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The azaleas are in bloom.
Patrons are beckoned back to the fairways of Augusta.
The first major of the year is here.
This is the 2026 Masters.
The storyline this week may be the lack of a singular player storyline heading into the weekend. Of the last many seasons, this may be the most “wide open” Augusta National we have seen.
The world leaders Scottie and Rory come in with odd form, with a baby birth and strikingly average approach play peeving Scottie, and Rory coming into Augusta National off a 2-week Florida stint marred by injury with little form to show.
The LIV boys in Rahm and Bryson are playing good across the pond… on FS2… at about 2:30am EST… but it’s unclear how we can trust that form leading into Augusta.
Meanwhile other key major champions in Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele have battled their own injuries and/or middling form leading into the week.
Meanwhile, a number of key players returning to Augusta seek their first major, including Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Victor Hovland and Bobby MacIntyre.
The Masters is notorious for rewarding players who have crossed the finish line this season. In the year of 2026, many of those PGA TOUR winners are debutants, like Jacob Bridgeman and Chris Gotterup, or players amidst a very steep rise (or reacclimation in Fitz’ form) like Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick.
I hardly remember a Masters like this, with so many competing storylines, trends and lead-in form. Herein, we will attempt to conquer the beast that is Augusta National GC.
Plus4 recap
It’s Masters Week. Let’s keep this quick: Bobby Mac cannot make the final push to secure a much-needed winner for Plus4. Our ownership on Ludvig was very high and without Tom Kim’s bag-fumbling from between 3 and 5 feet on Friday, we’d have something big time to talk about here.
That said, high on Ludvig, Bobby, Matt Wallace (shoutout!!!) and Oleson (lights too bright), I do see the model trending for the nearly unmodelable Augusta National GC.
Check out our special feature on lead-in form for the 2026 Masters.
A Special Project: Lead-in Form for the 2026 Masters Tournament
As the Masters approaches, a detailed analysis of course performance leading to Augusta highlights the significance of off-the-tee play. Key players identified include Min Woo Lee and Matt Fitzpatrick, showcasing promising early-season form.
MODEL UPDATES:
With that, our model has a completely new backbone. Built on Microsoft Fabric, we now have 2 key metrics created and enforced with my data science sidekick, Claude. These 2 metrics will serve as endpoints to our analysis.
Skill-driven Corollary Course Metrics
Rather than treating courses as static, interchangeable entities, this model identifies corollary courses at the individual skill level. In this, we find those courses that share playing characteristics with our target course and use a player’s performance history at those analogues to infer likely performance at the target. The “skill-driven” layer means the correlation isn’t just course-to-course similarity; it’s filtered through which skills each course rewards.
It goes without saying that some players love Bermuda grass. Some players love hitting the ball left-to-right. Some players are better than others from the deep rough, and some players are great from tight greenside lies. Each course rewards these traits independently – now, we capture and score these individually.
Machine Learning SG: Total
A ML model for performance prediction models on features derived from two key analytical layers: exponential decay-weighted player history (emphasizing recent form) and a course correlation model that matches course stats at the target with historical event-level course difficulty across a number of dimensions (difficulty of strokes-gained putting, GIR %, number of water balls). This is still WIP but coming along as a feature.
Lineup Optimizer
As a bonus to me, I have built a lineup optimizer that takes my projections and scores lineups based on player’s projected performances and historical player-player correlations (who plays better, together?). I have manually hand-built these lineups for years, and the ultimate goal was to codify it in a way that the CPU could do it for me – we are 90% of the way there.
In future months, I’d love to deploy this to the masses. That’s a heavier engineering exercise than you’d expect.
In the AI age, you can be a builder. Have an idea, realize it.
Plus4: Augusta National Golf Club course notes
Last year, Rory McIlroy’s very dramatic win led us once again down a path at Augusta National where driving accuracy played a large premium. Before 2020, Augusta was notorious a bomber’s track… you may hear this narrative, but as the year’s go by, “average distance” is becoming enough to at least hang in at Augusta National.
- Approach play premium: It is said time and again: Augusta is a 2nd-shot course. This is always the case, and I expect this year to be no different. You must be in complete control of your irons from 150-200 yards, off a plethora of uneven lies, to plateaued greens with danger (rarely hazard) looming on every side. Year in and out, there is not a course with a more demanding premium on approach play.
