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BACK ON HILO.
Welcome all, to the 2026 PGA TOUR. A new year is upon us, and nobody knows what storylines will unfold. As we lead into the season, I will ponder each of these budding storylines.
How will the new LIV Golf player return path impact TOUR competitiveness?
Can Scottie Scheffler remain on a win trajectory not seen since Eldrick Tont Woods?
Will Jordan Spieth realize his return amid the jam-packed schedule he has committed to play?
These questions, and a bunch more, will unfold in a year that I expect to be truly great for the PGA TOUR. Brian Rolapp is now in charge, fully releasing the TOUR CEO role from the inhibitions of a complete post-COVID shitstorm that divided the golf world. Within months we have…
- A return path for LIV’s greatest
- A new Fall schedule
- New events in Miami, Asheville and at courses that should shine.
And it’s only up from here.
Where have Plus4 been, and where will Plus4 go from here
To those asking, “where ya been 4”?
Quite simply, I had to shut it down after the 3M last year. Weddings of dear friends, wedding of family and then my own wedding. A stretch that I had to remove myself from the addiction of BI models and ball speed tracking to spend the time (phone down) with those that mean most.
Then a Holidays stretch trying to rally it all back together.
“Well 4, the holidays are past?”
This is correct. The culprit now? Curt Cignetti, Fernando Mendoza and your Indiana Football Hoosiers. We’ve been on the road tracking our Hooeys on their magical journey, myself continuing that journey with some 4heads down to Miami Beach.
In my headspace, I was to use the winter to advance the migration of the model to MS Fabric, of which I’m working on a few new features that I, one day, want to bring into this market.
“What this will bring to you 4heads?”
Just a more-tuned model advancing the core Plus4 principles underpinning all of the research, data science, and rambling.
We’ve made progress in migrating the model to a scalable platform with integrated loading jobs, a cloud-driven semantic layer, and new ways to query the data. The new model will focus on skill-level performance by course, understanding not only where total course performance is corollary, but the underlying skills and attributes driving this.
As we move in to Microsoft Fabric, the goal is leveraging machine learning capacities to drive these calculations at scale. We aim to eventually build a Lineup Grader for Premium subscribers and friends. This ensures your lineups are tuned with players that play well together.
For now, we rescind into the weeds to breakdown the Sony.
Plus4: Waialae CC
This will be our last Sony Open, with the sponsorship ending this year. All indications go towards a full removal of the Hawaii Swing in future years, alongside substantial scheduling changes. For golf nerds like I, this is a sad but understandable move by CEO Rolapp.
There are few warm sensations for TV Golf lovers. Augusta National on a bloomful Thursday morning. Pebble Beach Saturday afternoon tee times. The Open Championship over a warm cup of joe… and seeing beautiful Hawaii on your big screen on a January Sunday evening while stuck in the frozen tundra. There are few contrasts like your TV screen boasting a lush Waialae and your window showcasing the dull, dreary elements of a Chicago, IL bluster.
In Waialae, we lose the longest-running single-course event on TOUR. A staple for the short grinders who love peppering fairways and riding hot putters. This is in no way a bombers track, and is most notably defended by tiered greens that, from the wrong greenside position or wrong fairway attack angle, can make it impossible to get close. This is a ball control course and has produced winners who lean into such concepts, such as Russell Henley, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Na, and our GOAT Cam Smith.
- A focus on Par 4 scoring: A par 70 that plays on the easier side of TOUR courses, scoring on the only two Par 5s on the course is critical to success. The larger number of Par 4s requires excellence from 125-175 yards… of which over two-thirds of approaches will come from.
- Wind: The seaside nature out on the island can make wind a storyline. Historically, winds have played a factor here. The stronger approach players who keep their success in windy conditions (a la Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, and a wily Jordan Speith) should have an advantaged in a forecast that shows projected winds up and over 20mph consistently.
- Flat track: Waialae is a parkland-type course that sits oceanside with none of the elevation change Kapalua provided over the year. Driving distance is not accentuated here, and does not provide much of any edge to a golfer.
- Scrambles: The main defense of Waialae is a Par 4 scoring rate that sits right at TOUR average and wind that can make hitting greens a challenge. I project some clammy hands at the top of the leaderboard Sunday that forces our winner to be strong around-the-green.
Plus4: Waialae CC corollary courses
The common links below: courses that demand par 4 scoring, are short but not cakewalks, funky west coast greenscapes that are flatter (and more boring) than dramatic, fast eastern seaboard or Florida tracks, wind-prone courses. Oddly enough, almost every Southeast Asia course in my model correlates with Waialae.
New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.
