip to Koivun as the “Next Great American Golfer”. Number 1 in my course fit model, by a comfortable margin.

Star Anchor:
Chris Gotterup – $10.7k…not entirely sure why Gotterup is playing here as the defending champion for next week’s Scottish Open and easily in the field in two weeks for The Open. For just that reason, Gotterup can easily win on this track. There is a choice up top between Ben Griffin and Gotterup. Both rate well in my model EXCEPT for projected putting stats. I will be trusting my model, but I cannot blame anybody for anchoring their week to Ben Griffin.

Gut Check:
Jordan Spieth – $9.2… speaking of the Next Great American Golfer, Spieth has a case of the golf sads. Every presser is negative, the play is lackluster, and the putter is cold as ice. Jordan needs a rush of blood to get the happies back, and no course shoul induce the happies like TPC Deere Run, where he took the TOUR by storm many moons ago. This should be the Spieth jam… hot short irons and a hot putter. The driver was a strong point all year, and needs to get back to that. If Jordan shoots 65 on Thursday, he can win. If he shoots 70 on Thursday, I expect the sads take over and he starts to see what the media schedule looks like at Royal Birkdale in two weeks where Jordan is the defending champion.

Rickie Fowler – $8.9k… go ahead and laugh for reading “Speith… Rickie”. I may as well be a fan boy with a reversible jersey of the bright orange puma shirt, and the most bland, navy Under Armour polo you find on the clearance rack in the back corner of a DICK’S Sporting Goods. I don’t think Rickie has golf sads as much as he just had a bad few months. Following the late fumble at Quail Hollow (I was there, flex), Rickie floundered at Aronimink then was awful in Fort Worth, Columbus and at Shinnecock. This course is not those courses. If we can get Rickie back to a comfortable spot where the driver can settle and the irons get hot, I am confident that Rickie will resurface with a good finish.

Billy Mouw… $7.3… I simply think William Mouw is a true ball striker. Where great iron play is required on difficult approaches, Billy Mouw tends to play well. His short game is awful, but if we are relying on a short game here, we’re already lost. Let the putter ride just a bit and we’ll get there.

Andrew Novak… $7.3… Just too cheap for the game he possesses. Ranks very high in my approach and putting projections.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
I have very minimal exposures below $7,000, with dashes of Glover, Paul Peterson and Chan Kim.

Plus4 Bets: John Deere Classic

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Thorbjornsen
Novak
Berger
Mouw

Debating Keegan Bradley or Gotterup as anchor.
If Spieth shows up with a new putter, he’s on the card.
If you’re a fan of the young phenom, go ahead and look at Koivun.
And if Bauchou hits 100, that may also be one.

Plus4 Player Pool: John Deere Classic

Anchors up top

Gotterup (or Griffin, if you so insist yourself)

The chosen one

Thorbjornsen

Veteran who is due for a fun weekend finish

• Fowler
• Spieth

The $7k plays that I think you should play

• Mouw
• Novak
• Berger
• Greyserman (pray for hot irons)

$7k plays that others insist is the correct one, and it just may be

• Suber
• Keefer
• Yu
• Rico Hoey

A guy I play because I’m chasing credit for a failed take 3 years ago

Davis Thompson

As always, GL GL GL.