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The PGA TOUR comes state-side to the American Express. The AmEx is played in a three-course rota and, compounding that with a pro-am, leads to a terrible television product. I would jokingly say that this event may in the future be event #1 on the ROAD TO THE PLANET FITNESS CUP, quite simply because this is the exact type of event on a chopping block for elimination from the main PGA TOUR schedule, if and when we see schedule consolidation in the next 18 months.
With no Tournament of Champions this year, we get a yuuuuge list of names who are teeing it up for the first time, most notably World #1 Scottie Scheffler at +300 odds in one of the worst fields we will see him in all season. The AmEx is a full-field event with over 150 players and notoriously low scores, creating a lot of work to sift our best fits both in who can outperform their betting odds and/or outperform a DraftKings price.
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Plus4 recap
Chris Gotterup got it done in Hawaii with an elite combination of driving and short game play. This man has a stinger that rivals the one and only Eldrick Tont Woods. Thanks to defensive winds and the aforementioned stinger, Gotterup lead the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee. While his driver started his winning journey, his short game finished.
Chris Gotterup has 3 career wins in a little over two years of PGA TOUR play. His top 3 performances in terms of total strokes-gained in his short-game?
2025 Scottish Open: WIN
2026 Sony Open: WIN
2024 Myrtle Beach: WIN
When Chris scrambles, he wins. Notably, the summer Myrtle Beach bermudagrass green scapes line up very well with what we’d expect to work at Waialae. These are intricacies we will pull into the future…
On Gotterup, he did not, in really any measure, fit the mold of common Waialae winners: long while the course favors short, inaccurate while the course favors accurate, and not an approach leader. His cheat code was the stinger, and a typical outperformance on bermudagrass. I am confident that we will re-tune to find these types of anomolies.
For Plus4, we were right on the brink, deep in the money on Friday and Saturday. Maverick McNealy’s demise tore down my best lineup and whilst losing money, would still call it a well-capped week. In this game, we need the WINNER, and Gotterup slipped through mine and almost every other model seen out there.
Plus4: Pete Dye Stadium Course
Given the Stadium Course is the only course with ShotLink data and has twice the sample of the other courses (the Nicklaus Course and La Quinta), our analysis this week will be exclusive to past Pete Dye Stadium Course performance.
Side bar: Even though Waialae plays harder than the Stadium Course, underlying data tells us that performance is more predictable at the Stadium Course, which rewards total driving distance as well as approach and around-the-green skill.
- Total driving: Past champions are a mixed bag of bombers and plotters, but that shouldn’t stray us from the fact that off-the-tee dominance is the easiest way to attack this course. Approachable pins and big moguls off the fairway favor those that can position themselves well. We will look for players that can gain strokes with driver and put themselves in advantageous spots.
- Dead Bermuda: You’ll see a lot of brown, dormant Bermuda grass on TV. More than just a color contrast, this grass makes around-the-green play easier and creates trick shot opportunities that favor the best around-the-green players.. but if you’re missing greens, you’re probably already cooked.
- A real hit-and-giggle: These are not serious PGA TOUR courses. All 3 courses are easy – the benign conditions across SoCal shouldn’t introduce too much struggle, and the pins at these pro-ams are very accessible and scoring is widely available.
- Within 100 or over 250: Like few other courses on TOUR, most of your strokes-gained will come from approaches within 100 yards (due to the non-serious nature of this course) and over 250 yards (four stretched-out par 5s).
Plus4: Pete Dye Stadium Course corollary courses
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
- TPC SCOTTSDALE (STADIUM COURSE)
- TPC SAWGRASS
- SILVERADO RESORT (NORTH COURSE)
- PORT ROYAL GOLF COURSE
- TORREY PINES (NORTH COURSE)
- GLEN ABBEY
- KEENE TRACE (CHAMPIONS COURSE)
- EAST LAKE
- WENTWORTH
- BETHPAGE BLACK
- SHESHAN INTERNATIONAL
- LE GOLF NATIONAL
- CRANS-SUR-SIERRE
- ABU DHABI
Plus4 Picks: The American Express
Favorite Play:
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($9.5k) – Matthew Fitzpatrick is our favorite play of the week. Fitz comes in with his last start being a win in the Middle East and is making his first AmEx start, historically playing a heavy fall schedule in Europe, maybe Hawaii, and then holding out until Pebble Beach. The end of Fitz’s year was very strong and buoyed by a return of elite iron play. He is among the top in the world in approach play over 200 yards, can scramble with everybody in the field (even Scottie) and is still turning on his prime years. Of the corollary courses, Fitz’ most success has been on the corollary DP World Tour tracks, but that includes 3 top 5s in 6 tries over the past 3 seasons. A two-time winner at the Omega European Masters at Crans-Sur-Sierre.
