adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust

This week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am features the season debut of Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and the mainland PGA TOUR Signature Event series. The 80-man field is great opportunity for a number of shorter players in form to jump up on the FedEx Cup leaderboard. Players will split two rounds between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before the weekend. Our analysis this week will focus on Pebble Beach. Generally, Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach don’t show a correlation, but those in form should be able to capitalize on both seaside courses.

Pebble Beach can range anywhere from birdie-fest to over-par-grind simply based on wind. So many holes are exposed to the elements, and Pebble has the unique blend of links-style wind and American coastal target golf; the wind will determine where on that pendulum this week’s course lies. Wind forecasts can be taken with a grain of salt, but the first 3 days of the event look very light on wind, before a blustery Sunday.

Note: Our analysis this week will be exclusive to Pebble Beach, as noted above.

Plus4: Pebble Beach Golf Links course notes

• Total driving: Pebble Beach is not abhorrently long, but precision off the tee is key. This is not a course you should “come into form” at, given the precision required off the tee and on approach. For the most part, you will see players taking a hybrids and 3-woods to get to the end of layup areas.
• Premium on short wedges and long irons: The coastal weave of Pebble Beach places players more commonly in under 100 yard and over 200 yard approach ranges. Many holes are designed in a way to put players in these ranges. Pebble’s greens are the smallest on TOUR, and with the wind down, all of the premium will be on attacking these small greens from those very short, and long yardage buckets.
• Wind players: As noted, Pebble’s #1 defense is the elements. The very small greens and fairways only get smaller when the wind blows. Corollary courses show a distinct aggregation on Sun Belt, wind-prone courses like TPC SA, Houston GC and TPC Southwind, and many Scottish courses also pop are corollary spots. Given the wind projects to be relatively down this week, it will be more difficult to isolate those that fit Pebble (like Tom Hoge) vs. those that simply thrive in windy conditions (like Sam Stevens)
• West coast correlation: (Repeated from last week) One of the most notable things you will see is a bunch of missed putts inside 15 feet. Those that have 1) putted well at Torrey, in Tahoe or in Mexico or 2) grew up on west coast greens will have the advantage. This stat only eccentuates the need to succeed in total driving and strokes-gained approach to have 15-20 feet for birdie instead of grinding of highly variable greenside lies, bunkers and 5-footers.

Plus4: Pebble Beach Golf Links corollary course deep-dive

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. TPC Southwind

COR score: 11

Memphis, Tennessee and Pebble Beach, California = very little in common. What TPC Southwind does demand is accuracy OTT and the need to get hot from 175+ to score well. The leaderboards have lined up… notably Daniel Berger has won at both courses.

2. Plantation Course at Kapalua

COR score: 9

Both Kapalua and Pebble’s only defense is the wind. The approach ranges of Pebble and the Plantation Course put added emphasis on both under 100 and over 200 in relation to other TOUR courses.

3. TPC San Antonio

COR score: 7

Wind and hard-to-find greens. That’s what binds TPC SA and Pebble together… TPC SA has large greens by size, but GIR% is not astounding and holding the steep plateaus with high winds is what both are about.

4. Tahoe Mountain Club

COR score: 5

Little-known Tahoe is narrow and rewards accuracy off-the-tee. While inland, the players that succeed at both courses love west coast greens.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Royal St. George’s, Royal Troon, Royal County Down and Royal Liverpool all correlate
2. Port Royal GC
3. Pete Dye Stadium Course
4. Doha and Royal Greens
5. Marco Simone

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Note: Change in process, I am going to be much more stringent on who fits here. Many players I like on Sunday do not fit my eye on Wednesday, and I don’t want to subject you to plays I don’t like come tee-off.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Collin Morikawa: If the wind is down like it was in Kapalua, Collin will get the chance to add on to a great early-season finish. Accurate player, in form, from California who finished 14th last year in his first start at Pebble.
2. Robert MacIntyre: Bobby will want the wind to blow. He excels in the wind and from over 200 yards – let’s hope birdies are made early and Bobby grinds late on Sunday. 7th last year in Memphis, a winner at Marco Simone, and extremely successful at Scottish wind-laden golf courses.
3. Adam Scott: Of the 13 corollary courses that Adam Scott has played, he has a top 35 at 90% of them, and a top 5 at 30% of them. He fits the old-man game to win.
4. Sepp Straka: Unbeknownst to Sepp, this is the course that Sepp thrives. Wind-laden with narrow landing areas that emphasize good approach play. The Sepp season should continue.
5. Mac McNealy: You’ll hear this: Mav grew up on the course. He loves west coast greens, knows the tricks here, fits the under 100 + over 200 approach fit, and even threw in a 12th and 8th at his last trips to Memphis and Kapalua, respectively.
6. Will Zalatoris: Zal loves a 200+ yard approach with wind. That is where he makes his money. He has a runner-up here and a win in Memphis. Note that Willy WD’d last week… it’s not known of this was back-related or flu-related, but keep an active eye on Will before tee off.
7. Akshay Bhatia: Akshay WD’d early last week after playing in Dubai the week prior. A winner at Tahoe and in San Antonio and like the rest of the names above, has had success in Kapalua and Memphis.

Bets and DraftKings DFS Player Pool will be posted in full on Tuesday.