adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust
On to Pebble Beach. I’ll keep this short and sweet.
Pebble can be simple. Hit fairways. Be elite from <100 and 200+. Miss in the right spots. If the wind stays down, it’s scoring. If it kicks up, it’s a more disciplined course.
This week, we build around total driving and approach control.
A note on the Indiana Football Hoosiers
From your author The cause of our recent posting delays? Your 16-0 Indiana Football Hoosiers. You can read more polished people speak post their soliloquies on the Hoosiers, but I wanted to leave a note for what it meant to me… Indiana Football meant…
Keep reading
Plus4 recap
TPC Scottsdale don’t miss! It’s one of the few TOUR stops where the course, the crowd, and the volatility all sync up. Drivable 17. Stadium 16. Leaders forced to hit shots with noise in their ears and water lurking.
Sunday was exactly that.
The board compressed early, birdies flew, and then everything tightened coming home. For 5 minutes, I believed Thorbjornsen was a baby star growing right in front of us…
10 minutes after that, I thought Hideki was going to steal a preposterous win on a weekend he legitimately could not drive the golf ball…
and then Chris Gotterup catapulted like the showman he is to the top of the board and put the pressure on Hideki that finally folded him.
Win number 2 in 4 weeks. Win number 3 in 11 starts. A trajectory that is very impressive and one that will put Gotterup in a class of young players that SO. MANY. GUYS. have applied for and were, reluctantly, proven to be admitted too early.
He rivals Hovland. He rivals Aberg.
He is proving early to be somebody who can win. He is what we believed Niemann would be at 26. Cam Young at 28 (admittedly, Cam came out older).
He bests any of the U25s. He is what believers of Puig, The Hojguys, Neal Shipley and Luke Clanton aspire to. I will not curse Tom McKibbin and Angel Ayora.
He is the top 26 & under player in the world at this moment.
Plus4: Pebble Beach Golf Links notes
Pebble Beach can range anywhere from birdie-fest to over-par-grind simply based on wind. So many holes are exposed to the elements, and Pebble has the unique blend of links-style wind and American coastal target golf; the wind will determine where on that pendulum this week’s course lies.
Note: Our analysis this week will be exclusive to Pebble Beach.
- Total driving: Pebble Beach is not abhorrently long, but precision off the tee is key. This is not a course you should “come into form” at, given the precision required off the tee and on approach. For the most part, you will see players taking a hybrids and 3-woods to get to the end of layup areas.
- Premium on short wedges and long irons: The coastal weave of Pebble Beach places players more commonly in under 100 yard and over 200 yard approach ranges. Many holes are designed in a way to put players in these ranges. Pebble’s greens are the smallest on TOUR, and if the wind is down, all of the premium will be on attacking these small greens from those very short, and long yardage buckets.
- Wind players: As noted, Pebble’s #1 defense is the elements. The very small greens and fairways only get smaller when the wind blows. Corollary courses show a distinct aggregation on Sun Belt, wind-prone courses like TPC SA, Houston GC and TPC Southwind, and many Scottish courses also pop are corollary spots. Given the wind projects to be relatively down this week, it will be more difficult to isolate those that fit Pebble (like Tom Hoge) vs. those that simply thrive in windy conditions (like Sam Stevens)
- West coast correlation: One of the most notable things you will see is a bunch of missed putts inside 15 feet. Those that have 1) putted well at Torrey, in Tahoe or in Mexico or 2) grew up on west coast greens will have the advantage. This stat only accentuates the need to succeed in total driving and strokes-gained approach to have 15-20 feet for birdie instead of grinding greenside, in bunkers and with 5-footers.
Plus4: Pebble Beach Golf Links corollary courses
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
- TPC SOUTHWIND – Memphis, Tennessee and Pebble Beach, California = very little in common. What TPC Southwind does demand is accuracy OTT and the need to get hot from 175+ to score well. The leaderboards have lined up… notably Daniel Berger has won at both courses
- TORREY PINES (SOUTH COURSE) – Greens, time of year, oceanside air density. Many of things.
- PLANTATION COURSE AT KAPALUA – Both Kapalua and Pebble’s only defense is the wind. The approach ranges of Pebble and the Plantation Course put added emphasis on both under 100 and over 200 in relation to other TOUR courses.
- TPC SAN ANTONIO (OAKS COURSE) – Wind and hard-to-find greens. That’s what binds TPC SA and Pebble together… TPC SA has large greens by size, but GIR% is not astounding and holding the steep plateaus with high winds is what both are about.
