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Cromwell, CT plays host to a SNOOZER of an elevated event following last week’s grind at Oakmont. Bodies will be sore as the best in the world head to a short, delightful TPC River Highlands in the northeast. The elevated events that follow majors are always weeks where random guys pop up on leaderboard, and groupthink sets in around betting cards. Everybody gets lazy – from the players, the caddies, the gamblers and the broadcasters – where one sees laziness, others see opportunity.

Carlos Ortiz was THAT CLOSE to glory. Our+2200 T5 gets chopped but we get a full complement on the T10 and T20. Our player pool was overweight on MacIntyre, Hatton, Ortiz, and Adam Scott and I nearly took down the big $15 even without winner and flat stick God J.J. Spaun.

Spaun gained over 10 strokes putting to win at Oakmont. He will have a spot at the Ryder Cup because of this. Spaun is a prototype PGA TOUR journeyman – a guy usually going week-to-week just collecting paychecks off strong play and a few pop finishes. Winning a U.S. Open gets him a very rare place in history, but in all honesty, I think this is just a surprise blip in a delightful, professional career and not a sign of Spaun being a top 25 golfer worldwide. Call me a hater.

Tangent: That long of rough is just stupid. Golf is a game of risk and reward. The best tournaments put you in positions to evaluate taking on risky shots… it’s why Augusta is great and why courses like TPC Scottsdale are fun. Oakmont and the USGA completely stripped the factor of risk/reward with that length of rough, and the viewing enjoyment suffered for it.

I understand the notion of trying to “identify the best golfer in the world” by creating an impossible set-up. In doing this, you create a much worse TV product. Call me a hater

Plus4: TPC River Highlands

At the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont, there were a combined 8 rounds under par for the entire field all week. Angel Cabrera had 2 of those and won. That’s all you need to know about this devilish place.

A Gil Hanse renovation has changed the course slightly, but the teeth are just as sharp. There are very few trees and zero water at Oakmont. It swallows you slowly, not suddenly. The rough is complete death. Short-side bunkers are death. Long is probably death. My approach bins this week have amongst the highest number of 50-100 yard approaches we will find all year simply because players will have no choice but to splash out and scramble.

Plus4: TPC River Highlands corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

River Highlands is a short king paradise. A short track that puts almost all pressure on the 90-150 yard approach bucket. This course used to produce some journeyman winners – those journeymen are no longer invited here.

TPC River Highlands is not a course to be overpowered. Everything here is about ball control both with driver and short irons. Missing greens is very penal with difficult ARG play. A set-up like this should favor players coming off good form at Oakmont, as ball control is almost always the top factor at USGA set-ups.

This is a course that “flattens” the field. Guys in the middle echelon of the TOUR can compete, as those players are typically the shorter, more accurate players. As driver becomes less of a weapon, we look further down the board for value and dampen what is typically the largest advantage for the better, top-ranked players.

1. CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC
2. RIDGEWOOD
3. ST. GEORGE’S G&CC
4. KEENE TRACE (CHAMPIONS COURSE)
5. SHERWOOD
6. TRUMP NATIONAL DORAL (2014 ONWARDS)
7. CONGAREE
8. COLONIAL
9. GRAND RESERVE
10. GLEN ABBEY
11. SEA ISLAND
12. THE RENAISSANCE
13. THE CC OF JACKSON

Plus4 Picks

With all that said, Scottie typically destroys these setups. Anywhere that the longer players are punished, Scottie dominates through tee-to-green excellence. I will be fading Scottie in what will be a small number of lineups for me this week.

Favorite Play:

Aaron Rai ($7.5k) – Aaron fits this place so well. Great with short irons and one of the most accurate drivers on Earth. It’s not the sexiest play, but my numbers say Aaron Rai should be 26/1 in this field, 3rd on the odds board. I’m not sure I’ve seen a player-specific bump such as that and it alarms me.

Star Anchor:

Xander – X has a strong history here that includes a win and despite a guy who loves banging driver, he tends to play continue his strong play when that weapon is removed. His consistent play is bubbling up. There are a few longer, more difficult courses that pop up in correlation, and Xander plays all of those well.
Ludvig Aberg – Aberg has a 2nd at CC of Jackson, a win at Sea Island, and a 4th at the Renaissance. Aberg has struggled to find his ceiling game this year – let him run free at more of a pitch-and-putt and I believe his starpower will resurface.
Fleetwood – Is Tommy a star? Not sure. He MC’d at the U.S. Open and I’m perfectly okay with that. The irons are strong and he churns out top 5s and top 10s at shorter courses such as this. When the people get off Tommy is when he will win out-of-the-blue. TPC River Highlands could very easily be that moment.

Gut Check:

Ben Griffin – Griffin continues to churn great results. And this is another course that should suit his game. A winner at a short, corollary track at Colonial, Griffin also has a 2nd at CC of Jackson and 2 top 15s on Sea Island before his game took this leap.
Daniel Berger – At $7.5k, this is another safe DK play. Berger is best at the courses that strip driver out of hands. The greens should play to Berger’s liking… he hasn’t played any of the last 5 iterations of this event, but should fit the course very well with strong histories at Sea Island, CC of Jackson, and Harbour Town.
Keegan Bradley – I may be oversimplifying the exercise here. His 100-150 game is great, he’s from the area, and in the last 3 years he’s churned out 3 top 5s at 3 of the 6 corollary courses he’s played.
Bobby MacIntyre – I expect the strong form to continue for the U.S. Open runner-up. The irons are incredibly hot and these greens should fit Bobby’s eye.

Favorite Sub-$7,000:

Max Greyserman – Of the 4 corollary courses that Greyserman has played, he’s finished 15th, 21st, 22nd, and 27th. The irons are not awesome, but Greyserman has enough pop and short-game prowess to post good scores without needing to lean fully on the 100-150 yard range bins.
Fitzpatrick – Simply mispriced for a guy coming into form at a short course. These were Fitz’ bread and butter a few years back, and may become that again.

One & Done: Rai (gross)

Plus4 Bets

Open outright bets:
I’m going a pretty clean card here trying to hit some mid-size winners. All names below have a win + a T5 bet. It’s a disgusting betting board and if this is the leaderboard come Sunday, I may be the only one watching CBS!

1. Aaron Rai
2. Shane Lowry
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Bobby MacIntyre
5. Russell Henley
6. Mackenzie Hughes

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool

I am forgoing this section of the post this week as I play minimal lineups due to a busy personal schedule. My player pool will consist of those discussed above.

As always, GL GL GL.