Sunday gave us the most dramatic afternoon in my golf-spectating history. Rory reiterated the fact that he becomes completely insane in the largest moments, and it feels like a miracle that he was able to pull it off.

Down bad on 1, back up on 4 and 5, taking full control at 9 and 10, cracking on 11 and relinquishing all momentum on 13 and 14, becoming the greatest golfer ever on 15 and 17, and faltering once again on 18.

You could not write a ‘Holywood’ (nice) script better, and if you did, they’d call you insane because a mental midget like me (the audience) can’t take that much emotional swing. Low and behold, he did it.

The greatest competitors have the greatest ability to suffocate their competition… they take every little edge, they never make the mistake, and they steadily squeeze the life from their opponents. This is Tiger, and really is Scottie, and was Jack. It’s what Tom Brady was. Jordan. Djokovic even. It’s what great boxers do. Jab, jab, jab, and then a final blow when the competitor is already mentally beaten.

What is so clear is that Rory McIlroy does not bring that instinct on the biggest stages… every major battle Rory is in becomes a heavyweight bout, a prodding of big blows back and forth with a competitor who actually believes they can win and keeps swinging as if they believe they will. If today was the catalyst that brings Rory into a new energy where he can play with the mental fortitude of those listed above, there is no counting as to how many majors he could win.

Plus4 Recap:

On that note, Masters picks were not great. Patrick Reed cashed a very fun top 5 and kept us treading water. Select prop bets also came through if you were following along on X. Detry could not chip, Morikawa could not putt, and Adam Scott was the wrong pivot from Sergio. Rose rated out well, but I got cute!

It is never fun to have a losing week, but we will rebound next year and are still riding high from Valero. Augusta is predictably difficult to comp, because every golfer brings their A-game and usually can overcome any stylistic issues if they are in full control of their ball. It’s why every great player, regardless of their fit, tends to have a moment or two on The Sacred Sod.

In what makes little sense in the schedule, the PGA TOUR rolls straight off the biggest week in golf into an elevated RBC Heritage event on Hilton Head. An event that usually feels like a cool-down for so many of these players, on a well-known course, that promotes plodding, in a family-friendly community.

Peep the new logo!

Scheduling note: with the team-style Zurich Classic next week, there will be no article. As the Summer rolls around, the schedule gets thin and events with no prior year course data such as the Truist Championship and RBC Canadian Open will most likely be skipped as well.

Plus4: Harbour Town Golf Links

• Short-man paradise: The biggest thing about Harbour Town is that distance plays almost not factor in the final result. Being short is no issue, and shorter, older players always have a chance to compete around here. Here and Pebble Beach is where you will find more and more players hitting hybrids and 3-metals into advantageous areas.
• Still, off-the-tee is game: Harbour Town is notorious for being about angles. Gaining strokes off-the-tee here is more about hitting it to an area to create angles into small, tiered greens and less about distance or general accuracy. I believe this angles-driven OTT play even further boosts older and more experienced players. Shockingly given the shorter distance here, Harbour Town routinely plays in the top 10 most difficult courses for off-the-tee play in the PGA Tour rota. Highlight guys who are posting great ball-striking numbers without major distance.
• Approach play over 150 yards: The largest advantage gained here is on approach over 150 yards. So many holes are forced layups into this range, and the play from this bucket can turn hard holes into birdie-opportunities, and allow players to get on a roll on these Bermuda greens.
• Pete Dye: Famous for their nooks and knobs, Harbour Town is a quintessential Pete Dye course: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course at PGA West, TPC Scottsdale. You cannot overpower Harbour Town and must be ready to use finesse to fly up the leaderboard.

Plus4: Harbour Town Golf Links corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. COLONIAL – a course built to allow shorter players to compete.
2. ALBATROSS GOLF RESORT
3. MARCO SIMONE
4. TPC CRAIG RANCH – long approaches and very easy around-the-green.
5. EL CAMALEÓN GOLF COURSE AT MAYAKOBA – driving accuracy is critically important.
6. WAIALAE – a course built to allow shorter players to compete.
7. SEA ISLAND (SEASIDE COURSE) – plodder, lay-up course with long approaches.
8. TPC SOUTHWIND – long approach bins.
9. SEDGEFIELD – bermuda course in the Carolinas!
10. DETROIT