- BETHPAGE BLACK
- TAHOE MOUNTAIN (OLD GREENWOOD) – Little-known Tahoe is narrow and rewards accuracy off-the-tee. While inland, the players that succeed at both courses love west coast greens.
- ROYAL TROON
- ROYAL LIVERPOOL
- ROYAL ST. GEORGE’S
- OCEAN COURSE AT KIAWAH ISLAND
- PORT ROYAL GOLF COURSE
- MONTREUX GOLF &
- WHISTLING STRAITS
- GOLF DE SAINT-NOM-LA-BRETÈCHE
- CRANS-SUR-SIERRE
- WENTWORTH
Plus4 Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach
Favorite Play:
Gerard, Ryan ($7.5k) – Profiles exactly where Pebble overlaps with a 2nd at TPC SA and a win in Tahoe. Fairways first and then elite mid/long iron play. On a course that punishes loose tee balls, the total ball-striking abilities will play. I am worried that we will run into a cold putter, but if he simply shows what he has over the last month, Gerard can easily outscore the field here. This is a rising star and the price, after this week, will be his peak.
Young, Cameron ($8.1k) – Young was so hot to end 2026, and a 22nd at Torrey and 41st in Phoenix has Cameron well down the board. Most will think that Cam does not fit this course, but we just saw Rory overpower it to a win last year. 5th in Memphis last season late in the year, and a player who may actually play shorter courses better than long ones, despite his power.
Star Anchor:
Scheffler, Scottie ($14k) – Not much need said here. I like the deflation of Scottie’s price, coupled with dropping many players down the board from the 9,000s to the 8,000s. Greats win at Pebble. Scottie will win at Pebble… why not this Sunday?
McNealy, Maverick ($8.8k) – You’ll hear this: Mav grew up on the course. He loves west coast greens, knows the tricks here, fits the under 100 + over 200 approach fit, and even threw in a 12th and 8th at his last trips to Memphis and Kapalua, respectively.
Gut Check:
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($8.7k) – I am rarely on Fitz, but Pebble just feels like the ‘small green’ dartthrowing that could bring the best out of Matty. Fitz has been very good on historical, ball-placement tracks – think majors, Olympia Fields, Jack’s Place, Harbour Town, and one Crans-Sur-Sierre in the beautiful swiss alps. Fitz found some form last week and can carry that to Northern California.
Bhatia, Akshay ($7.3k) – Bhatia’s trajectory control and scoring ability from the right yardages give him real upside here. If he keeps it in play, his iron ceiling absolutely plays in this field. 6th in Memphis, a winner at TPC SA, a winner in Tahoe, plays well out West, plays well on the coast, and… (ducks)… was a round 3 leader at Kapalua as a 22-year-old.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Hoey, Rico ($6.7k) – Rico was an all-world ball-striker closing 2025. The start of 2026 was then dreadful, until this last weekend when we saw that flash. Hoey’s iron play can spike to a level that is beaten by only Scottie. You need 4 days of fairways and 15-footers.
Valimaki, Sami ($6.4k) – Coastal course pedigree, comfort on exposed setups, and a profile that doesn’t rely on overpowering the golf course.
One & Done: Cameron Young
Plus4 Bets: AT&T Pebble Beach
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: AT&T Pebble Beach
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Scheffler, Scottie ($14k)
Schauffele, Xander ($9.1k)
McNealy, Maverick ($8.8k)
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($8.7k)
Young, Cameron ($8.1k)
Gerard, Ryan ($7.5k)
Bhatia, Akshay ($7.3k)
Hoey, Rico ($6.7k)
Valimaki, Sami ($6.4k)
Small bites
MacIntyre, Robert ($8.2k)
Knapp, Jake ($7.9k)
Day, Jason ($8.5k)
Morikawa, Collin ($7.8k)
Spaun, J.J. ($7.8k)
Lowry, Shane ($7.9k)
Noren, Alex ($7.1k)
Pendrith, Taylor ($7.4k)
Sub-7s
McCarty, Matt ($6.9k)
Kim, Michael ($6.6k)
McGreevy, Max ($6.5k)
Cauley, Bud ($6.3k)
Glover, Lucas ($6.3k)
As always, GL GL GL.
All content on this website is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Betting involves risk, and you may lose money.
Leave a comment