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The year’s 3rd major: the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. Pittsburgh is back in golf’s spotlight as it hosts a record 10th U.S. Open… the site of Jack’s first major in 1962, it is the quintessential championship venue and, being frank here, will beat the piss out of almost every player in this field. Tighten your shoes, stretch a bit extra, and prepare to grind.

Quick here: We had a strong Thursday, but that don’t pay bills. Ryan Fox wins again as our guy Burns falls in the playoff. I was overexposed to Rory, and his 78 on Friday sealed my fate.

Proud of Jesper for fighting.

Plus4: Oakmont Country Club

At the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont, there were a combined 8 rounds under par for the entire field all week. Angel Cabrera had 2 of those and won. That’s all you need to know about this devilish place.

A Gil Hanse renovation has changed the course slightly, but the teeth are just as sharp. There are very few trees and zero water at Oakmont. It swallows you slowly, not suddenly. The rough is complete death. Short-side bunkers are death. Long is probably death. My approach bins this week have amongst the highest number of 50-100 yard approaches we will find all year simply because players will have no choice but to splash out and scramble.

Plus4: Oakmont corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

Course history at Oakmont is limited, but it ain’t zero. We were able to pull a few corollary courses and trim it down to a comfortable list.

What holds across this list? A strong reward for driver accuracy, without a dominance of layups and dog legs. At a high level, these are traditional, straight, difficult golf courses that demand you keep the ball straight in front of you. This is true of the many desert courses that floated into my model this week. Whether you find yourself under a cactus or in arm-breaking rough, you are cooked either way.

Notably, Oakmont features very old poa annua greens. And the limited course fit we have shows that bad putters can survive here. Northeast poa is always wacky, but as we go through the southwest / desert poa circuit, many of those courses effectively favor “bad” putters because poa is simply harder to read, predict, and get comfortable on. I am not afraid of bad putters this week, provided they have driving accuracy and good long-iron play.

1. EAST LAKE
2. FIRESTONE (SOUTH)
3. TPC SCOTTSDALE (STADIUM COURSE)
4. MUIRFIELD VILLAGE
5. LE GOLF NATIONAL
6. RIDGEWOOD
7. WENTWORTH
8. REAL VALDERRAMA
9. TPC BOSTON
10. TPC POTOMAC AT AVENEL FARM
11. SHERWOOD
12. EL CAMALEÓN GOLF COURSE AT MAYAKOBA

Plus4 Picks

You’ll find a common mold for me this week: guys who can gain driving through the fairway (distance a plus, but not required), good mid-to-long iron players, guys who play great when driving the ball is very difficult, and guys who don’t usually lean on their putter.

I see this is as the perfect recipe for a U.S. Open grinder, and it should be evident in most players you see here.

Favorite Play:

Bryson – At $11k, this is a pricing play off Scottie. I give Scottie a 19% chance to win, and Bryson 15%. If Bryson plays this place strategically, he shouldn’t have an issue. Capitalize on a few short par 4s, and lean on the putter. Bryson had a chance to win here in 2016, folding late… this time around gives Beefcake Bryson another chance at Oakmont glory as a back-to-back U.S. Open champion. Everyone thinks distance, but he’s a solidly accurate driver of the ball even with that distance. Go hit it to 25 feet and try to splash a few putts.

Star Anchor:

Rahm – Jon Rahm comes in off a great PGA Championship run to a northeast venue he should be able to attack. A “Rahm” course has a few characteristics: it’s tough, it neutralizes “great” putters (one could argue Rahm is now a great putter, but ehhhh), it usually has poa annua, and it requires not just length but total driving. Oakmont, albeit in Pennsylvania, checks all of those boxes.
Scottie – Even with the above, I will have a good mix of Scottie. As I go past Rahm at $10.2k, I simply don’t see much difference between the $7k and $9k ranges. It’s very easy to build a Scottie lineup you are proud of, especially on this straight-baller setup. Gun to head, I’d build around Bryson, but pricing dynamics make it possible to take both paths.

