Plus4: Aronimink course notes

Aronimink is to no fault if its designer, designed for golf in a different era. A ~7,300 par 70 golf course on the outskirts of Philadelphia, it poses a unique test for the elite golfers of 2026. It’s defense: greenscapes on a wild scale, rough, and the weather (tbd?)

• Approach play under 125 and over 200: The projected approach bins this week tell a story of wedges on Par 4s, and over 200 yards nearly everywhere else. Only 2 of the 12 par 4s here at Aronimink will pose a “challenge” of distance to the professionals this week. Expect a number of short wedges, with spin control as the premium for the elite ball-strikers this week.
• Bunker play: I greatly suspect that bunker play will have a keen impact on the 2026 PGA Championship. THE MINK is littered with bunkers, and those serve a strategic defense of these very large and dramatic greens. My model has made a clear indication that bunker play around-the-greens will play a factor… if you do happen to be missing greens, aim for the sand as the gangly rough greenside combined with fast and dramatic greens will make short a crap shoot.
• Lag putting: The viewers will immediately make note of some very dramatic greens. These greens are very large, and their spines running in and along the greens pose a huge risk for those golfers who are either (a) on the wrong shelf and / or (b) needing to cross spines.

Plus4 Picks: PGA Championship

My themes for this week are as follows:

• Approach at Aronimink will be just as much about controlling the ball on the as it is in the air. At the top of our model are guys like Justin Thomas, Rasmus Hojgaard, Scottie, Cam Young, Keegan Bradley… these are really high-spin golfers who can use this spin to manage balls on the ground just as much as fly it to the spot.
• Meanwhile, the bottom of the model has guys like Harman, Ludvig, Homa, Henley, Collin and Bryson… as an eye-test, guys that don’t generate enormous spin or, in Bryson’s case, simply can’t control it. Cam Young’s greatest improvement of the last 18 months from my semi-trained eye? He found a ball and a swing that finally enabled him to manage spin.
• Analyze the Approach and Around-the-Green course fits in our Course Breakdown, and you will see that even at a course that is only 7,300 yards and is expected to put wedges in hand, most of the high-fit players in my model gain in distance.
• Distance carries through the bag. This is in ability to create spin with wedges, be able to manage think greenside rough, and the ability to manage the 3 210+ yard par 3s, and be able to manage the very long and difficult closing stretch.
• Lag-putting will be very key. Two courses at the top of my model are TPC San Antonio and Innisbrook… run of the mill PGA Tour venues, but venues that have greens and play styles that will tend to give you long putts through some shelfs.
• In general, PGA Tour players don’t see greens like this often… in our putting model includes Royal Portrush, Royal Troon, St. Andrews, Southern Hills and Brookline. Those are very difficult putting tests and should instruct who will be able to manage the greens this week.

Looking for your favorite player? Visit our course breakdown site to see they rate out.

Favorite Play:
Cameron Young ($10.2k) – Simply way. too. cheap. Cameron Young should and is the 3rd best golfer in this field. He should not be $2,200 below Rory, and not be $3,700 below Scottie. A Northeast golfer, a now elite wedge player, a pretty fantastic wedge putter, and a guy whose mounting achievement is meant to be on a golf course in the northeast corridor.

I’m in a deep struggle choosing one of Xander and Cameron Young. Xander ranks #3 in our course fit model and rates very well off-the-tee and on approach. The lead-in form did it for me, but note that my final score for Xander rivals Cameron Young closely. In other words, choose your fighter.

Star Anchor:
Scottie ($13.9k) – With a lot of value in the 6s and little value (from my eye) between $7,500 and $9,400, you CAN play Scottie. Mix in a few earnest 6s and 7s and be on your way. Scottie is 7th in my course-fit score… a score that measures player performance against their own expectations. Given Scottie has the highest expectations of any golfer on Earth, that’s a scary proposition. It will be cold this week, and it must be known that among the 1000s of photos on Google of Scottie Scheffler holding a trophy, you will be hard-pressed to find a photo of Scottie doing that in a quarter zip! Strokes-Gained: Heat is Scottie Scheffler.

