Plus4: Recap

The 4heads cash a pretty 45/1 penny on Keegan Bradley as Tommy Fleetwood melts away on the 72nd hole. Truly astonishing lacking of “it” out of Tommy on 18 after a fantastic golf shot on 17 to challenge the water from the far fairway bunker… when that ball was in the air and smacked the green, I thought that would give Tommy the confidence boost he needed to get it across the line. The cruel golf gods had other thoughts.

Our Plus4 player pool was very situated across the weekend, with the biggest misses being at the very top of the pool – TPC River Highlands is always a difficult comp, and Rory + Scottie were not featured in the pool in what was a gutsy move. That decision, and Aberg’s ineptitude with a 54 degree week, cost me big time down the stretch. Even with Aberg finishing in the back-half of the field and Rai floundering on Sunday, we had a chance to win big money into the final stretch.

Keegan cashes the 45/1 plus his top 5, Henley cashes his own top 5, and Fleetwood and Day put up big DK points.

Plus4: Detroit Golf Club

Detroit Golf Club is an old Donald Ross design renovated in the mid ‘00s to fit in the new Detroit-based PGA TOUR event.

• Few penalty strokes: For those that have played Donald Ross courses, they meander mainly through parklands and DO NOT have significant hazards or penalties looming. The risk and reward from a penalty strokes perspective is not prevalent – the defense is in the architecture and not the land itself (like a Florida course).
• Minimal rough: The penalty for missing fairways is very minimal here. If Detroit GC wanted to make this a more difficult event, they would grow the rough… that’s simply not the case here. Those players who “bomb and gouge” have more leeway here than common courses. Guys like Cam Young and Greyserman fit this case.
• Under 100 or over 200 yard approach: This course has the lowest tracked percentage of approaches between 125 yards and 200 yards of the courses we’ve played this year. A lot of this is attributed to there being 4 par 5s and the course being fairway long for what it is. Guys who underperform at that mid-iron range will benefit here, guys like Taylor Moore, Wyndham and Jaeger

Plus4 Picks: Rocket Classic

Favorite Play:

Greyserman ($9.1k) – Last year, 2nds at both TPC Twin Cities and Sedgefield. Good history at Memorial Park where missing fairways also doesn’t matter. Greyserman can score wild on the par 5s and is coming in off a good stretch of positive approach play, which is what is historically his weakest part.
Davis Thompson ($8.1k) – I simply love DT and expect him to pop this summer. The time is now to start to string back-to-back-to-back great showings at courses that should fit his game. Thompson has a 2nd here, positive showing at Sedgefield, and noted above a KFT maiden victory at a Donald Ross track. The numbers don’t pop like they do for Greyserman, but the talent is going to rise. Gained over 1 stroke on approach per round at TPC River Highlands.

Star Anchor:

Cantlay ($10.2k) – Patty has a 2nd here and good results at corollary courses. More importantly, he always looks comfortable at these northeast/midwest tracks on old-style tracks. The putting figures on corollary putting surfaces also pop.
Griffin ($9.8k) – Not shocking, Ben Griffin rates well. Griffin is very good over 200 yards and should be in spots to attack these par 5s and score well on those alone.

Gut Check:

Noren ($7.8k) – Noren is not a bomber, but also doesn’t fit the straight-baller mold of above-average 100-175 yard approach play. Noren has posted good finishes at Craig Ranch, TPC TC and Memorial Park, where this style of wild OTT and strong approach play comes to light.
Jaeger ($7.7k) – Jaeger’s ball speed numbers are continuing to pop, and he has a similar build to Noren in the approach category of success under 100 and over 200 yards. This should play to his strengths as a long-iron player who has a squirrely driver.
Matt Wallace ($7.5k) – Another one. I can almost repeat the above prompts for Noren and Jeager for Wallace. Great results at those long-iron demanded courses where scoring on par 5s is paramount.
Rico Hoey ($7.3k) – Uncle Rico has a 6th here, good results at Sedgefield and in Houston, a 2nd at Keene Trace (strong corollary) and comes in off a stretch of positive ball-striking.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:

None of note. There are many good players in the $7k range and I don’t see a big drop-off from the $8ks-$9ks range where you really need to dip into the $6ks too much!

One & Done: Greyserman

Plus4 Bets

Open outright bets:
Wallace, Noren and Jaeger will get my money as outright, T5 and T10s.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool

Overweights

Cantlay, Patrick ($10.2k)
Griffin, Ben ($9.8k)
Greyserman, Max ($9.1k)
Thompson, Davis ($8.1k)
Young, Cameron ($9.3k)
Clark, Wyndham ($8.6k)
Noren, Alex ($7.8k)
Jaeger, Stephan ($7.7k)
Wallace, Matt ($7.5k)
Hoey, Rico ($7.3k)
Kim, Tom ($7.5k)
Perez, Victor ($7.4k)
Bridgeman, Jacob ($7.3k)

Small bites

Moore, Taylor ($7.6k)
Castillo, Ricky ($7.1k)
McGreevy, Max ($7k)
Salinda, Isaiah ($7k)
Homa, Max ($7.3k)

Sub-7s

Hadwin, Adam ($6.8k)
Paul, Jeremy ($6.7k)
Cone, Trevor ($6.4k)
Goodwin, Noah ($6.4k)
Onishi, Kaito ($6.1k)