Gut Check:

Justin Thomas – I’m afraid to admit I’m playing JT, which is why I hide the name here. JT is a weird bag as his game changes with his mentality. He’s 45/1, nobody wants to play him, and in his last 6 starts he has a win, 2nd and 2nd. That’ll do donkey. Notably, I see these successes at course that do feature very difficult off-the-tee circumstances. Harbour Town is quirky, but it’s hard OTT; Innisbrook a longer version of that with an even higher placement on OTT; and Philly Cricket with it’s oddities put an onus on gaining fairways. If JT can translate that driver game to this place (and keep his mental), I don’t see why he can’t compete with the guys in the group above.
Matsuyama – 2-time TPC Scottsdale champion, straight-ball wizard, and propensity to pop on poa. Hideki won in Kapalua and has done almost nothing since… the driver got bad and he looked uncomfortable. This week is a great reset for grinder Hideki to return.
Hatton – Tyrrell went to LIV on a great heater and, somehow, driver became his best weapon for a stint. That has reversed slightly, but I trust Tyrrell to play from the middle of fairways. We know the top-end approach play still exists in there and at $7.6k, he’s very affordable. East Lake, Wentworth… both places that Tyrrell has had success hitting it high and straight.
Berger- Straight-baller on a difficult track where par is rewarded. That’s the Daniel Berger mix right there. A popular pick at Quail Hollow, I think this set-up is where Berger’s game is rewarded. Back-to-back missed cuts have people way off the scent!

Favorite Sub-$6,500(?):
The new pricing changes this a bit. I consider the bottom to be below $6.5k.

Davis Thompson – I love DT’s game at places like this. Plays USGA set-ups great and a high pedigree player who should make a leap soon. He will be 1/7 the ownership of Harris English, and I think he’s the superior golfer. DT fits the course very well and was 9th at Pinehurst last year.
Carlos Ortiz – Age 34 and in the midst of one of his best years out on LIV. He’s a good player with good poa history and a good track record of playing “straight baller” tracks well. 9 career major starts: 7 missed cuts, 52nd, 55th. Not great Chucky, but most of that is now 4+ years ago.

One & Done: Rahm (simply due to the LIV box-out)

Plus4 Bets

Open outright bets:
Scottie scares the piss out of me. For the Ortiz, Berger, JT realm, I will be focusing on T5 and specialty market plays. Justin Thomas at 45/1 is a lot… enticing but maybe dumb.

Add: Bryson +650 in Winner Without Scottie. I give Bryson’s true odds with Scottie to be +610, so +650 without Scottie is nice to see.

For those curious about my top 6 in odds to win (by %)…

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool

Very overweight

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($14.4k)
2. DeChambeau, Bryson ($11k)
3. Rahm, Jon ($10.2k)
4. Thomas, Justin ($9k)
5. Niemann, Joaquin ($8.6k)
6. Matsuyama, Hideki ($8k)
7. Hatton, Tyrrell ($7.6k)
8. Finau, Tony ($7.3k)
9. Berger, Daniel ($6.8k)
10. McNealy, Maverick ($6.8k)
11. Scott, Adam ($6.6k)
12. Thompson, Davis ($6.5k)
13. Ortiz, Carlos ($6.4k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Hovland, Viktor ($8.5k)
2. MacIntyre, Robert ($6.7k)
3. Bhatia, Akshay ($6.7k)
4. Poston, J.T. ($6.6k)

Under $6.0k

1. Gerard, Ryan ($6.1k)
2. Olesen, Thorbjorn ($6k)
3. Woodland, Gary ($6k)
4. Echavarria, Nico ($5.9k)
5. Ghim, Doug ($5.9k)

FOMO

1. Cantlay, Patrick ($9.3k)
2. Smith, Cameron ($7.2k)

As always, GL GL GL.