- Driving distance: Augusta has continued to lengthen itself over the years, defending itself amicably against added distance from equipment and fitness gains. I believe distance is key, but there’s a plateau effect. I’m not going to favor the longest players inherently, but rather be filtering out players who have below TOUR average in ball speed (~173 mph). You don’t need to be the longest, but you MUST be able to get drives out there far enough to put short irons in your hand – otherwise you stand zero chance in landing and controlling approaches on these devilish green tiers.
- Tight ARG lies: Augusta National, Pinehurst No. 2, St. Andrews. These 3 courses stand alone at the tip top of courses as relates to difficult of around-the-green play from tight lie fairways. I believe that this is where the Masters will be won; if Augusta plays in the way that tournaments hope it does, play in approach and fairway ARG lies is what will separate the winner from the rest of the board.
- Course history: It goes without saying that history at Augusta is key. Debutants struggle, and especially debutants who are trying to overpower the golf course. Young phenoms tend to succeed here as an initial blip in a lasting, successful career because they have the inherent willpower and short-game creativity demanded of the game’s best. Phil, Tiger, Sergio, Cantlay, Hideki, Bryson and Viktor have been low-ams and young talents like Rory, Spieth, and Rahm immediately showed some prowess here. If you think _____ will be a star, play him here.
Plus4: Augusta National Golf Club corollary courses
Go grab a look at our new ‘Course breakdown’ site.
“Form vs. Fit” at Augusta National
I fight in a mental battle weekly trying to balance a player’s lead-in form and trending play leading into an event vs. the “course fit” a player has for the event. This week, I sought out to tackle both. Below is a list of guys who figured well in both our Fit model and Masters lead-in form model.
Dual fit and form
- Lee, Min Woo
- Bridgeman, Jacob
- Hojgaard, Nicolai
- Reed, Patrick
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Kim, Si Woo
- Young, Cameron
- Gerard, Ryan
- Gotterup, Chris
- McNealy, Maverick
- MacIntyre, Robert
- Stevens, Sam
Neither fit nor form
- Henley, Russell
- Hovland, Viktor
- Spieth, Jordan
- Griffin, Ben
- Burns, Sam
- Straka, Sepp
- Thomas, Justin
- Lowry, Shane
- Berger, Daniel
- Bradley, Keegan
- Reitan, Kristoffer
- Harman, Brian
- Garcia, Sergio
Plus4 Picks: The Masters
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Favorite Play:
Tommy Fleetwood – After getting the TOUR Championship and “signature American win” monkey off his back, Tommy has put together none other than the quietest lead-in form of 4th, 7th, 8th and 10th. The driver (as we like to see) is trending even further up than it way. The distance is a touch higher than years past, and Tommy will need all of that distance to push it down into spots where he can select shorter clubs. The driver will need to set it up for Tommy – if that complies, his game elsewhere may be the very best in the field. More than anything, in an event where we don’t have a clear play, Tommy is the type of guy who can play in bunched leaderboard, make a few plays on Sunday, and actually hoist this trophy (to everybody’s shock).
Min Woo Lee – The chef loves the skate parks, and Augusta is the golden one. Min Woo’s buggaboo has always been the irons… he is not great when you have to stand up, hit a stock iron and trust it. That is the furthest thing from what’s required at Augusta… crazy slopes, the narrowest of targets, and massive undulation puts the advantage into the “feel it” players who ooze talent. Min Woo does just that, now in his 5th Masters with his best form of any point in his career. At $7,700 Min Woo can score and succeed for a massive finish at his DK price.
Matt Fitzpatrick – Fitzy will be among the most best players of the week, and for good reason. We have Fitz ranked 4th in our model, well above the $8,700 price point on DraftKings. Amazingly, this is Matt’s 11th Masters, with his best finish coming a decade ago. Fitz went through a steep drop in play a year ago, but the off-the-tee and approach play has made a striking reversal to put Fitz into the Top 6 in the world. I don’t love cross-hand chipping on this massive slopes and I don’t love that he is a low-ball player on a course that require flying the ball to tiered greens, but the numbers support the odds. Lead-in form? only runner-up and winner.
