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Torrey Pines plays host to the Farmers Insurance Open starting this Wednesday. The short week will have this event start quickly in your mind, with the event ending in primetime on Saturday night. Players will play one round at the North Course and South Course prior to the Thursday afternoon cut. The North Course is markedly easier that the South as its 500 yards shorter and naturally a municipal course stretched to host simply this event.

Torrey is a big mental flip from the Kapalua and PGA West mentality. I tend to expect a new crop of players to bubble up from Torrey through TPC Scottsdale in 3 weeks. The difficult greens and rough, minimal scoring, cold weather, and driver-heavy approach is much different that than the laissez-faire mindset that some players fall into through the first couple weeks.

Note: Our analysis this week will be exclusive to the South Course, given its the course with Shotlink data. Generally, the North and South Course are corollary, just with the North playing much easier. If you favorite player doesn’t score on the North, I’d be worried.

Plus4: Torrey Pines (South Course) course notes

• Total driving: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) plays around 7,700 yards. To get to scoring zones consistently, you need to be able to use driver as a weapon. You don’t need to be a bomber, but gaining fairways will be critical to those below TOUR average in driving. Unlike most TOUR courses, driver is almost required at most holes.
• Tough rough: Bryson and Spieth have both famously injured themselves in the long grass off these fairways. The dry winter may make it easier for this go around, but I still suspect gamey lies. Holding these greens without good angles of attack will be difficult and favors the stronger players who can gauge it out.
• West coast correlation: One of the most notable things you will see is a bunch of missed putts inside 10 feet. Torrey is the most difficult course to putt inside 15 feet on TOUR due to bumpy poa annua greens that get worse as the days goes on. Those that have 1) putted well here, at Pebble or in Mexico or 2) grew up on west coast greens will have the advantage. This stat only eccentuates the need to succeed in total driving and strokes-gained approach to have 15-20 feet for birdie instead of grinding of highly variable greenside lies, bunkers and 5-footers. The dry season may make this even worse – as softer, wet greens will hold form in the mornings but “curd” up in the afternoon and evening.

Plus4: Torrey Pines (South Course) corollary course deep-dive

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Silverado Resort

COR score: 15

Little-known Silverado and Torrey Pines reside in opposite ends of California, but west coast guys love both tracks. Lots of drivers, similar greenscapes, and among the most narrow fairways are what make these tracks play similar.

2. Waialae

COR score: 8

Similar to sad a few weeks back, driving the ball well is key to success at both course. Waialae has a different green type, but the sticky greenside rough has similarities.

3. Innisbrook

COR score: 7

Similar story once again: total driving and strokes-gained approach. Innisbrook feels like a soulless course in relation to other TOUR venues… but that may be why it correlates so well. You don’t need a bunch of imagination at either Torrey or Innisbrook. Hit it long, straight and near a green – otherwise, you’re mostly toast.

4. TPC Scottsdale

COR score: 7

When I think of Scottsdale, I think of the tight greenside lies typical of a Pete Dye course. But more than most Dye track, Scottsdale demands great driving and rewards length in scoring well. It’s a ball-strikers course, just like Torrey.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Chapultepec
2. Trump National Doral – Blue Monster
4. Pebble Beach
5. Vidanta Vallarta
6. Tahoe Mountain Club
7. Albany
8. Valhalla

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the Farmers Open

Based on Plus4’s analysis, the below players will see a favorable bump at Torrey Pines.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Aberg: Ludwig was on the leaderboard last year until the putter failed him. This is the exact course that Ludwig makes look easier than most; if Ludwig plays at Torrey ten times in his career, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win one. 6th in Albany a few months back, 2nd at Pebble last year, and a 9th here a year ago.
2. Finau: This one will probably hurt me. Tony fits this place great every year – his best finish was a miracle backdoor top 10 when he was on the opposite side of the course as the true competitors. The projected approach numbers at Torrey based on approach range are very high. A winner in Mexico, back-to-back top 10s here the last 2 goes without real chances to win.
3. Theegala: A winner at Silverado, a top 5 here, immaculate approach stats. We will be back on Theegala following a trouble Sony Open. His whole city was in the midst of burn and TGL obligations loomed – let’s hope the stars align.
4. McNealy: I truthfully don’t believe McNealy has the upside to win, but he’s a perfect top 10 play. A NorCal kid who’s has success at nearlly all California tracks and is just now playing the best golf of his career post-injury.
5. EDIT: BHATIA HAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE EVENT. Bhatia: Akshay is not-yet 23 and has top 5s in Mexico and Albany, a win in Tahoe, a top 10 at Silverado. Plus, a top 20 here. Akshay, to me, fits the high ball-striking mold of past winners and runners-up such as Zalatoris, List, Jason Day, Rose, etc. The ARG and Putting give me trepidation, alongside a global travel schedule recently.
6. Fishburn: Top 3s in Tahoe and at Silverado, a 6th at Waialae very recently. A western native who can use driver as a weapon. That’s all I need for the FBURN.
7. Detry: Thomas Detry has played very well here and at likewise Euro courses. These greens and the rough make most TOUR players lose their minds (J.T. Poston to name one)… but Detry seems to take issue with every course, so this brainspace isn’t new for him!
8. Sam Stevens: For whatever reason, I think Sam Stevens has “it”. The ball-striking profile, ARG, and putting all match up… let’s hope he can keep it in the fairway so he’s not gauging.
9. Jesper Svennson: You’re probably asking, who?! 28-year-old rookie from Sweden who won in Singapore last year at Laguna National. I won’t act like I scoured the Laguna CC scorecard, but those successful players there are the bombers and ball-strikers very similar to Torrey Pines. Jesper is bomber, putter and if he tends to like these coastal greens, it could be a Swedish sweep. A very recent top 10 at Waialae, held his own at Valhalla.
10. Brian Campbell: Campbell was firing at the Sony before withdrawing with an illness. He’s not like the guys above as he’s much shorter, but he’s accurate OTT and has played well in California. I’m not liable for anything you do with this information given it’s Brian freakin’ Campbell.

EDIT: Additional players in my “players to watch” include Taylor Moore and S.H. Kim.

Bets and DraftKings DFS Player Pool will be posted in full on Monday evening.