2025 PGA TOUR: The Sentry Preview and Player Insights

The 2025 PGA TOUR season kicks off in Hawaii! The Sentry returns to the Plantation Course at Kapalua for a season-opening birdie-fest. Kapalua is a favorite of fans and players alike and annually delivers the greenest, most lush viewing experience to PGAT fans stuck in frozen tundras.

Of note, Scottie Scheffler was a late withdraw from The Sentry to do an incident with broken glass on Christmas night that will keep him out for nearly a month. The man hand’s alone should be insured for $50M, can somebody get this man a chef? How about Uncle Ricky cut the Christmas ham?! Scottie’s WD is a key opportunity for a crop of PGA TOUR players to get an elevated event win under their belt while the world #1 is on the mend.

Course notes

Wedge fest: While generous fairways at Kapalua play to the grip-it-and-rip-it, The Sentry will be won with wedges and putters.
Go low: A welcoming handshake to the best players in the world, Kapalua is perennially among the easiest courses on Tour. With this, you will need to rely on a hot putter to reach the top of the board come Sunday.
Short course all-stars: Kapalua is a par 73 that plays to long scorecard, but corollary courses have a common theme: short tracks that demand short game excellence.

Corollary courses for the Plantation Course at Kapalua

1. TPC Deere Run

COR score: 14

Both Kapalua and Deere Run are characterized by large fairways with undulation that demand precision from 50 – 125 yards on uneven lies. Like The Sentry, Deere Run’s John Deere Classic plays among the easiest events on TOUR, with a high GIR % and easy off-the-tee metrics that put the scoring onus on a hot putter.

Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, Matt Jones, and Vaughn Taylor are among those who’ve played well at both Deere Run and Kapalua

2. Sedgefield Country Club

COR score: 13

Also among the easier courses on TOUR, Sedgefield and Kapalua share an equal demand on putting and, more importantly, have similar putting surface and greenside characteristics. While undulation is not as much of a factor at Sedgefield, approach shots on both courses rate out very easy for the likes of TOUR pros.

Johnson Wagner, Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im and Kevin Kisner have had relative success at both Kapalua and Sedgefield.

3. PGA National (The Champion)

COR score: 10

Favoring golfers with a love of Bermuda grass, PGA National provides a much more difficult test for PGA TOUR pros, but nonetheless shares many greenside characteristics with Kapalua. If the winds pick up in Hawaii, the grinders who play well in Palm Beach Gardens could find themselves on top at The Sentry.

Stuart Abbleby, Chris Kirk, Sepp Straka, and Matt Jones have had success at both tracks.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Nine Bridges (Fit multiplier: 15)
2. TPC Craig Ranch (10)
3. Pebble Beach Golf Links (7)
4. Tahoe Mt. Club (9)
5. TPC Boston (7)
6. TPC San Antonio (7)
7. Detroit (6)

Player fits for The Sentry

Based on Plus4’s approach, the below players will see a favorable bump in their play at the Plantation Course.

Ranked by projected skill at Kapalua

Collin Morikawa: Collin’s number are buoyed by great performances at Kapalua and a slew of good performances at less-known corollary tracks such as Montreux G&CC, Royal St. George’s and Hamilton G&CC, as well as top finishes at Detroit and TPC Deere Run.
Sungjae Im: Im is a former winner at PGA National and a runner-up at Sedgefield who can get hot with short wedgers and the flat stick. A top finisher at The Sentry last year, Sungjae loves these bermuda greens.
Byeong Hun An: Benny An plays well across a bunch of corollary courses, notably Sedgefield, Nine Bridges, TPC Craig Ranch and PGA National.
Taylor Pendrith: A winner at TPC Craig Ranch, runner-up in Detroit and good finishes at Pebble Beach and Tahoe Mt. Club bring us to Pendrith. A long-hitter, Pendrith defies most models as he plays his best at shorter tracks that would seemingly take driver out of his hands.
Eric Cole: Cole loves bermuda greens and loves to lean on his wedges. The late bloomer has had great finishes at Detroit, PGA National, TPC Deere Run.
Chris Kirk: The defending champion has played well on bermuda greens around his career, with a win at PGA National.
Sepp Straka: The glass-o-milk has wins at TPC Deere Run and PGA National and top-30 finishes at 12 of 14 applicable corollary courses.
Matthieu Pavon: A phenom at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, a top Europeon corollary course, Pavon struggled down the stretch of 2024. If the wedges get hot, I will not be shocked by a surprise top 10 finish.

Good luck to all! My DraftKings DFS Player Pool will be posted in full on Tuesday evening.

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