Plus4: Recap

Chris Gotterup, the Jersey Boy, the Big Sleazy, the Coors Light King stares down Rory McIlroy all the way home to his first signature professional win. Gotterup crushes the ball and has made the most strides in eliminating the erratic off-the-tee play. A fantastic college golfer, we saw this potential in Gotterup. He has a great, stoic attitude built for big events and the skillset matches it. Even if this remains his biggest win, he has the skillset to tackle some of the games toughest tracks and biggest events.

WE HAD THE GOTTERUP TICKET. On the widest card of the year, we got it done across a few different markets… a winning ticket all the way through the top 20 market.

The rest of the card played atrociously bad golf – and this is a stupid trend I can’t kick. We’re winning in DFS and having great runners on the gambling card, but the top 2-4 guys I LOVE every week play terrible. I can trim it to 20, but I can’t for the life of me trim it to 2-4 key plays. Hopefully a blip. Take that for what’s it worth.

Tangent: a huge legend is brewing in Gotterup, but a Euro-legend in Marco Penge finished in the top 5 is also coming up. Still young, absolutely bombs it, and also one of us as a noted golf gambler: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/cr56r57edd5o

Plus4: Royal Portrush

From the corollary courses, the 2019 Open and 2012 Irish Open, and added research, Royal Portrush is a fly-ball track. There are a plethora of great courses better played through the ground. That is not Royal Portrush… elevated greens and a quick transition from landing area to penal spots make this a fly ball track.

As you look at the corollary courses, see the difference in ground-ball tracks and fly-ball tracks. PGA National, Waialae, Albany are not the same, but from a ball-striking perspective they are very much fly ball tracks. Many of the Florida courses fall into this. I won’t say fly-ball tracks have a single defining trait, but almost all of them reward driving accuracy and approach play relatively more than other courses. This can be a sight-line thing, this can be a design thing, and this can be a winds thing… but there exists a collection of these tracks.

Reminder that this is the only rota course in Northern Ireland. Looking at topography, know that the tips of Ireland are way more rugged than the common spots in Scotland and England, and that shows in Royal Portrush, the corollary courses, and who will play well. You will need to flight it as the ground is simply too littered with deep knobs into no man’s land.

For anyone that knows my game, I am not a fly-ball player. Ground and pound, run the ball, a few blades that work out fine, yada yada. My golf ball goes in the hole faster than yours but it DOES NOT take the scenic route.

• Penal off-the-tee: The most important skill at Royal Portrush this week will be driving accuracy. Missing fairways here typically means either A) a pot bunker, of which there are admittedly few when compared with most other Open rota courses or B) in extremely lush, almost bushy side slopes. This is where I feel the comps of PGA National come to life. If you miss BADLY at those tracks, you’re probably in jail.
• 150 to 225 yard play: With strokes to be lost by missing fairway, I expect a LOT of driving irons and 3 woods this week, leaving players in longer approach bins. Wind-laden courses typically put pressure on these approach bins, and that will come to light again.
• Around-the-green play: Around-the-green play at links courses is much different than most other courses. The leaderboard in 2019 was littered with the elite ARG players, especially those that have great success off tight lies. While a links tracks, Portrush is more ‘rugged’ in a sense, with less of the general flatness seen at other Open rota courses. This in itself will elevate the elite around-the-green players and hamper those that typically struggle in around-the-green play.’ Putter from off-the-green will be an option, but a less prevalent option than at other rota courses.

Plus4 Picks: The Open Championship

Favorite Play:
Viktor Hovland – A winner at 4 of 14 courses he’s played, including Albany, Olympia Fields, Innisbrook (this year) and Munich. Contended last week on Sunday until a bad double bogey late, and this was after injury fears leading up to it following a Travelers WD. He actually drove the ball better last week then his prior stretch and should be able to translate that to Portrush. Great tee-to-green player and a real fly-ball player… I can already imagine an 18th hole close-up of those squinty eyes tracking a moonball to a 6-footer that closes out his first major.
Tommy Fleetwood – Tommy plays his best game in Europe. It’s very clear. 2nd here in 2019, watching Shane stroll up 18 while in the final group. The corollary course lineup is very good, even stateside with a good record at Innisbrook and Southern Hills. My odds really favor Tommy’s consistent game, especially with driver accuracy but really all the way through the bag. Grown men who’ve done this for a decade will shed tears if its Tommyboy.
Tyrrell Hatton – A bad Andalucia is not good to come in on, but he did mix at Oakmont last month. When we get to the UK he plays great, and 6th here last time. At the top of the field in approach play over 150 yards whilst keeping a steady driver.

