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The People’s Open. A tournament with little need for introduction. Cold, light beer will be flowing throughout TPC Scottsdale while the rest of the country thaws out en route to their Super Bowl Sunday viewing plans.
Our goal? A winner around 4pm CST on Sunday. A celebratory lager of my own. Buffalo chicken dip. Muting Bad Bunny at halftime. More buffalo chicken dip. Talk about how good “Man I Need” is. And a quality Super Bowl finish.
In the WM Phoenix Open, we get an itty bitty purse in a very high-quality field on a fantastic golf course. This is ultimately one of the best golf tournaments of the year, every year. The surrounding antics are great, but the golf course is even better.
We get Scottie off a win, Xander off a WD, the rise of a few players hot in the early season, and the return of some cream that maybe didn’t bring their best showing in their opening event.
This week is a week where everybody has a lean for a guy. You can talk yourself into early form (Si Woo), can talk yourself into guys mispriced against their hyped-up baseline (Hovland), can look at successful approach / around-the-green guys who fit the course (like Hideki), or talk yourself into young bombers who may have the pop to overpower this course (Cam Young).
With all that, we do get the bull on a track where he’s had huge success, and had his first statement victory: World #1 Scottie Scheffler at a consensus +240 odds.
A note on the Indiana Football Hoosiers
From your author The cause of our recent posting delays? Your 16-0 Indiana Football Hoosiers. You can read more polished people speak post their soliloquies on the Hoosiers, but I wanted to leave a note for what it meant to me… Indiana Football meant…
Keep reading
Plus4 recap
Torrey Pines was beautiful. Xander, Jesper and Marco were not.
Xander destroyed the majority of my best lineups, but Maverick and Jake Knapp played high-quality golf without getting all the way over the hump.
Some words on Justin Rose (as seen on X)…
There’s a world that exists in which Justin Rose is considered the greatest ‘almost got there’ player in the history of golf. Only the events of one day separate our world today from that gutting, alternative reality. This is the final day of the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion.
This year, Justin Rose will rise into the top 10 of DataGolf’s all-time ‘DG Points’ list (since 1983), surpassing Fred Couples and climbing towards Sergio Garcia.
Both a child phenom who burst onto the scene as a 17 year old at the 1998 Open and a steady old-hand who has had success into now his late 40s, Justin Rose was nearly eluded the one major that serves as a lynchpin in his career.
Phil Mickelson entered Sunday at Merion 2 ahead, yet to win The Open, but seeking a U.S. Open win in a tournament where he already had accumulated 5 runner-ups. Phil, famously, floundered on Sunday, falling 2-behind Rose on the back 9 and unable to mount a comeback.
The world where those final positions are flipped is a world where Phil is a career grand slam champion, and erases the only stain in Phil’s golfing ledger (shenanigans aside)
The darker side of that world would be the majorless career of Justin Rose.
A world #1, 20+ time worldwide winner, both a FedEx Cup and Race to Dubai champion. A Gold medalist. A 7-time Ryder Cupper, who with Lee Westwood as the greatest Brits since Faldo, also ends majorless.
A perennial professional in the world of golf, but somebody who never got the one, required major title: The bridesmaid.
- A runner-up to Spieth’s maiden victory at Augusta in 2015
- A playoff loss to Sergio Garcia at August in 2017. Just imagine the increase in tension, both players under new worlds of pressure as two future Ryder Cup captains in their late 30s chasing their elusive, first major.
- And now infamously, a 2025 playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at Augusta where Rosey almost played the creeper, chasing down one of Golf’s Chosen One in his golden moment.
All instances where Rose was just supporting cast, elevating the drama of the defining professional moments of Jordan Speith, Sergio Garcia, AND Rory McIlroy. 3 Hall of Famers, with one common enemy chasing them.
Throw in..
- Runner-ups at both the 2018 (Molinari) and 2024 (Xander) Opens
- and 7 top-10s at PGA Championships
and the world where Justin Rose does not finish 1st on that June Sunday at Merion is arguably the most gutting career ledger in the history of the sport.
The bridesmaid, Justin Rose.
The grand slam champion, Phil Mickelson.
And the accumulated careers of the post-Faldo flagbearers of British golf — Lee Westwood, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood — combine for zero major titles (Fitzpatrick and Willett notwithstanding).
Plus4: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course notes
TPC Scottsdale is among my favorite courses on TOUR. Great risk-rewards par 5s, 17 and 18 are beautiful closing holes and the middle part of the course is daunting for those trying to make a steady turn on Sunday. My favorite holes may actually be 11 and 12.
11 is an extremely difficult tee shot where you need to peel a cut between water on the left that progressively cuts into the preferred landing zone, and shrubbery desert off the right side of the fairway. Succeed that, and you have a short-iron to a green flanked by water and bunkers.
There’s no wonder it consistently provides dramatic finishes down the stretch
- Double avoidance: Despite a general devoid of water, Scottsdale has one of the highest total penalty strokes per round of any course on TOUR. Most of this comes off the tee…
- Total driving: There’s a reason that many golfers who succeed here have been steady drivers, not players with a spray and pray mentality. Players of many flavors can win here, but the easiest way is through dominant off-the-tee play that puts you in much easier positions.