Star Anchor:
Bryson DeChambeau – I am typing this on Monday, so if he comes out Tuesday and says something wild, I can’t be blamed. Bryson comes in off 2 LIV wins, so we can in theory check the form box. He is the best driver of the ball in the world, so that may check the fit box. I am of the crew that said “the single-length wedges will not work at Augusta”. His stellar play at St. Andrews proved me wrong; winning at the skatepark that is Pinehurst proved me wrong; and back-to-back finishes of 5th and 6th again proves me wrong. When Bryson can come to another weekend at Augusta and know what to feel and how to react, he could legitimately win this event by a field goal. In a year where we have doubts on Scottie and doubts on Rory, could this be the magnum opus of The Scientist? Either way, he is an excellent DraftKings play.
Cameron Young – Young goes for a 3rd straight year of the Players Champion also wearing the Green Jacket. Cameron Young needs one thing to manage this week: spin control. He has never been able to do that here. If he does not, it will be tough sledding and a lot of unhappy bettors. A special LEFT LEFT DASH ProV1 ball helped Cam Young tackle THE PLAYERS, and he is now 3rd in off-the-tee in this field in the last 20 rounds. CUT, 9th, 7th, CUT for a player who comes to Augusta with more form and prowess that at any point in his budding career.
Gut Check:
Maverick McNealy – Shocking, Mav was only a debutant last year. As a guy perennially in the mix at good events and with an elite short game, Maverick will eventually pull it together in a major and post a stellar finish. Maverick’s driver continues to be pretty good, combined with an elite short game and good putting. We need a good iron display from Mav, and what strikes me is that many of Mav’s top “approach” performances are at very difficult courses. When difficulty ratches up and you are tasked with very tough approaches, Mav typically responds.
Nicolai Hojgaard – Hojgaard still may be too raw to tackle the beast that is ANGC, but he made a very respectable effort in his maiden journey in 2024. A progressing putter and extremely long player, the irons are what’s brought Nicolai to this new tier. A 2nd place finish leading into this week, another 3rd place in Phoenix, and top 15 at last year’s Open Championship, Nicolai comes to Augusta with good odds, great game, and 11 consecutive tournaments gaining on approach.
Si Woo Kim – Si Woo was always a “Pete Dye Dimer” – those types of guy’ have defining features of great short games and great mid-iron play. In the last year, Si Woo has taken that base and built a much stronger game around it: the off-the-tee play has gone from “accurate” to now a top 10 skill in the world. The irons have expanded from being good from 125-175 to 99th percentile from 150+ and 200+. The ARG play is still very strong. And of last note, Si Woo went to Australia and Alister MacKenzie’s Royal Melbourne and nearly took down the Aussie Open. No course in the world gets comps to Augusta like Melbourne… where Si Woo sat with Cam Smith (notoriously great ANGC player and would be better if the course were about 300 yards shorter) and Adam Scott (Masters Champion) behind Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Sam Stevens – Longer than average? Check. Progressing off-the-tee play leading into Augusta? Check. Good from tight lies around the greens? Check. A good, fly-ball approach player? One last check. Sam Stevens maiden voyage to Augusta National comes in a year where his off-the-tee and approach play have taken massive steps… and we can trust Sam Stevens scrambling in the skate park that is Augusta National. Maybe a better low debutant than a bet, but great form and fit nonetheless.
Plus4 Bets: The Masters
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: The Masters
I reserve the right to change my player pool! I will update this on Wednesday once I finalize the numbers. Please use the course fit tool as you hand-build lineups.
Presented in order of ownership.
- Lee, Min Woo ($7.7k)
- Fleetwood, Tommy ($9.3k)
- Fitzpatrick, Matt ($8.7k)
- Hojgaard, Nicolai ($7.5k)
- DeChambeau, Bryson ($10.2k)
- McNealy, Maverick ($7.2k)
- Kim, Si Woo ($7.8k)
- MacIntyre, Robert ($8.6k)
- Schauffele, Xander ($9.6k)
- Stevens, Sam ($6.4k)
- Young, Cameron ($9.2k)
- Bridgeman, Jacob ($7.4k)
- Aberg, Ludvig ($9.8k)
- English, Harris ($7.3k)
- Rai, Aaron ($6.8k)
- Spaun, J.J. ($7.2k)
- Gerard, Ryan ($6.8k)
As always, GL GL GL, and enjoy Golf’s Greatest Week at the 2026 Masters Tournament.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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