Gut Check:
Justin Thomas ($9.4k) – The closer we get to Thursday, the more I think of Southern Hills, the site of JT’s PGA Championship win in 2022. A 7,400 yard course to dramatic greenscapes… and leaderboard of JT, Zalatoris, Mito, and Cameron Young. All great approach players, but all LONGER than most and high-spin players. If we are looking for the guy who can take the iron play to another level, it is no other than Justin Thomas. Since that 2022 PGA Championship, JT has 15 major starts… and only a single top 10. This week, at a price that should deflect ownership, we get a course that should fit JT nicely.

Keegan Bradley ($7.4k) – I spoke up Keegan last week as a guy who is peaking for the PGA. Our last winner here at Aronimink, Keegan will admit that the 2018 BMW Championship will play very little like the 2026 PGA Championship. That said, Keegan rates out very well across the bag and plays all of the northeast courses very well. Due to the agronomy, these northeast courses simply tend to have more dramatic, minute slopes than other places. It is what makes Golden Age course of the Northeast the beauties that they are.

Other contenders:
– Bobby Mac if the wind picks up.
– Tommy rates out SUPER well, but is simply a guy I don’t usually play.
– Berger, Woodland and Koepka is the putter luck runs their way.
– Even 3 years ago, this would have been Dustin Johnson’s JAM.
– There is no reason Ben Griffin can’t play fantastic here.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Rasmus Hojgaard ($6.5k) – EVERYBODY WILL PLAY HIS BROTHER. It’s as if DraftKings is setting up the irony here. Nicolai has his best stretch as pro, comes into PGA off a fantastic Quail Hollow finish, and is priced on DraftKings right next to his brother. Rasmus was supposed to be the phenom… and then it was Nicolai… what if they are both elite? Rasmus is #1 in my course fit adjustment and while Nicolai himself is #11 in the same model, Rasmus will carry at least a fifth of the ownership of Nicolai.

Thomas Detry ($6.1k) – Detry is on a hot streak by LIV’s standard. Multiple top 5 finishes and elite iron play. Detry himself was right up in the final groups at Valhalla, and can make birdies with the best of ’em. At only $6.1k, Detry fits any and all lineups alongside any narrative you want to put together.

David Puig ($6.2k) – There is a theme here… young bombers who putt. Puig fits this build. Puig a winner in Australia over the Fall. The LIV lead-in closed with a Sunday 64, and PUUUIIIGGGG’s approach bins support under 100 and over 200 yards, just as we hope.

Pierceson Coody ($6,3k) – I have my own reservations here as the lag putting has been bad and Coody has taken a step back since a back injury earlier this spring. The modelling screams Coody, and the public is picking up some of the scent.

Other contenders: Ricky Castillo if he can NOT 3-putt.

Favorite Sub-$6,000:
Bud Cauley
Daniel Hillier
Max Greyserman
Stewart Cink
Andrew Putnam
John Parry

Plus4 Bets: PGA Championship

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

In the betting streets, I would be very shocked if we did not get a very high caliber winner here. My course fit bubbles up great scores for those at the top, such as Scottie, Rory, Cam, Xander and JT… while really deflating many of the others in the betting ranges of 30/1 to 75/1.

With that:

• Cam Young 14/1
• Xander 19/1
• David Puig Top 10
• Andrew Putnam Top 20
• Stewart Cink Top 20
• Ludvig Aberg NOT Top 20 (Kalshi) – I have seen Ludvig completely lose sight of his wedge game when the grounds get glassy and difficult. Ludvig is 3rd-to-last in my course-fit model. This is my Hater Play of The Week.

Looking at placement markets for Cauley, Valimaki, Keegan, Castillo, and generally both Hojgaards. My recent discovery of Kalshi ‘No’ markets makes me a loose cannon.

As always, GL GL GL.

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