- Recent form: Waialae, PGA West, Torrey Pines, La Quinta: all of these are corollary courses and have been played in the last 4 weeks. This tells me that we can lean into recent form to give us a better feel on who succeeds.
- West coast play: Despite TPC Scottsdale being a Dye design and not featuring pesky poa, only 4 of the 19 corollary tracks I’ll feature here east of the MIssissippi River. And zero of those tracks are consistent PGA TOUR venues.
Plus4: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course corollary courses
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
- TORREY PINES (SOUTH COURSE)
- WAIALAE
- THE RIVIERA
- SILVERADO RESORT (NORTH COURSE)
- TPC SUMMERLIN
- EL CAMALEÓN GOLF COURSE AT MAYAKOBA
- MEMORIAL PARK GOLF COURSE
- PETE DYE STADIUM COURSE
- SHESHAN INTERNATIONAL
- OAKMONT
- FIRESTONE (SOUTH)
- LA QUINTA
- NICKLAUS TOURNAMENT COURSE
- CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC
- SPYGLASS HILL GOLF COURSE
- TRUMP NATIONAL DORAL
- EL CARDONAL AT DIAMANTE
- KEENE TRACE (CHAMPIONS COURSE)
- LE GOLF NATIONAL
Plus4 Picks: WM Phoenix Open
Favorite Play:
Sam Stevens: Stevens playing some sneaky steady golf recently, but the putter is letting him down. A change to TPC Scottsdale might be exactly what we need. Stevens has the skill profile of many top players in this field, and his around-the-green progression is what gives me the most hope here. He’s been great out west in the past and is mashing the ball markedly over his averages. Name-brand is the one reason we see Stevens at this price and not $500-$100 above… one good week will change that.
JT Poston: I always love JT at JT trackers. Our last winner at TPC Summerlin. Loves the desert and these Pete Dye trick shot tracks — it should be noted that JT is not a bulky guy, and I’ve seen it too many times where, on hard tracks, when JT draws a tough greenside lie in thick rough, bad, bad things happen. Comes in off elite ball-striking play to a course that should fit his game, if the putter gets hot.
Star Anchor:
Scottie Scheffler: No need to overthink it. Lightning-quick greenscapes? Check. A need to play from the middle of the fairway? Check. Not poa? Check. Recent form? Check.
Ben Griffin: Griffin’s early season play may scare people off. He’s too highly-priced post outside the top 15 and chalk those up as successful weeks. Scottsdale is a great spot for that to flip. Griffin excels when fairway finding matters, and he can show off the ball control repertoire of his game. Look no further than TPC Scottsdale. The ball speed numbers have not dipped too far against where they were last year (now about 177 vs. ending the season closer to 180)… I simply think Ben needed some time back to find it.
Gut Check: J.J Spaun: Admittedly, my numbers do not love Spaun – which is why this is a gut check. In the scoring ranges, he’s 2nd best in the field to Scottie. He’s won consistently on courses that demand accuracy off-the-tee, and he’ll be extremely unpopular this week. JJ WITHDREW. SHAME!
Replacement gut checks would be, in order, Harry Hall, Maverick McNealy, and Davis Thompson.
Harris English: As a Georgia guy, it’s shocking to see the consistent success that English puts up out West. Perennial contender in Summerlin, has lasting success at Riv, last year’s Torrey Pines winner, and somebody who should be able to plot and score this place to success.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Ryo Hisatsune: Ryo will never score with the best of them, but he can grind it out and is driving the ball well above his baseline. His all-time ball speeds sit near 171, and last week he average 174+ with a few bombs (by his standards) in the 176-177 range. That’s noticeable pop – and he more desert experience than most.
Note that this is a pretty small purse when looking at field strength. Don’t be afraid to take a lean you have that’s 10-15 spots down the betting board.
One & Done: Ben Griffin
Plus4 Bets: WM Phoenix Open
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: WM Phoenix Open
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Scheffler, Scottie ($14.5k)
Schauffele, Xander ($10.5k)
Griffin, Ben ($9.5k)
McNealy, Maverick ($9.1k)
Spaun, J.J. ($9k)
English, Harris ($8.6k)
Hall, Harry ($8.1k)
Poston, J.T. ($7.5k)
Stevens, Sam ($7.2k)
Thompson, Davis ($7.2k)
Cauley, Bud ($7k)
Small bites
Kim, Si Woo ($9.9k)
Burns, Sam ($9.4k)
Theegala, Sahith ($8.4k)
Taylor, Nick ($7.8)
Berger, Daniel ($7.5k)Homa, Max ($7.5k) (replaced by Hojgaard, Nicolai)
Finau, Tony ($7.1k)
Sub-7s
Hisatsune, Ryo ($6.9k)
Fox, Ryan ($6.7k)
Hoge, Tom ($6.7k)
Ramey, Chad ($6.5k)
Smotherman, Austin ($6.5k)
Kizzire, Patton ($6.1k)
As always, GL GL GL.
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