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The azaleas are in bloom. Spring brings (fabricated) calls of birds from high in the trees. Patrons are beckoned back to the fairways of Augusta. The first major of the year is here.

A change from the week-over-week grind that the first 14 weeks of the PGA TOUR brings, the major season sparks a new turn. Many golf fans come out for the first time as I see the golf season hit a peak, with the season settling into a smooth 4-month stretch through the majors. These next 4 months ALWAYS have a different heartbeat than the first part of the season, and we should expect players who have little to no form right now to play fantastic golf through the majors.

At the Masters, form is good, but fit is paramount.

Plus4 Recap:

It’s Masters week… I’ll try to keep it quick.

As seen on X, we took down the big $5 contest with a whopping $50,000 up top. My 2nd best hit ever and a 5th career hit over $20,000. It was a big sweat down the stretch as Harman hung on and Hoge, Maverick and Gerard made it to the house – I can’t hit an outright bet for my life, but the DFS entries continue to fly high, as realized on Sunday!

We are HOT heading into The Masters and the model tweaks installed over the prior 2 months only bring more confidence.

we did it. 50 big.

Thanks to Mr. Brian Harman, we took down the BIG $5! Mav and Gerard extend great runs of form, and Hoge did just enough to secure T5.

The name "Shrimpy" is hereby RETIRED! Hang it in the rafters!

My entire player pool was featured at https://t.co/hunPyoAvzn. pic.twitter.com/639XVk3LT0

— Jack @ plus4.blog (@plus4blog) April 7, 2025

Plus4: Augusta National Golf Club

What to look for in players preparing to tee it up at Augusta National.

• Approach play premium: It is said time and again: Augusta is a 2nd-shot course. This is always the case, and I expect this year to be no different. You must be in complete control of your irons from 150-200 yards, off a plethora of uneven lies, to plateaued greens with danger (rarely hazard) looming on every side. Year in and out, there is not a course with a more demanding premium on approach play.
• Driving distance: Augusta has continued to lengthen itself over the years, defending itself amicably against added distance from equipment and fitness gains. I believe distance is key, but there’s a plateau effect. I’m not going to favor the longest players inherently, but rather be filtering out players who have below TOUR average in ball speed (~173 mph). You don’t need to be the longest, but you MUST be able to get drives out there far enough to put short irons in your hand – otherwise you stand zero chance in landing and controlling approaches on these devilish green tiers.
• Tight ARG lies: Augusta National, Pinehurst No. 2, St. Andrews. These 3 courses stand alone at the tip top of courses as relates to difficult of around-the-green play from tight lie fairways. I believe that this is where the Masters will be won; if Augusta plays in the way that tournaments hope it does, play in approach and fairway ARG lies is what will separate the winner from the rest of the board. Early weather suggests that this should be the case and I suspect a winner on firm and fast greens to be no lower than -10.
• Course history: It goes without saying that history at Augusta is key. Debutants struggle, and especially debutants who are trying to overpower the golf course. Young phenoms tend to succeed here as an initial blip in a lasting, successful career because they have the inherent willpower and short-game creativity demanded of the game’s best. Phil, Tiger, Sergio, Cantlay, Hideki, Bryson and Viktor have been low-ams and young talents like Rory, Spieth, and Rahm immediately showed some prowess here. If you think _____ will be a star, play him here.

Plus4: Augusta National Golf Club corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

They say Augusta is one-of-one and can’t be comped. I say they are wrong.

PGA TOUR event rota:

1. Trump National Doral – LIV was smart to prep their guys at Doral this week. More demanding off-the-tee than Augusta, but equally as challenging on approach. If you are striking your way through Doral, that can translate to Augusta.
2. Albany – very similar approach profile (150+)
3. Riviera – critical demand on ARG play to survive.
4. Kapalua – elevation changes and big fairways.
5. TPC Deere Run – difficult ARG and big elevation change.
6. Muirfield Village – outrageously difficult approach play.
7. Silverado Resort – difficult ARG.
8. Liberty National

DP World Tour:

1. Albatross
2. Valderrama – always difficult.
3. Al Hamra
4. Mount Juliet Estate
5. Hong Kong – significant elevation changes.
6. Crans-Sur-Sierre – significant elevation changes.
7. Royal Queensland

Major venues:

1. Pinehurst – significant elevation changes and tight ARG lies.
2. Southern Hills – significant elevation changes.
3. St. Andrews Old Course – OTT forgiveness and tight ARG lies .
4. Royal St. Georges – very difficult ARG.
5. Royal Troon – very difficult ARG.
6. Valhalla – length demanded to get to correct shelves.
7. Ocean Course at Kiawah – length demanded to get to correct shelves.

Below charts the finish position of players in the Masters field at the above corollary courses (EURO courses omitted), including the LIV players, in events played since the start of 2024. This analysis doesn’t map exactly to what I will be looking at (long-term course correlation), but gives a good indicator to who could pop. This is not adjusted for field strength or field size, but interesting to analyze based on raw finish position.

A cut is 150 value, WD is 151 value. 2025 LIV Doral not included below.

• Collin may be the sleeping giant after spurning everybody at API.
• Sergio doing great at all of the corollary courses on LIV.
• Detry is simply a different guy this year.
• Greyserman is an early pop in the larger model.

A look behind the model:

Some may know that I was in a 10-day micro-retirement before starting a new job this Monday… wish me luck. A beautiful moment that ceremoniously came with a week full of rain, illness and bad weather. Lucky for y’all, I took the time inside to find app.datawrapper.de and the ability to embed elements of my model into the page here. As noted in Plus4 approach page, all raw data is sourced from datagolf.com.