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at Harbour Town

Ranked by projected skill

1. Collin Morikawa: I’m a huge sucker for playing Collin again, but I can’t look past the course fit. Two top 10s here in 5 starts and great at other shorter courses like Kapalua, Colonial, Detroit and Southwind. Outside Scottie, the most talented approach player from 150-200 yards. Will the putter cooperate?
2. Patrick Cantlay: The short game abandoned Cantlay last week. Good thing the 15th hole at Augusta doesn’t exist in Hilton Head as Cantlay won’t lose a full sleeve of balls this time. His prior times out here: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. At the 11 corollary tracks he’s played at since 2021, he has a top 4 finish at 8 of them and a top 14 finish at another 2.
3. Daniel Berger: I am ready to take the plunge with Danny B. His approach play is now rounding into great form, and his style matches Harbour Town perfectly. Prior to his leave, he dominated these shorter tracks on TOUR – Berger is BACK.
4. Denny McCarthy: Denny keeps stringing together great results. I’ve mentioned it this year once: the ball speed numbers for Denny this year are up a good 3-4 mph. If he is driving the ball just at TOUR average (like he is right now), the floor on Denny becomes so much higher while that potential for a 10-stroke-putting-gain remains. Plays consistently well at almost all of the corollary tracks, highlighted by top 10s at Southwind, Sea Island, Sedgefield and TPC River Highlands.
5. Aaron Rai: I’m rarely a Rai guy, but this is a great course fit. Accuracy, long irons, easy ARG, and roll just a few putts. Winner at Sedgefield last year, 4th at Craig Ranch.
6. JT Poston: Poston has not popped since the western swing. For whatever it is, I believe JT struggles in Florida – he just needs to be a baseline driver of the golf ball, and in Florida, that falters. The iron play has tapered off but should reacclimate soon. 3 top 10s at Harbour Town and a great player at Pete Dye tracks that tend to strip down the bombers.
7. Sam Burns: This is more of a flier. Sammy Burns has been pretty erratic recently and cannot avoid big numbers. The irons are squirrelly, driver looks uncomfortable and short-game has been well below his standard. If there’s a course where Sam can re-simplify his game, it should be on these favorable Bermuda greens. A runner-up at Craig ranch, winner at Colonial, CC of Jackson and twice at Innisbrook… it feels like we are buying the bottom of a 28-year-old 5-time TOUR winner who has been on back-to-back-back Team USA rosters.
8. Chris Kirk: This is more of a DraftKings play at $6.1k and at originally 250/1 odds. The putter abandoned Chris for months, but at Sawgrass and Augusta he averaged a stroke gained on great fields. Had it been for a 9 on the 13th on Thursday, Kirk would’ve been in line to post a top 20 at Augusta – and if that’s the case, this number is 150/1 not 250/1. I think Kirk is also at his floor returning to a place that fits him with his most favorable greens type.

A look behind the Plus4 model:

Below is a metric I’ve been using, analyzing course history through a normalized and decayed measure. For all players in the field, you can see a breakdown of how players perform at the courses our plus4 analysis deems corollary courses.

Player-by-player corollary course performance, ordered by DraftKings price.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/anQmQ/embed.js

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
I found the shades of green on my Custom Model to be almost hilarious. There shouldn’t be this much value on an odds board. I can’t blame you for betting any of the guys below – it’s that perfect collection of guys who lean on mid-irons, love Pete Dye, and/or love the rota of shorter, Bermuda courses that come in the Carolinas.

I will have small ‘winner without’ bets, top 5s and most of my position in top 10 bets on the below:

• J.T. Poston
• Aaron Rai
• Daniel Berger
• Billy Horschel
• Ryo Hisatsune
• Chris Kirk

And for my final trick to make my money disappear, Collin Morikawa at 11/1.

At Corales (opposite field event) which we will not be breaking down: Ben Griffin 18/1 GRIFFIN WD

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Favorite Play:
Berger ($8.3k)
Star Anchor:
Morikawa ($10.9k), Cantlay ($10k), X ($10.4k)
Gut Check:
Burns ($7k), Denny ($7.9k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Chris Kirk ($6.1k)

One & Done: Daniel Berger

Very overweight

1. Morikawa, Collin ($10.9k)
2. Schauffele, Xander ($10.4k)
3. Cantlay, Patrick ($10k)
4. Berger, Daniel ($8.3k)
5. McCarthy, Denny ($7.9k)
6. Rai, Aaron ($7.9k)
7. Poston, J.T. ($7.8k)
8. Burns, Sam ($7k)
9. Horschel, Billy ($6.8k)
10. Kirk, Chris ($6.1k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Conners, Corey ($9.8k)
2. Fleetwood, Tommy ($9.4k)
3. Straka, Sepp ($8.8k)
4. Pendrith, Taylor ($7.3k)

Under $7.0k

1. Jaeger, Stephan ($6.9k)
2. Glover, Lucas ($6.9k)
3. Cole, Eric ($6.4k)
4. Hisatsune, Ryo ($6.3k)

FOMO

1. Henley, Russell ($9.7k)
2. Harman, Brian ($7.6k)
3. McNealy, Maverick ($8.1k)
4. Theegala, Sahith ($7.3k)
5. English, Harris ($7.2k)

As always, GL GL GL.