- HARBOUR TOWN GOLF LINKS
- COLONIAL
- PGA NATIONAL RESORT (THE CHAMPION)
- TORREY PINES (SOUTH COURSE)
- TPC SAN ANTONIO (OAKS COURSE)
- FIRESTONE (SOUTH)
- GENZON
- BRABAZON COURSE AT THE BELFRY
- AL HAMRA
- VIDANTA VALLARTA
- REGNUM CARYA GOLF & SPA RESORT
- TPC KUALA LUMPUR
- NINE BRIDGES
- LAGUNA NATIONAL G&CC CLASSIC COURSE
- DURBAN
- GALGORM CASTLE
- MONTEREY PENINSULA
Plus4 Picks: Sony Open
Favorite Play:
Conners, Corey ($8.6k) – If the wind stays elevated, Corey should thrive. Conners’ bug at Waialae has been on the greens, but that can flip at any point and his loss of 3 strokes putting last year is not anywhere near Corey’s baseline. Conners has played The Sentry in the last few years, and I prefer Corey coming in without that first event at a course whose greens are much different than Waialae’s. Corey is 14th in pricing this week even while being a cornerstone top player in fields like this in recent years. Colonial and San Antonio as notable corollary courses that are wind-affected and in which Corey has had success at.
Spieth, Jordan ($8.3k) – Maybe I’m just wishing this happens again. Jordan has committed to playing a big schedule, but it may only take 1 to get a 2026 win. Waialae requires players who can beat the wind and get hot with the putter. In these years of Speith’s drought, it’s been the big stick holding him back – in this run, he’s stayed successful at places like Colonial, Harbour Town, PGA National, and in San Antonio. Those are the shortest tracks Jordan plays… and Waialae fits that mold. Do enough off the tee to let the irons shine, grind a few Spiethian chip-ins, and ride a nuclear putter.
Star Anchor:
Henley, Russell ($10.3k) – Henley is a staple at these types of accuracy-demanded courses. Last year alone, Henley had top 10s here at Waialae, at PGA National, Harbour Town, Portrush, and at San Antonio in 2024. DG #6 with a complete game and somebody we can be confident to put together a start worthy of a top 10
Gut Check:
Gerard, Ryan ($7.3k) – Gerard notably went to South Africa twice at the end of the year to get inside the OWGR Top 50 and receive a Masters invite. Stateside, Gerard has been successful as a nearly every corollary course he has played… anchored by top 5s in San Antonio and PGA National, and top 30s at another 4 corollary courses. The key here? A league-average putting performance.
Favorite Sub-$7,000: Going below $7,000 in a field this distributed with talent may not be necessary. I see a big drop between all of my players below $7.2k. That spot is the tipping point.
Ramey, Chad ($6.7k)
One & Done: Corey Conners or Jordan Spieth.
The One & Done I play is the Race to the Mayo Cup… and you should too: Fantasy Golf Championships
Plus4 Bets: Sony Open
Transparency to the 4heads: I will not be betting Outright golfers at the rate I did last year (aggressively) given the current legislation related to non-fully-deductible gambling loses. I need to see full clarity from DraftKings in addressing this preposterous attempt by Congress to destroy the gambling ecosystem of which lobbyist have poured billions into and the public at-large has been referendummed to death on.
The classic counter to this for any educated gambler at large? Underground and illegal sports betting. Venmo accounts, paper money bags, a college junior named Kyle you meet behind Butch’s Delicatessen… whatever gets the job done. The provision makes no sense, and was a casualty to bill-balancing practices that are there to ensure our country doesn’t spiral into uncontrollable debt (wait?) More info: Gambling Tax Alert: New Law Cuts Loss Deductions, Bettors Face Big Hit
How I fight back? I will play more Daily Fantasy, as income through DFS is miscellaneous through a 1099-MISC, not a W2-G that will be subject the 90% deduction of losses.
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
Plus4 Player Pool: Sony Open
Reminder: the player pool below is focused on DraftKings ownership, inclusive of leverage considerations and player upside.
Overweight
Henley, Russell ($10.3k)
Spaun, J.J. ($9.5k)
Kim, Si Woo ($9.4k)
Conners, Corey ($8.6k)
McNealy, Maverick ($9.2k)
Spieth, Jordan ($8.3k)
Kirk, Chris ($8.8k)
Gerard, Ryan ($7.3k)
Parry, John ($7.2k)
Li, Haotong ($7.2k)
Small bites
Harman, Brian ($8k)
Hoey, Rico ($8.1k)
McCarty, Matt ($7.5k)
Smith, Jordan ($7.2k)
Stevens, Sam ($7.3k)
Grillo, Emiliano ($7.4k)
Knapp, Jake ($7.8k)
Brennan, Michael ($7.6k)
Sub-7s
Eckroat, Austin ($6.9k)
Hisatsune, Ryo ($6.5k)
Ramey, Chad ($6.7k)
Garnett, Brice ($6.3k)
Finau, Tony ($7.1k)
Ford, David ($6.7k)
As always, GL GL GL.
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