Below is a new metric I’ve been using, analyzing course history through a normalized and decayed measure. For all players in the Masters field, you can see a breakdown of how players perform at the courses our plus4 analysis deems corollary courses.

Player-by-player normalized and decayed corollary course performance, ordered by DraftKings price.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LYmIc/embed.js

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at The Masters Tournament

Ranked by projected skill

Mains

1. Scottie Scheffler: I won’t overthink it – Scottie almost breaks the model here. All of the “trends” say no to Scottie, but he’s obliterating the model. Going for 3 out of 4, has 2 top 3s in his last 4 starts but is still seen as “finding himself”. Maybe he’ll “find himself” in green on Sunday, again.
2. Collin Morikawa: I think Collin has spurned his fans enough to where he’s on an island of his own… given his recent comments, he seems almost numb to the outside noise and, now, could be ready to sit in a mindset that shines his raw talent. There is one guy who strikes the ball better than Collin and already discussed him. Top 4s at Valhalla, Kapalua, Muirfield, and here last year…
3. Xander: This may sound like a stupid request. Go watch Masters on the Range and wait for Xander. If the ball speeds with the driver at 183+, bet Xander. He has not gotten those speeds back up to the 185 range he was sitting in before his surgery… and the driving stats show it. Now we get a deflated price and lower odds on a guy we know can win. 3 top 10s in his last 4 starts here and the winner at both Royal Troon AND Valhalla, which show as corollary.
4. Justin Thomas: JT should benefit from not being forced into the Tiger pairing. He somehow lost at Valspar, all of the stats are great this year, and the putter looked very comfortable. He may become a sneaky play if the number keeps drifting.
5. Bobby MacIntyre: Bobby has been hitting the cover off the ball and comes in with 3 straight top 11s. The corollary courses don’t pop as much recently, but he has the game to contend late on Sunday.
6. Patrick Cantlay: My brother is laughing at me putting this name down. Cantlay has not popped here, mainly due to a lame duck putter. A 3rd at Pinehurst last year and only just now finding form this year.
7. Min Woo: Min Woo comes in with extreme confidence off a win in Houston. I knew this ceiling was in his arsenal, and the soft conditions at Augusta may regretfully give it a similar field to Memorial Park. As the irons came on, the driver fell off… that didn’t stop him from winning once. I do believe Min Woo has the firepower to outduel one of the guys over $10.0k if push comes to shove, but he’ll be very popular.
8. Akshay Bhatia: It’s incredible that Akshay has gone, really over 18 months, from being a liability with the putter to a top 5 putter in this field. He has not popped in a major yet but being a very handsy lefty with world-class approach ceilings is exactly what you want at Augusta. He missed the cut by a mile in San Antonio as defending champ… and I think that will keep steam down and give him time to focus in on this task.
9. Sepp Straka: The glass-o-milk has played well here and is now in the midst of his best PGA TOUR season. A winner at Deere Run, and top 5s galore at courses that have the larger elevation changes.
10. Adam Scott: This is more of a gut-check. Adam’s 182mph ball speed is up at the top of the field still and he’s almost 45! I’ve been waiting for Adam Scott to bubble up this year and begin a mid-40s renaissance. Augusta would be a great spot as the irons, ARG and putter all show promising correlation. The irons have been bad for a month – I trust the raw skill of maybe the top ball-striker of his generation.
11. Patrick Reed: Patty Reed is BACK. We so rarely see him that it’s tough to comp him, but the courses are a fit and we know his short game could lead this field. He made a run at Doral but ended up falling short… a similar trajectory to last year when he posted a T12 here.

Guys that model well:

1. Joaquin Niemann: I’ve played Niemann at Augusta for maybe 5 years now, and it doesn’t work. I might be the fool. The entire skillset has rounded into form and he has 2 wins in his last 4 LIV starts. Is Joaco a different golfer who can harness a better short game? Or simply beating up on mid fields in South Asia?
2. Sahith Theegala: Theegala is yet to pop this year, and it’s tough to say Augusta will be where it happens. He has top 8s at Kapalua, Muirfield, Albany, Riviera and Innisbrook and fits the approach molds, but the game has been so average that it feels more like a dart throw.
3. Cameron Smith: All of the course comps show Cam Smith, but that was when he was league average in driving. I believe he’s now in the bottom quartile with the boomstick and the short-game wizardry can’t overcome all that.
4. Matt Fitzpatrick: Rates out well by course comp. Been a very bad golfer.

Debutants

1. Davis Thompson: I have always been a believer in DT. He’s a Deere Run winner, was 9th last year at Pinehurst and should be able to translate a strong year into success here. The one lacking spot in his game is lag putting, but I trust he’s a gamer and can overcome that… we may be a year or two early, but better now than never.
2. Max Greyserman: Max has been bad the last month, but was solid prior and has a ‘major championship’ skillset. Hits it a mile but has no true high-end finishes art comp courses… 15 in Puerto Rico, top 26s at Deere Run, Kapalua and Pinehurst.
3. Nico Echavarria: Can’t you see your boss saying “Who’s this Echavarria fella?”. Now you know. He can putt with the best of them… Cam Smith has great success here and Nico will have to find it that way. The data is hard to track on this, but my eyes tell me his approach play has been best at courses with tiered green structures such as Augusta. Winner in Puerto Rico.
4. Thriston Lawrence: Take this name for what it’s worth. He nearly won The Open last year; winner at Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland where this is major elevation change.

My full player pool will be out on Tuesday.

This was written and I was too excited to keep it from y’all. I’m liable to change my mind on some of the guys above! As always, GL GL GL.