Plus4: Recap

Scottie gets it done for a 4th major in the last 16 major starts. I say that any course Harris English or Brian Harman can compete at, Scottie dominates. The approach play is just too good and he’s the super-sized version of both those plays. Sawgrass, River Highlands, Scottsdale… all of ’em places where Scottie dominates.

Rory, Bryson, Rahm separate themselves more through distance off-the-tee… Scottie separates himself with the irons and around-the-green. The shorter and tighter you make the track, the better Scottie gets. Can you Scottie-proof a course? I think not… and if you do, the game will be much more variant behind Scottie, the staple.

Plus4: TPC Twin Cities

Generally, Twin Cities is very scorable and easy on the scale of PGA TOUR venues. This is where the PGA TOUR journeyman can hit and giggle their way to a win. Water looms, but the course is not tricky in any sense… this and the ability to dismantle the course with driver can lead to young players popping up with big finishes.

• Accuracy plays: TPC Twin Cities has amongst the highest fraction of penalty strokes per player per round. This is due to water (or OB) lurking off many fairways and some ludicrous carries over water on approach. This leads to driving accuracy being more important here than most places… you will want to manage accurate drivers with those who can still play long-irons well. Too short? the iron in is too long to stick it close. Too wild? the ball is already in the water. Note that many prior winners here (Vegas, Cam Champ, Wolff, and Finau) are all very long drivers of the ball – but they almost all were also hitting fairways during that stretch. Long and straight? The course becomes very, very scorable.
• Easy putting: A TPC course in the mid-west with very fair greens and a lack of undulation. These greens are not tricky and even bad putters can get hot on these. The surfaces rate almost easiest on TOUR. Generally, the whole course is easy.

Plus4 Picks: 3M Open

Favorite Play:
Matti Schmid – A stretch of 7th, 17th and a poor Open weekend to finish 69th. Portrush was not his course, but Twin Cities should be. 12th here last year and a positive at 16 of the 20 corollary courses he’s played both in the US and Europe. An elite drive of the ball with one weak skill: around-the-green play. If he hits almost every green like we hope, that won’t matter. I love both the DK price and the odds.
Jesper Svensson – Back on Jesper. A great Open finish and now a course where he can ball strike his way up a board. Bad or streaky putting? No issue here. More than anything I trust Jesper to make a stupid number of birdies. If everybody is hitting water balls, the 2 that Jesper is destined to hit may not look that bad.

Star Anchor:
Mav McNealy – Recent stretch of 5th, 37, 17, 22 and 23 with positive ball-striking each time. That stretch of ball-striking should look EVEN BETTER for a guy like Mav. 3rd at Harbour Town and 8th at Kapalua this year. Longer and more accurate than most with strong long-irons. My only fear is the course doesn’t play difficult enough, as Mav tends to play best at harder courses.
Sam Burns – Sammy is the class of the field. He has shown the ability to blitz a field with a driver/putter combination, and this is a good spot to try that once again. 12th here last year with good showings at Innisbrook (prior winner), Harbour Town, Quail Hollow and Kapalua. Positive at 10 of 13 corollary courses played and lost in a brutal playoff at the RBC Canadian, which I could see playing similar from a scoring and conditions perspective to this week.

Gut Check:
Jacob Bridgeman – Bad in Scotland but remains great in the United States of America. The driver can get wide, but he has played well here, at Sedgefield and in Florida where driving accuracy is key. The irons fit the range and we know the putter can get very hot.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
You don’t need to go here. If you do, Seamus Power, Chandler Phillips and Takumi Kanaya will have my money.

One & Done: Burns

Plus4 Bets: 3M Open

Open outright bets:
This is an event really anybody can win. Bad putters can get hot and ball strike their way to a victory, provided a modicum of length and scorability.

• McNealy 20/1
• Schmid 80/1 (love this!!!)
• Matt Wallace 60/1 (more on top 20 and top 10 as he has no winning gene)
• Regretfully, I bet Sungjae at 50/1 before I ran the full model. The driver and irons are very wild still but I love transparency and that’s what we do.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool: 3M Open

The player pool does not dip too much into the 6s this week as there’s a lot of value in the 7s. In fields like this, I don’t see a huge difference between $8.5k and $7.2k which makes lineup building easier.

Overweight

Burns, Sam ($10.5k)
McNealy, Maverick ($10.3k)
Greyserman, Max ($9.3k)
Kitayama, Kurt ($8.7k)
Svensson, Jesper ($7.6k)
Wallace, Matt ($7.6k)
Bridgeman, Jacob ($7.5k)
Vegas, Jhonattan ($7.4k)
Schmid, Matti ($7.3k)

Small bites

Clark, Wyndham ($9.8k)
Fowler, Rickie ($9.5k)
Thompson, Davis ($8.8k)
Homa, Max ($8.3k)
Clanton, Luke ($8.1k)
McCarty, Matt ($7.2k)
Moore, Taylor ($7.4k)
Hisatsune, Ryo ($7k)
Hoge, Tom ($7k)
Springer, Hayden ($7k)

Sub-7s

Phillips, Chandler ($6.9k)
Power, Seamus ($6.8k)
Kanaya, Takumi ($6.6k)
Skinns, David ($6.7k)
Rosenmueller, Thomas ($6.6k)