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Masters week rolls on! We are nearly a day away from the first major of the year, and the buzz is palpable in the streets. Rory’s conquest of a green jacket. Scottie’s attempt to win 3 of 4 green jackets and ascend to the rarest of air. Morikawa and Justin Thomas trying to quell demons. LIV guys!
If you missed Sunday’s post, check out this week’s 2025 Masters Tournament: Course Preview, Corollary Courses, and Player Insights! post for a more detailed look into the course and our players to watch.
The below content will exclusively feature my picks, one & done, and DFS player pool.
Plus4 Board
Open outright bets:
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
I have been loving “Winner Without” markets, especially in these extremely strong fields with so much top-heavy win equity. Great players win The Masters, and if I can steal “winner” value on a guy who loses by a field goal to Scottie, Rory, or both, I will vote to do that.
Winner without bets below exclude Scottie, Rory, Aberg, Collin and Rahm, which in theory, could give me a Collin outright bet and another high-odds winner if I hit the exacta.
- Morikawa: 18/1 outright and top 5
- Cantlay: 22/1 winner without, top 5
- MacIntyre: 30/1 winner without, top 5
- Reed: 45/1 winner without, top 5
- Detry: 80/1 winner without, top 5, top 10
- Poston: 90/1 winner without, top 5, top 10
Favorite Play:
Collin Morikawa ($10.5k) – It’s his time. I believe the fumbles late in big tournaments over the last 12 month have put Collin in a headspace where he will not surrender. Collin opens with a 65, meddles to 70, 70 over the weekend, and closes with a 68 to win by a field goal.
Star Anchor:
My wallet wants Collin but my heart wants to see Rory in green. My ownership in this range goes Xander, Rory, Scottie, then drops steep to little Rahm. So much is on Collin that the spread here is rather thin.
Gut Check:
Cantlay ($8.7k) – I am confident than when the numbers post on Thursday, Cantlay will be underowned. People are over the shtick, but the price is now low enough and the form just trending enough, where I see a perfect storm for a guy who (ducks) can legitimately win a green jacket. For him to win, I expect the leaderboard will have to collapse around him… we’ve seen that here before many times.
MacIntyre ($8.0k) – Simply too good to be priced here. He’s a top 15 driver of the golf ball in the world right now, and that’s not his prowess historically.
Scott ($7.2k) – As noted in the player preview, I expect Adam Scott to have a late-career renaissance. No better time than now. GREAT pivot from Keegan Bradley and Sergio just below.
Reed ($7.3k) – A killer at Augusta. The driver is great here and the short game is a weapon.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Thomas Detry ($6.9k) – This is dumb, but Detry is my 2nd-highest owned player by total entry. As I used my process to build lineups, he just kept filtering in. Sneaky great in majors last year, now a PGA TOUR winner as of the Phoenix Open, and hopefully a killer that takes Augusta by storm.
One & Done: Morikawa
I’ve chosen to hammer Collin, make a stand on guys down low, and sprinkle across a number of players up top. The pricing and modeling put me in spots where I didn’t want to fade some top players but wasn’t comfortable getting over-exposed.
Scottie is so expensive that it is tough to build many lineups that I realistically believe have the upside to win a GPP. Meanwhile, my heart wants Rory to win and Xander is so logically an easy play at $9.7k that he couldn’t be passed up.
Very overweight
- Morikawa, Collin ($10.5k)
- Hovland, Viktor ($9.2k)
- Cantlay, Patrick ($8.7k)
- MacIntyre, Robert ($8k)
- Reed, Patrick ($7.3k)
- Detry, Thomas ($6.9k)
- Bhatia, Akshay ($8.1k)
- Scott, Adam ($7.2k)
- Straka, Sepp ($7.6k)
- Thompson, Davis ($7k)
- Poston, J.T. ($6.5k)
- Greyserman, Max ($6.6k)
Star anchors
- Scheffler, Scottie ($12.4k)
- McIlroy, Rory ($11.1k)
- Schauffele, Xander ($9.7k)
- Lee, Min Woo ($8.5k)
Under $7.0k
- Highsmith, Joe ($6.3k)
- Echavarria, Nico ($6.4k)
Guys like Glover and McCarthy will be popular down here, alongside highly-skilled players like Rai and Pendrith, but I stand by my own gut checks!
I’m afraid to not play Charl Schwartzel and he’s a viable $6.2k play given his runner-up at Doral last week. Thriston Lawrence was a late cut given his poor form recently and my desire to play a vet like Poston and a guy with amazing course fit in Greyserman.
FOMO (light exposure)
- Rahm, Jon ($10.4k)
- Spieth, Jordan ($9k)
- Niemann, Joaquin ($9.3k)
- Finau, Tony ($7.8k)
- Theegala, Sahith ($7.7k)
- Garcia, Sergio ($7.1k)
- McNealy, Maverick ($7.1k)
I will admit to you all that I have a lineup or two each across Bryson, Hideki, JT, and Cam Smith as they all rate well for their own reasons.
Call a friend, call a family member, call a loved one, and talk about The Masters. It bonds men and women of size, shape and age.
As always, GL GL GL.
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