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OFF TO FLORIDA. THE EASTERN SWING. Let’s roll!
Plus4 recap
Jacob Bridgeman rockets onto the scene with an impressive maiden win at Riviera, holding off Rory, Adam Scott and Kurt Kitayama. A beautiful week at Riviera, one of easily the most beautiful courses to see on TV.
This week’s write-up will be short and sweet: this field stinks. It’s the PGA TOUR, but it’s barely a PGA TOUR caliber field. Calling this an equal win to other “first-time winners” is laughable. Jacob Bridgeman winning at Riviera and Jesper Svensson holding off the journeyman are not the same.
Also, our back-end processes are changing for the better with new scientific breakthroughs, necessitating some extra time spent in the build mode and a few changes in graphics… plus a few great items in production that maximize on use of #Microsoft #Fabric (buy the dip!).
Plus4: PGA National course notes
- Water, everywhere: PGA National has, easily, the most holes of any course that can be completely disrupted by water. It’s hard to cap this well, but I personally look for guys with stronger tee-to-green games. It’s not the longest course, but most of my field this week is a plus with the driver – there are plodding courses, but I see this as one that’s best attacked from short angles created with the big stick. Lowry and Straka have had success here and are not traditional plodders, but rather guys who can string accuracy and league-average distance together.
- Bad shot avoidance: DataGolf has a nice feature around great shots and poor shots, defined by the total numbers of shots that either gain or lose 1 stroke against the field. Generally, this is a test of variance… most courses, we want high variance as it leads to DFS scoring and upside. Here, that variance can lead to water balls and turning in an 80. Guys like Russell Henley are very low variance, while a guy like Cam Young is the highest of variance.
- Bermuda: Do not forget that the change in coasts comes with a change in greens. While out West, a number of guys were featured here week-over-week. Consider this a mini-reset as the Floridians get to shine.
Plus4: PGA National corollary courses
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
Our correlation process has improved. The below graphic will be explain in a write-up next week.
Plus4 Picks: Cognizant Classic
Favorite Play:
J. Svensson – Elite ball-striker, just needing to put it all together with the putter. An East Coast flip can hopefully do us wonder.
R. Gerard – Rinse. Repeat.
Star Anchor:
R. Hojgaard – The power to play this course from different areas, the comfort on Bermuda, and the budding of a quality long-term professional. This could be a signature win for either Hojgaard.
R. Neergaard-Petersen – Elite ball-striker who floundered early in the year, but has all the tools to win.
Gut Check:
J. Parry – Not long, but deadly accurate and somebody whose putter should be super hot around these parts.
J. Keefer – Ball-striker who fits the above molds.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
S. Yellamaraju – A general grinder, undervalued here. Sneaky long, sneaky smart.
Plus4 Bets: Cognizant Classic
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Cognizant Classic
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Lowry, Shane
Gerard, Ryan
Hojgaard, Rasmus
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus
Meissner, Mac
Keefer, Johnny
Parry, John
Roy, Kevin
Ford, David
Svensson, Jesper
Small bites
Berger, Daniel
Thompson, Davis
Zalatoris, Will
Smalley, Alex
Brown, Dan
Ryder, Sam
Sub-7s
Lipsky, David
Wu, Dylan
Bauchou, Zach
Yellamaraju, Sudarshan
Hirata, Kensei
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
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