Plus4: Recap

The Greyserman 35/1 and “one-and-done” winner comes up painfully short. I’ve been a Greyserman tout since he first came on TOUR. He has a keen ability to play to a course’s advantages, bombing it and being a great putter. If those irons come along, he will elevate from the tier reserved for Patrick Rodgers to the heights of the Tony Finau tier. The sole difference between these tiers?

1. Stones
2. Under 125-yard approach play

It is a tier that Tony Finau acclimated from years back, Wyndham Clark elevated from, and Greyserman hopes to jump out of. Also see: Kitayama.

Aldrich Potgieter knocks off his 1st win at Detroit GC. The spray-and-pray mold was on full display, with AP and Greyserman running ahead of the board off massive drives. In the playoff alone, Potgieter had a 195 ball speed 363 yard bomb… which only beat Greyserman by a measly 2 yards. Detroit lived up to being a putting contest that rewarded those massive bombers who let it rip and figured out how to loft a wedge in there from wherever they ended up.

Plus4: TPC Deere Run

TPC Deere Run, on the banks Moline’s Rock River, is the quintessential easy PGA TOUR course. There is little defense in Deere Run and primarily comes down to short approach play, capitalizing on the 3 par 5s, and putting.

• Easy, easy, easy: In terms of off-the-tee, approach, and putting play, TPC Deere Runs ranks near the bottom percentile in all key stats. Around-the-green? It shouldn’t even matter. If your guy is missing greens, he’s not winning. ARG is Straka’s one buggaboo and something I see J.T. Poston always get the yips on… those 2 were not held back from wins here in 2023 and 2022, respectively
• Odd-lie approach play: The one key item that is hard to quantify at TPC Deere Run is the elevation change and approaches from uneven lies that are featured here. There are few courses that mimic this, but the most notable one is Augusta National. It is tough to try to comp any course to Augusta, but I believe that if you can strike irons well at Augusta, you will have a similar advantage here, at Kapalua, and at some of the southeast Asian golf courses that traverse some mountainous areas. There are guys who are great on approach on flat courses (I think of a guy like Keith Mitchell here who loves flat Florida tracks) and guys who excel on wacky, elevated courses (a Spieth figure, even Hideki).
• Driving accuracy: Even with off-the-tee showing as an easy statistic, I will be making sure my player pool features guys who can gain in driving accuracy. Accuracy is the one key stat that shows a strong statistical draw here – I believe this comes not from the length of rough but from the need to elevate shots to elevated, tiered greens more than anything. I’d rather have an uneven lie from 125 in the fairway than pound it down to 75 and try to be that guy to elevate a lob wedge and try to land it perfectly up top.

Plus4 Picks: John Deere Classic

Favorite Play:

Ryan Gerard ($8.5k) – I pronounce this Ryan Gerard week. He is the perfect blend of “enough distance”, a fairway finder, and a player who should putt well on these midwest tracks. I got on Gerard before the Florida swing, he played well, and I believe here is where he reacclimates and find the winner’s circle. Has a 4th at PGA National and hit irons great on the elevation swing of Quail Hollow. He’ll be in upwards of 75% of my lineups.

Star Anchor:

Ben Griffin ($10.4k) – Griffin debuted here last year with a 5th and has 4ths at both Vidanta and PGA National. The ball-striking has been elite and he continues to play every week to ride this hot form. Truthfully, I wish he took a week here in preparation for Scotland next week and the Open the following. My true odds put him around 17/1 with nobody else below 30/1, when you get to Gerard.
Lucas Glover ($9.0k) – Lucas is always difficult to nail. The combination of form and fit make this an easy choice here. In my approach model, Lucas Glover tops the field. He comes off a 9th at the Travelers where he gained almost a stroke OTT per round and struck the irons great. A prior winner here, he fits the ARG and putting mix as well.
Thorbjornsen ($9.1k) – 4th last week as he returned from a nagging wrist injury. Thorbjornsen is a gamer. The short game and ability to close scares me more than the guys above, but the talent is immense.
DT ($9.6k) – I do love Davis Thompson, and he’s the defending champion. This was not the course fit I expected, but he struck the irons great at Augusta and I’ll be on him in Kapalua. We’ll be on DT until he’s in the 20s week-in and week-out.

Gut Check:

Kitayama ($7.7k) – I think many people on January 1 would have pegged Kitayama to be $9.7 at the John Deere, not $7.7k. For that alone, I’m in. A debutant who is hitting the ball very well and needs to find the putter. I think the easier greens here will help him find a groove a post a good finish. Be honest now… is Chris Gotterup really that much better than Kitayama?
Grillo ($7.5k) – Grillo has shown the ability to hit irons at elevation. Sporadic early in the year, he has 4 straight top-25s before shaking people from the scent with a bad Detroit. Top 5s at 4 of the 11 corollary courses in his profile.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:

Steven Fisk ($6.9k) – Warning: he’s amongst the worst putter on TOUR. Fisk was 7th in Vidanta and can score with the best of them. Elite OTT and under 125… hit it close enough that you don’t have to even sweat it.
Jeremy Paul ($6.6) – A name commonly featured here. Odd but guys who play well here also play well in Eastern Europe. Thinking grass type, weather… maybe it’s the cheese curds. Who knows. A real gut check.

One & Done: Gerard

Plus4 Bets: John Deere Classic

Open outright bets:
Gerard 40/1 for all but one marble, which is reserved for a Grillo dart.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool: John Deere Classic

Overweight

Griffin, Ben ($10.4k)
Thompson, Davis ($9.6k)
Thorbjornsen, Michael ($9.1k)
Glover, Lucas ($9k)
Kirk, Chris ($8.9k)
Gerard, Ryan ($8.5k)
Kitayama, Kurt ($7.7k)
Grillo, Emiliano ($7.5k)
Roy, Kevin ($7.4k)
Salinda, Isaiah ($7.1k)

Small bites

Im, Sungjae ($9.2k)
Gotterup, Chris ($9.3k)
Knapp, Jake ($9.4k)
Ryder, Sam ($7.1k)
Eckroat, Austin ($7k)
Kim, Chan ($7k)

Sub-7s

Fisk, Steven ($6.9k)
Springer, Hayden ($6.9k)
Koivun, Jackson ($6.8k)
Young, Carson ($6.7k)
Paul, Jeremy ($6.6k)
Pak, John ($6.4k)