Plus4: Recap

2 weeks of pain: A kickass Grillo ticket falls in a playoff to freakin’ Brian Campbell. I can’t call him Shrimpy as that’s a name in the proverbial rafters, but we need a name. Sloth, Biscuit, Worm. If he’s going to rob me of this money, we need a name.

This, of course, follows a Greyserman playoff loser last week. Back-to-back weeks of the superior Playoff competitor falling short with my money backing them.

Our Plus4 Picks shined, regardless of the Grillo crumble. We were very high on Kitayama, Thorb, and final pairing participant Davis Thompson. Kevin Roy and Carson Young were also prominent in the player pool and made runs. The real downer was our chosen king Ryan Gerard, who LED THE FIELD in tee-to-green through 2 rounds, but proceeded to LOSE SIX STROKES PUTTING to miss the cut on the number. That’s the painful one, as he was primed for a great run. Gerard’s putter is a serious issue for him in the last 8 weeks – once it corrects we will be ready to pounce.

Plus4: The Renaissance Club

The below and corollary courses will show you that this is not a true Links course. It’s more of a long, parkland style track than built like the fully mown, super-fast Links tracks that The Open is contested at. Around the greens, you will still see lots of putter.

• Approach play around 175 yards: Over 40% of approaches will come from 150 – 200 yards, and upwards of 55% between 150 – 225 yards. That’s a massive quantity and rips the 9 irons, pitching wedges, and sand wedges out of most of these guys hands. It will not play like a John Deere where you can plod from fairway to green with nothing but an accurate driver and 9 iron.
• Very easy around-the-green play: Renaissance does not feature super dramatic greens complexes. If you avoid the pot bunkers, getting around here is very easy, especially around the greens. Guys comfortable from tight lies should have a field day… it’s a spot where Min Woo won as a newbie in 2021. These types of lies are where you see Justin Thomas chip in 5 times.
• Difficult putting under 5 feet: A weird dichotomy, this is the hardest spot to make putts under 5 feet. Blame it on the fescue greens and crazy pinmakers.
• Distance plays: Missing fairways means very little here, as long as you avoid the pot bunkers. Distance is correlated with success, especially since the field expanded. Bobby, Rory (2023), Xander (2022) and Min Woo (2021) can all poke it out there with the best of them.

Plus4 Picks: Genesis Scottish Open

Favorite Play:
Hojgaard, Rasmus ($7.9k) – Rasmus has a killer stretch last summer to cement his spot as a years-long PGA TOUR player. That stretch did not translate to the states, with middling finishes and one 2nd place in Zurich. Rasmus has been great in Europe in his career and has 2 top 21s in his last 3 starts here. Only 24, a bomber, and coming off a Rocket Mortgage MC where the irons were the best they’ve been all year. Emirates, Le Golf National, International and Crans-Sur-Sierre all places with corollary tendencies and strong finishes from Rasmus.
Greyserman, Max ($7.8k) – The playoff loss won’t scare me away. The profile of distance and great putting is what I look for on these types of tracks. 5 corollary course performances go 36th, 23rd, 21st, 15th, 4th… he’s trending up and this has been a breakout spot for some.

Star Anchor:
Schauffele, Xander ($10.1k) – X has not had that breakthrough performance since the rib surgery, and 3 weeks ago was his worst. Winner here before, at Royal Troon and TPC River Highlands, good performances at East Lake and good at Winged Foot (they say it’s the American links…. eh not sure I buy it). It’s X and people are off of him… so I’ll be on.
Thomas, Justin ($9.2k) – JT for years has been elite when the mid irons are leaned upon. He likes hard tracks and has a top 8 at 5 of the 7 corollary tracks he’s played since 2019. My only fear? He loses 7 strokes putting. That putter is positive in 6 straight starts.
MacIntyre, Robert ($9.1k) – Great from over 175. Loves to pop it out there when the course allows for it (like here). Loves these green types and consistently awesome at corollary courses. Coming off a win and runner-up here.

Gut Check:
McNealy, Maverick ($8k) – Mav was great early in the year, middled, and is now reascending. He’s been strong here before (back in 2022), good at Summerlin, Houston, River Highlands and Diamante. The irons used to be his worst stat, but those are very strong now and he’s shown positive on these types of greens.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Li, Haotong ($7.1k) – Haotong is only 29 years old. He’s younger than Greyserman somehow. Haotong has had a fun early career ride reaching OWGR #30 in 2019 before plummeting well past 500 in prior years. He’s now back up around 100 thanks to a strong year. A winner at Doha, good at the Dunhill Links (Scotland), and is weeks removed from a stretch of 4th, 51st, 2nd, 4th, 27th with a 4th at a corollary course in China. For DraftKings purposes, he scores like a mad man.

One & Done: X

Plus4 Bets: Genesis Scottish Open

Open outright bets:
My numbers show a big favoring of the middle-pack vs. the top-end guys like Scottie and Rory, which in this big a field will give us lots of value. I will be waiting until Wednesday when I see weather to make a final play…

I will say I have that JT feeling this week. I won’t pass up the Hojgaard, Haotong and Gotterup value that’s screaming at me.

I am in markets with:

• Hojgaard
• Greyserman
• Gotterup
• Svensson
• JT to win
• Haotong
• Ewen Ferguson
• Grant Forrest
• and Nacho Elvira
• Small amount on Wallace and Oleson

Easily my widest card of the year.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool: Genesis Scottish Open

A lot of lineups will be full AM/PM wave splits as that’s a key defense of the course. This player pool reeks of high volatility and guys that score. You will need good scoring at open courses like this that have volatile scoring swings.

Overweight

McIlroy, Rory ($11.4k)
Schauffele, Xander ($10.1k)
Thomas, Justin ($9.2k)
Hovland, Viktor ($9.3k)
MacIntyre, Robert ($9.1k)
Aberg, Ludvig ($9.4k)
McNealy, Maverick ($8k)
Hojgaard, Rasmus ($7.9k)
Greyserman, Max ($7.8k)
Noren, Alex ($7.5k)
Li, Haotong ($7.1k)
Gotterup, Chris ($7.1k)
Olesen, Thorbjorn ($7.4k)
Wallace, Matt ($7.3k)

Small bites

Scottie – Scottie rates out very poorly and has, since 2023, 3 wins and no finish worse than 7th in 7 starts at corollary tracks. He breaks the model. I have no way to track this, but Scottie in my mind never wins in the cold. WARM BODY PLAYER! I’ll have maybe 10% Scottie and that’s LOW in comparison to others.
Scott, Adam ($8.6k)
Hall, Harry ($8.4k)
Pendrith, Taylor ($7.9k)
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus ($7.6k)
Berger, Daniel ($7.4k)
Stevens, Sam ($7.4k)
Svensson, Jesper ($7.0k)

Sub-7s

Ferguson, Ewen ($6.9k)
Schmid, Matti ($6.9k)
Forrest, Grant ($6.5k)
Elvira Mijares, Nacho ($6.2k)