Scott, Adam ($7.9k) – Ol’ Scott will be a very contrarian play this week. Like Fitz, Scott does not have AmEx experience, which I really don’t mind here this week. Scott’s speed numbers were still very impressive last year, and he started the year in Hawaii finishing 8th in strokes-gained off-the-tee. I pegged Adam last year as the mid-40s player who will have a late career pop – Justin Rose chose to steal that spotlight, but an upcoming President’s Cup gives Adam his own chance to rise again. Adam Scott has played very well on desert tracks both domestic and abroad and still has the long-iron prowess he championed a career from. The fear here is simply “how low can the putter go”.
Star Anchor:
Scheffler, Scottie ($14.2k) – Scottie needs little to no write-up. He’s world #1 and at $14,200 in this specific field, can still be played comfortably. Scottie is fantastic in the desert and fantastic when total driving is critical to success.
Gut Check:
Pendrith, Taylor ($8.9k) – Taylor Pendrith is a longer player who can get hot with the putter. Not a corollary course, but he went super low to with the CJ Cup and has played well in birdie fests in the past. Last year did not have the spike performance to match Pendrith’s original trajectory, but a T6 last week in Hawaii may be signs of a fresh start to this year.
Greyserman, Max ($7.5k) – More than anything in the course comps, I love the way Greyserman scores. Mad Max has had success in the desert, even though these courses can punish inaccurate drivers – that’s not this course. I suspect Max can spray it, make eagles, and get a putter hot enough to truly compete to win.
Li, Haotong ($7.3k) – Haotong is a wildcard, and we love wildcards in events like this. The around-the-green play is admittedly poor, but that gives us upside. If we have good ball-striking, Haotong has the build to succeed in conditions that demand birdies and eagles in bunches.
Favorite Sub-$7,000: With Scottie in the field, you are forced to play below $7,000 if you want to play Scottie. In a field like this that is so big with low projected scores, the names down here are serviceable.
Smith, Jordan ($6.8k) – Jordan L. Smith has a distinct similarity to Haotong, and corollary courses data on the DP World Tour fits both Jordan and his euro-counterpart Haotong. The putter did not cooperate in Hawaii, but driving pop gives Jordan a chance to rise up the leaderboard.
Cauley, Bud ($6.7k) – Bud is not of the build of the guys listed above, but he can score in bunches, especially when low scores are required.
One & Done: Matt Fitzpatrick.
Plus4 Bets: The American Express
Disclaimer
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. The provision makes no sense, and was a casualty to bill-balancing practices that are there to ensure our country doesn’t spiral into uncontrollable debt (wait?) More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
On this board, I see very little. If I had to chase some upside… Jordan Smith, Matti Schmid, and Alex Smalley in non-Scottie markets. At the high-end, Pendrith and Matt Fitzpatrick are two that I could see popping through great long-iron play that, if putter cooperates, shoots them up the board.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: The American Express
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Scheffler, Scottie ($14.2k)
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($9.5k)
Burns, Sam ($9.8k)
Straka, Sepp ($9.2k)
Pendrith, Taylor ($8.9k)
Scott, Adam ($7.9k)
Hojgaard, Rasmus ($8.5k)
Greyserman, Max ($7.5k)
Thompson, Davis ($8.2k)
Smalley, Alex ($7.4k)
Li, Haotong ($7.3k)
Smith, Jordan ($6.8k)
Cauley, Bud ($6.7k)
Small bites
Poston, J.T. ($8k)
Schmid, Matti ($7.1k)
Mouw, William ($7k)
Hoge, Tom ($6.5k)
Wu, Dylan ($6.2k)
VanDerLaan, John ($6.2k)
Sub-7s
Nakajima, Keita ($6.5k)
Shipley, Neal ($6.9k)
Ryder, Sam ($6.6k)
Van Rooyen, Erik ($6.6k)
Phillips, Chandler ($6.5k)
Lower, Justin ($6.2k)
As always, GL GL GL.
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