Star Anchor:
Jon Rahm – The corollary course fits do not pop, but that’s true for each of the Scottie, Rory, Rahm, Bryson quartet. Good (along time ago) at Albany, Sherwood and Liberty National, great at Olympia and Wentworth. While the games are different between him and Hatton, they both love a long-iron challenge and should welcome the strategy needed at Portrush.

Gut Check:
Corey Conners – The iron play needs to rebound, but Corey at his best is a fly-ball hitter. Innisbrook, Waialae and the Liberty/Sherwood/Sheshan/Nine Bridges of the world he always shows up at. A U.S. Open WD that cascaded into a T47 (poor irons) last week will scare most away.
Ben Griffin – They may have forgotten about Ben Griffin. MC last week, but the Florida and course track performances are fantastic. I believe he was my pick to win Waialae (he didn’t) – great at Port Royal, PGA National, Sea Island all in the past year. Even a top 5 probably secures a Ryder Cup spot for a deserving Ben Griffin.


Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Maverick McNealy – Mav is just better than the guys down here. He’s great in the wind, mixing at a number of corollary tracks. Winner at Sea Island and good at Waialae historically. There are number of Florida guys who love to play through the wind… Mav is the west coast version of that with consistency as an accurate driver and much improved long-iron player to match with his always good around-the-green play.
Taylor Pendrith – Definitely a gut check play. Pendrith has hit the ball great recently but cannot string together 4 in a row. A good Scottish Open and the ability to tee-the-green this place should make it easier on Taylor. No Open history…
Andrew Novak – Very consistent through the bag and great from tight lies around-the-green. Not what I think of as fly-ball hitter but great on windy and/or difficult tracks with a 2nd at Port Royal, 9th and 12th at Waialae and PGA National respectively. We will need great iron play for his standards.
Kevin Yu – Many will go to this range and play exclusively Marco Penge. I like Penge and I will play some Penge, but Kevin Yu will be a very rare pivot. Coastal and Florida corollary tracks he’s played? A 3rd at Port Royal, 11th Sea Island, 12th and 9th at Innisbrook and PGA National, 21st at Waialae. The short game is spotty but I do see him as a guy to like these slower, fescue greens and the ball striking is trending back to where we expect for and extremely talented player.

One & Done: X

Plus4 Bets: The Open Championship

Open outright bets:
I really don’t love the value being screamed out at me this week well down the board. My numbers going into these odds may be over-inflating the DP World TOUR courses, which tend to provide more volatile adjustments.

Having my money will be the below, admittedly a lot in other markets as the guys at the top of the board scare me from actually finding a champion. The numbers listed are outrights, but the legal books will have ‘Winner Without’ markets at albeit shorter odds. I’d rather not hold a Pendrith 130/1 ticket if he is 2nd place but 5 shots behind Scottie.

• Fleetwood (28/1)
• Waiting for a Hatton and/or Hovland slip
• Justin Thomas (searching for a 50/1)
• McNealy (110/1)
• Griffin (90/1)
• A wee bit on Corey Conners (75/1) or Pendrith (130/1)

Down the board I will look at:

• Andrew Novak (200/1 to win with deep placings i.e. mainly top 5, top 10, top 20, etc.)
• Kevin Yu (180/1 to win in the deep placings)
• Laurie Canter (350/1 to win in deep placings)

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool: The Open Championship

A lot of lineups will be full AM/PM wave splits, as is tradition with The Open. The issue is there are no wave splits so you kind of need to eyeball it! When I won the big won in 2022, I actually played 3 waves… early, middle AND late as most optimizers will just do Early/Late and the sun may spin differently for the guys right in the middle of the day.

The list below is big, but I implore you to try to focus in on one wave if between 2 guys. Weather can destroy half-the-field and give you an edge.

Overweight

Rahm, Jon ($10.4k)
Fleetwood, Tommy ($9.5k)
Schauffele, Xander ($9.7k)
Hatton, Tyrrell ($8.9k)
Aberg, Ludvig ($9.1k)
Hovland, Viktor ($8.3k)
Thomas, Justin ($8.5k)
Griffin, Ben ($7.3k)
Conners, Corey ($7.2k)
Pendrith, Taylor ($6.5k)
Novak, Andrew ($6.2k)
McNealy, Maverick ($6.1k)
Yu, Kevin ($5.8k)

Small bites

Scheffler, Scottie ($14.2k) – there is so much win equity in these two guys.
McIlroy, Rory ($11.5k) – there is so much win equity in these two guys.
MacIntyre, Robert ($9k)
Henley, Russell ($7.9k)
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($7.8)
Burns, Sam ($7.4k)

Sub-7s

Bhatia, Akshay ($6.7k)
Lee, Min Woo ($6.9k)
English, Harris ($6.4k)
Svensson, Jesper ($6.1k)
Penge, Marco ($6k)
Smith, Jordan ($5.9k)

ADD: A very small amount of Canter.