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Fresh of a scorching weekend in Kapalua, the TOUR heads to Hilo for the Sony Open at Waialae CC. Waialae will be our first chance to see a number of TOUR rookies and the pros who failed to qualify for the PGA TOUR’s elevated events, leaving us a mixed bag of recent form from the Fall swing, hot players coming off The Sentry, and a group of players with little to no form to predict off of.

This week’s field is thin on star power but boasts a number of players from in the OWGR top 50, led by the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Robert MacIntyre, Keegan Bradley and Sahith Theegala.

Course notes

• A focus on Par 4 scoring: A par 70 that plays on the easier side of TOUR courses, scoring on the only two Par 5s on the course is critical to success. The larger number of Par 4s requires excellence from 125-175 yards… of which over two-thirds of approaches will come from.
• Ain’t no Kapalua: The Plantation Course at Kapalua took a lot of flake from the keyboard all-stars on X over the weekend. Waialae may be easier, but it is no Kapalua. Waialae is a parkland-type course that sits oceanside with none of the elevation change Kapalua provided. Our model gives Kapalua a COR score of zero with no correlation to performance at Waialae.
• Scrambles: The main defense of Waialae is a Par 4 scoring rate that sits right at TOUR average. I project some clammy hands at the top of the leaderboard Sunday that forces our winner to be strong around-the-green.

Plus4 analysis: Waialae Country Club corollary courses

Note: our COR scores this week are much lower what you will see at other PGA TOUR events. The numbers are telling us that Waialae is a difficult course to predict. The short nature of Waialae with an added focus on around-the-green and putting (both the most variable strokes-gained categories) leads to an element of randomness. I will be limiting my betting card and going lighter on DFS as a result.

1. PGA National (The Champion)

COR score: 8

PGA National provides a test with much more water and difficulty. The correlation here can be attributed to the strong ARG play and similar approach ranges for our TOUR pros. If the winds pick up in Hawaii, the grinders who play well in Palm Beach Gardens should be strong at Waialae. Russell Henley, Chris Kirk (a PGA National winner), and Sepp Straka (a PGA National winner) have had success at both tracks.

2. Harbour Town Golf Links

COR score: 8

Both Harbour Town and Waialae play level at seaside and put almost zero emphasis on driving distance and require short-game prowess to find consistent success. Shorter hitters such as Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar that can lean on their mid-irons have played well at both courses, while longer hitters who have had success at both courses (such as Stewie Cink and Cam Davis) must rely on their strong short games.

3. Torrey Pines

COR score: 7

Another flat (and monotonous) track at seaside, Torrey Pines and Waialae share certain characteristics that may go unseen: a focus on mid-irons and around-the-green tendencies with tucked and guarded pins. Torrey puts a massive emphasis on driving distance, but those that can chip and putt on Torrey’s bumpy poa annua should fare well at Waialae.

A mixed bag of scrappers have had relative success at both: Matti Pavon, Ryan Palmer, Henrik Norlander, Marc Leishman and Bubba Watson have had relative success at both tracks.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. TPC San Antonio (COR score: 7)
2. TPC Scottsdale (5)
3. TPC Kuala Lampur (5)
4. Colonial CC (5)

Plus4 analysis: Player fits for the Sony Open

Based on Plus4’s analysis, the below players will see a favorable bump in their play at Waialae.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Sahith Theegala: Sahith is a tough player to cap, but he has top 4 finishes at Harbour Town, Torrey Pines, and TPC Scottsdale in his young career. His putter should run hot on these greens while being able to lean on the 125-175 approach ranges. Sahith will have my money.
2. Kurt Kitayama: Kurt will not be popular given a poor course history at Waialae, but with top 5s in similar fields at PGA National and at TPC Sawgrass and a rapidly improving approach game, Kitayama has winning potential. It will come down to a hot putter.
3. Mav McNealy: Mav got his first win this Fall. A lover of short courses like Colonial and Harbour Town and a propensity to play well at driver-key courses like Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale brings a perfect mix for Mav here. Poor projected approach stats will keep him behind Sahith and Kitayama in my rankings, but we know that Mav can lean on a hot short-game.
4. Andrew Novak: Waialae’s greensides fit Novak perfectly. He has top 10s at PGA National, TPC San Antonio and TPC Scottsdale, as well as a 12th place finish here in 2023.
5. Mac Meissner: Mac was a rising player as a TOUR rookie last year. He played well in Texas at Colonial and TPC San Antonio; I expect those performances to transfer to Waialae.
6. Samuel Stevens: Similar to Meissner, Stevens has strong finishes in Texas; adding to that, he flashed early here last year before finishing 24th and boasts a 13th finish at Torrey Pines. Stevens has a coveted blend of driving and short-game potential that should work at Waialae.
7. Honorable mentions: Rico Hoey, Carson Young

My DraftKings DFS Player Pool will be posted in full on Tuesday evening.