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Plus4 recap
Collin Morikawa plays a super sharp weekend to claim his first win on the PGA TOUR in multiple seasons, and put him on the hype ship for now through Augusta National.
Pebble proved a great Sunday, with enough wind to really punish those who didn’t have it (Akshay), and to let shine the greatest ball-strikers in the world as they shot up the board.
Akshay was our shining star for the first 3 days, but could not finish the job come Sunday, floundering from the front 9 through the end of the round.
ACROSS THE POND:
Anthony Kim is an infamous character in golf history because of the burst of light he brought at a time when the PGA TOUR needed a new young, star to pair across Tiger. AK was tabbed to be that next star… before it went sideways. If you don’t know the AK story, I implore you to have a read: Anthony Kim’s mystique was built on memories.
As Anthony Kim won, the nerd in me looked forward on the schedule, to an event next week in South Africa that lines up to be one of the more competitive non-PGA fields of the season.
That would be the Investec South African Open Championship, whose field should be released later this week.
The long-standing SA Open will represent the final open seat for the Masters for those not on the PGA TOUR, and one that many LIV players will be vying for. An invite to Augusta can alter the trajectory of many young players, and I’m hoping that we get a great field and a great young winner who can fill out the back of the most limited field in Major golf.
We will see the great young EUROs in Schaper, Ayora and Hillier, but will we see the likes of a Rickie Fowler? A Taylor Pendrith? A Jake Knapp? All guys outside the top 50 who could forego a PGAT start in an attempt to qualify.
And on LIV, I’d expect many players not in the Masters field but in solid form to head to SA. Names potentially like Niemann and Puig and certainly like McKibbin, Smylie, Munoz, Ancer and the like.
For Anthony Kim, I’d expect him to enter that field and attempt to make a run towards Augusta…. and if he pulled it off, Anthony Kim would immediately become one of the happier invites in Masters history and worthy of a quality viewing window come the Masters. Let him in! Put him with TIGER!
Plus4: The Riviera Country Club course notes
Riviera is a difficult comp. It doesn’t statistically showcase a premium on distance, accuracy or approach play, but always produces good leaderboards and winner. I truly believe the west coast swing does a great job culminating in this course.
- Outrageously difficult approach: Alongside Augusta National, Riviera commonly plays right at the top of the ranking in terms of approach-play difficulty. These speeds have been tuned up and the legacy golf course has become even harder around the greens. Much like Augusta, it almost more important to be ensuring you miss in the right spot than hit the perfect shot.
- Long approach bins: Much of what makes the approach play so difficult is some very long approach bins, with nearly half of approach shots coming from between 150 and 200 yards. This is 30% higher than the typical PGA TOUR course.
Plus4: The Riviera Country Club corollary courses
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
- TPC SCOTTSDALE (STADIUM COURSE)
- AUGUSTA NATIONAL
- MUIRFIELD VILLAGE
- TORREY PINES (SOUTH COURSE)
- WAIALAE
- SILVERADO RESORT (NORTH COURSE)
- INNISBROOK RESORT (COPPERHEAD COURSE)
- TPC DEERE RUN
- TPC CRAIG RANCH
- OLYMPIA FIELDS (NORTH COURSE)
- LIBERTY NATIONAL
- CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC
- TPC KUALA LUMPUR
- TRUMP NATIONAL DORAL (2014 ONWARDS)
Plus4 Picks: Genesis Invitational
Struggling with a data feed this week, so this will be condensed.
Favorite Play:
Knapp, Jake – Knapp has been playing lights out to begin the season, and Riviera poses as a spot to be a great cap to that early season play.
English, Harris – By looking at Harris English and Jake Knapp, the comps don’t pop out. They both have great long-iron play, but Harris can bring out an elite short-game every few months. This is the do-it-all guy that should find success here, regardless of conditions or set-up.
Star Anchor:
Morikawa, Collin – Comfortable on west coast greens and somebody that if the irons can stay as hot as they were last weekend, should be able to strike Riviera to death.
Gotterup, Chris – We will ride the hot hand with Gotterup. Both Scottsdale and Waialae pose as corollary courses, and Gotterup already has picked up 2 wins at those sites this year.
Gut Check:
Kitayama, Kurt
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Theegala, Sahith
Plus4 Bets: Genesis Invitational
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Genesis Invitational
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Scheffler, Scottie
Matsuyama, Hideki
Morikawa, Collin
Gotterup, Chris
Knapp, Jake
English, Harris
Fowler, Rickie
Lowry, Shane
McNealy, Maverick
Kitayama, Kurt
Gerard, Ryan
Theegala, Sahith
Small bites
Schauffele, Xander
Fitzpatrick, Matt
MacIntyre, Robert
Spieth, Jordan
Bridgeman, Jacob
Fleetwood, Tommy
Sub-7s
Hisatsune, Ryo
Stevens, Sam
Valimaki, Sami
Hoey, Rico
McCarty, Matt
As always, GL GL GL.
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