It’s BIBIGO time. If you don’t remember hearing this last year 20 times per viewing window, good on you. For the rest of us, get the mute button ready – your sanity depends on it.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson brings us to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, TX. Is it the CJ Cup? Is it the Byron Nelson? Nobody knows. It’s a weird amalgamation of a corporate event, a crazy field, an event named and (barely) branded after a legend, and a fairly disliked muni-looking course… that doesn’t mean we won’t watch all weekend and sweat potential winners.

Scottie leads the roster of 156 players teeing it up this week – this is a FULL FULL field, the largest we see at a single-course event. Outside of Scottie, the tee sheet is a mixed bag… if you have a favorite barely-PGA-caliber golfer, he’s probably teeing it up. My guy S.H. Kim didn’t get the nod, but you Tosti-migos are in luck.

Let’s go!

Plus4: TPC Craig Ranch

• Easy golf: Of the 43 courses in datagolf’s course stats database last year, TPC Craig Ranch ranked as the 4th-easiest in strokes-gained putting, easiest around-the-green, and next-to-easiest in approach. Whilst being a pretty long course relative-to-par (Par 71), nothing about TPC Craig Ranch is hard. I believe this helps guys who are in relatively good form and can keep momentum rolling. Looking at corollary courses… this lends itself to guys who have played well at the Kapaluas, Vidantas, Torrey North Course, and Detroit of the world.
• Approach play over 150 yards: In 2024, over 75% of approach shots came from over 150 yards out, with about 37% coming from over 200 yards. With long par 3s and a few holes that force plays into long-approach bins, accuracy from this range will be demanded. We seek golfers who succeed in their longer approach bins.
• A “weak-link” golf course: Leaders here have used a very balanced skill-set on their way to success… you need to be long-enough OTT to get irons in your hands to get to these pins, have an above-baseline short-game to capitalize on the long par 5s, and have a putter that can get hot to go low enough to win (this has been Scottie’s achilles heel in the past). No skill dominates at TPC Craig Ranch – I’ll look to remove guys who have a clear weak link in their game right now.

Plus4: TPC Craig Ranch corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. HARBOUR TOWN GOLF LINKS – Interesting case study on “course fit” as these events have lined up as many players back-to-back starts. I chalk this up somewhat to the case for “good form” here.
2. NINE BRIDGES – …the site of the old, real CJ CUP. I do think the courses favor each other, but also both fields have a large number of Koreans with CJ as the lead sponsor.
3. PORT ROYAL GOLF COURSE – similar need for a balanced skill-set from top to bottom.
4. DETROIT – very easy golf course.
5. PLANTATION COURSE AT KAPALUA – also very easy golf course with some long, long holes.
6. VIDANTA VALLARTA – an easy, wide open, and long golf course.
7. TORREY PINES (NORTH COURSE) – an easy, wide open, and long golf course .
8. RIVIERA – long approach bins where you need to be out there enough to attack.
9. CC OF JACKSON – an easy golf course
10. SEA ISLAND (PLANTATION COURSE)

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at TPC Craig Ranch

This is a short list this week, because there are SO MANY guys who rate well. This is to expect when the field is 156 – these are my strongest gut checks, but check the player pool for more.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Jordan Spieth: Spieth’s ball-striking is up and down, but his new preferred approach bins look distinctly to be from over 200+ and under 50 yards. His run of form includes 4 top 20s in 6 starts, and now we are in Texas. Despite the driving bump this year, the ball speed numbers had not acclimated to his old numbers… until Harbour Town where he crossed the 177mph threshold. Those are speed numbers that Speith can win big boy championships at.
2. Stephen Jaeger: Good from deep approach buckets, good on these types of greensides, good in Texas, and was good in Mexico. Very-balanced game that’s been waiting to pop.
3. Ryo Hisatsune: Everybody likes Ryo now. If I had this blog a year ago, all of you would have seen the money I poured into this kid only to reap no reward. He’s turned the corner this year and is a legitimate guy on tracks like these – and maybe in an Open Championship. Great short game, good long irons, and a steadying driver.
4. Taylor Moore: Moore’s speed numbers went through rut, but they look to have bubbled back up after over a month off. High-risk, high-reward player who can make birdies and play Texas conditions. 3 top 10s at Detroit, solid starts at many corollary spots.
5. Cam Davis: Cam was awful to start the year and now has 2 straight top 30s to show life. He was a President’s Cup caliber guy so recently and was expected to make a big jump. He plays well at this type of track (winner in Detroit) and the ball speed recently was back to his 2024 numbers.
6. Mark Hubbard: He can’t putt right now. Let’s change that in Texas. His speed numbers were also down a good amount at the begging of the year, but his last start was back to TOUR average and he loves the long-approach bins.
7. Tommy Morrison: He’s a Junior at UT-Austin who played and made the cut in the Open Championship last year. Why’s he on here? He’s freakin’ 6’9″. Somebody get the Dallas Mavs out to TPC Craig Ranch.

A look behind the Plus4 model:

Below is a metric I’ve been using, analyzing course history through a normalized and decayed measure. For all players in the field, you can see a breakdown of how players perform at the courses our plus4 analysis deems corollary courses.

Player-by-player corollary course performance, ordered by DraftKings price.

To be updated Wednesday.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
My only current outright is on Chan Kim. Hisatsune and Moore should get my money eventually, with deeper Top 10s and 20s around Goodwin, Lower, and Pak.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Favorite Play:
Taylor Moore ($7.5k)
Star Anchor:
Speith, Jaeger, Burns, Pendrith all relatively even. All 4 of these guys rate well and seem to be rising out of middling points of their year. Most will believe that Ben An and Sungjae are the best in this range, but what I see from their speed numbers and strokes-gained is an unsustainable bump in short-game play that’s not backed by speed.
Gut Check:
Kevin Yu ($7.8k). The CC of Jackson winner is a legitimate ball-striker and comes in off 2 cuts that seems to be draining his ownership.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
(complete dart) Mark Hubbard

One & Done: Ill-advised Taylor Moore. I need to make up ground quick.

Strategy this week is to get exposure across a huge number of guys – it is tough to distill a 156-man field, and the long list of players is evidence of that. Still, with a long list you can build corollary lineups based on skillsets, overlapping course histories, and tee-time waves to ensure you get different whilst having complementary guys.

Very overweight

1. Jaeger, Stephan ($9.3k)
2. Spieth, Jordan ($10.5k)
3. Burns, Sam ($9.8k)
4. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($8.9k)
5. Kim, Chan ($7.4k)
6. Davis, Cam ($7.1k)
7. Pendrith, Taylor ($9.6k)
8. Springer, Hayden ($7k)
9. Hubbard, Mark ($6.7k)
10. Moore, Taylor ($7.5k)
11. Hisatsune, Ryo ($8.3k)
12. Yu, Kevin ($7.8k)
13. Castillo, Ricky ($7k)
14. Tosti, Alejandro ($7.3k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($13.3k)
2. Griffin, Ben ($9.2k)
3. Knapp, Jake ($8.4k)
4. Rodgers, Patrick ($7.4k)
5. Lower, Justin ($7.1k)

Under $7.0k

1. Walker, Danny ($6.6k)
2. Goodwin, Noah ($6.4k)
3. Onishi, Kaito ($6.1k)
4. Pak, John ($6.2k)

FOMO

1. Zalatoris, Will ($8.8k)
2. Gotterup, Chris ($7k)
3. Wu, Dylan ($6.7k)
4. Cummins, Quade ($6.9k)
5. Campbell, Brian ($6.8k)

As always, GL GL GL.