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Straight from the overseeded Augusta National, the TOUR heads over to Hilton Head, SC for the 2026 edition of the RBC Heritage. Our analysis this week will be short and sweet, as the course breakdown sheet continues to hold the weight in outlining our process.
Scheduling note: with the team-style Zurich Classic next week, there will be no article. Additionally, future lower-tier events like the CJ CUP may be had without an article.
In January, I replatformed the full Plus4 model into MS Fabric notebooks… we now are in the midst of another semi-migration out of notebooks and into a more agile and functionalized process that should enable more backtesting and fluidity in further expanding the model
MODEL UPDATES:
With that, our model has a completely new backbone. Built on Microsoft Fabric, we now have 2 key metrics created and enforced with my data science sidekick, Claude. These 2 metrics will serve as endpoints to our analysis.
Skill-driven Corollary Course Metrics
Rather than treating courses as static, interchangeable entities, this model identifies corollary courses at the individual skill level. In this, we find those courses that share playing characteristics with our target course and use a player’s performance history at those analogues to infer likely performance at the target. The “skill-driven” layer means the correlation isn’t just course-to-course similarity; it’s filtered through which skills each course rewards.
It goes without saying that some players love Bermuda grass. Some players love hitting the ball left-to-right. Some players are better than others from the deep rough, and some players are great from tight greenside lies. Each course rewards these traits independently – now, we capture and score these individually.
Machine Learning SG: Total
A ML model for performance prediction models on features derived from two key analytical layers: exponential decay-weighted player history (emphasizing recent form) and a course correlation model that matches course stats at the target with historical event-level course difficulty across a number of dimensions (difficulty of strokes-gained putting, GIR %, number of water balls). This is still WIP but coming along as a feature.
Lineup Optimizer
As a bonus to me, I have built a lineup optimizer that takes my projections and scores lineups based on player’s projected performances and historical player-player correlations (who plays better, together?). I have manually hand-built these lineups for years, and the ultimate goal was to codify it in a way that the CPU could do it for me – we are 90% of the way there.
In future months, I’d love to deploy this to the masses. That’s a heavier engineering exercise than you’d expect.
In the AI age, you can be a builder. Have an idea, realize it.
Plus4: Harbour Town course notes
- Short-man paradise: The biggest thing about Harbour Town is that distance plays almost not factor in the final result. Being short is no issue, and shorter, older players always have a chance to compete around here. Here, Waialae, and Pebble Beach is where you will find more and more players hitting hybrids and 3-metals into advantageous areas rather than grabbing the big stick and going full bore.
- Still, off-the-tee is game: Harbour Town is notorious for being about angles. Gaining strokes off-the-tee here is more about hitting it to an area to create angles into small, tiered greens and less about distance or general accuracy. I believe this angles-driven OTT play even further boosts older and more experienced players. Shockingly, given the shorter distance here, Harbour Town routinely plays in the top 10 most difficult courses for off-the-tee play in the PGA Tour rota. Highlight guys who are posting great ball-striking numbers without major distance.
- Approach play over 150 yards: The largest advantage gained here is on approach over 150 yards. So many holes are forced layups into this range, and the play from this bucket can turn hard holes into birdie-opportunities, and allow players to get on a roll on these smaller Bermuda greens.
- Pete Dye: Famous for their nooks and knobs, Harbour Town is a quintessential Pete Dye course: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course at PGA West, TPC Scottsdale. You cannot overpower Harbour Town and must be ready to use finesse to fly up the leaderboard.
Plus4: Harbour Town corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Plus4 Picks: RBC Heritage
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Favorite Play:
Maverick McNealy – Mav fought back from a terrible Thursday to nestle in at 18th come Sunday afternoon in Augusta. This type of track is the Mav specialty… elite ARG play, blossoming approach play, and a nails putter. Always great at Pebble Beach, a 3rd place here last year, and somebody who simply fits this type of course at this type of event.
Russell Henley – If every course on TOUR was played on 6,000 yard courses that look like Lost Marsh Golf Course in Hammond, Indiana, Russell Henley would be Tiger Woods. Gladly, this is not the case. Harbour Town rewards that type of accurate, ball control play. The course comps prove it, looking at places like Waialae, TPC River Highlands, and Pebble Beach.
Star Anchor:
Scottie Scheffler – Mr. Scheffler came so close to running down Rory. After many weeks off, Scottie should and will be the clear favorite to win another tartan jacket. This doesn’t need much explanation. The most accurate, best ball-striker, best ARG, and amongst the best putter.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Fitz is not the longest player, and that should boost him here. A former winner, on great form, with great approach play inside the top 5% of players over 150 yards out.
Gut Check:
Daniel Berger – Our #1 Course Fit model of the week, Berger comes in off a poor Players and MC at The Masters. We really haven’t heard from Berger since he fumbled the Arnold Palmer. This is a great place to return to glory for a guy who has the accuracy, approach play, and history. 3rd here last year, 6th this year at Waialae.
Alex Noren – I struggle to model-out Alex Noren every week. In this, we trust the model. Nobody has a short game that models out like Noren’s on this types of greens. Sadly, Noren and I have a similar (disgusting) swing that covers the full ball to guide a butter cut out there. That type of shot plays here.
Kurt Kitayama – If you look at the profile, Kitayama does not profile for Harbour Town. That’s why we use the course data. 13th in our Fit model and markedly high on around-the-green play, which is extremely key here. That tells me that Kitayama is comfortable in the grain and with the flat stick. Top 5% of players over 150 yards on approach.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Sungjae Im – The chipping and putting will greatly help Sungjae this week, as he rates out amongst the highest in ARG play at corollary track, is best when he can club down, and at one point flashed consistently as a good ball-striker over 200 yards. At this price and with a number of 2026 rounds now under his belt, I like Sungjae. 1 year from now, Sungjae could be closer to $8,000 than this price.
Plus4 Bets: RBC Heritage
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: RBC Heritage
Due to the scheduling note, I will not have a full player pool. Lower number of lineups this week as I tighten my pool.
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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