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TPC Toronto plays host to the RBC Canadian Open. A lovely event that tends to produce a true champion with weekend drama. It’s never the most memorable course, but it’s always a true test the Canadians put on up North. Rory McIlroy leads a field that lacks much star pop outside himself, the Canadians, and a number of “name brand guys” trying to find form leading into next week’s U.S. Open.

Plus4: Recap

Scottie, a staple. Scottie runs away on Sunday (maybe Saturday? kind of?) to win another PGA TOUR event and his 2nd Memorial tournament. There is little competition for Scottie out here, ESPECIALLY on the difficult courses that demand driving accuracy. Maybe nobody ever in the game of golf has had more “total control” of their golf ball than Scottie…

Tiger? Jack? They were the bombers of their era. Equipped, physically, to dismantle competition more by overpowering than out-finessing. It may be impossible to find a comp for Scottie… and I’m glad we don’t have to.

A number of guys we were on had high finishes, but nothing high enough to cap Scottie. We tread water and move onward.

Plus4: TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley

TPC Toronto is a course we’ve not seen on the PGA TOUR. It’s played host to prior professional events, but never the big dogs. A recent renovation led to widened fairways, difficult greenside complexes, and what is noted by the designer as high bunker faces that will make fairway bunkers even more penal. The rough is said to be high as a “warm up” for the U.S. Open, but I believe that is more of a defense mechanism by Canada Golf than anything about warming up players for their neighbor’s national open.

All indications are that the par 71, nearly 7,400 yard layout will demand a few things: total driving, long-iron accuracy, success in long greenside rough. When small greens meet long greenside rough, it creates a complete crapshoot. If you aren’t in position off-the-tee and can’t hit these greens, you’re beholded to whatever lie you get. This will favor guys who play the mid-west and northeast courses well, as they are more in tune reading and playing these lies than the Bermuda and poa guys from sunny states.

Plus4: TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

My frankencourse this week blended:

• Detroit (long rough that leans to distance)
• Keene Trace (leans to distance and mid-west)
• Sheshan Itnl. (generally, difficult and leads to good players)
• The Old White TPC (favors long players)
• Winged Foot (apparently the renovation lead tried to mimic the great things of Winged Foot? sure.)
• Trinity Forest
• TPC Potomac (long rough, total driving play)
• Southern Hills (not 100% bought in on this one)

The frankencourse creates the long list below of corollary courses. It’s a long list of courses that mostly demand long approach play, length off-the-tee, and total driving.

1. DETROIT
2. KEENE TRACE (CHAMPIONS COURSE)
3. SHESHAN INTERNATIONAL
4. THE OLD WHITE TPC
5. TPC POTOMAC AT AVENEL FARM
6. WINGED FOOT
7. TRINITY FOREST
8. SOUTHERN HILLS
9. ABU DHABI
10. GALGORM CASTLE
11. GENZON
12. ROYAL GREENS
13. GRAND RESERVE
14. RINKVEN INTERNATIONAL
15. DLF G&CC PLAYER COURSE
16. TPC BOSTON
17. ALBATROSS GOLF RESORT
18. MARCO SIMONE
19. CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC
20. FIRESTONE (SOUTH)
21. TPC TWIN CITIES
22. DLF G&CC
23. MUIRFIELD VILLAGE
24. PINEHURST RESORT (NO. 2)
25. THE OF JACKSON
26. DIAMOND
27. QUAIL HOLLOW
28. INNISBROOK RESORT (COPPERHEAD COURSE)
29. CARNOUSTIE
30. VALHALLA
31. MEMORIAL PARK GOLF COURSE
32. EAST LAKE

Plus4 Picks

Favorite Play:
Jesper Svennson – long, great tee-to-green player who, with his skill, hasn’t popped yet. Better DK play than a bet.
Star Anchor:
Rory – not very difficult here… he fits this place so well and I expect after an odd month, he gets a good tune for the U.S. Open.
Gut Check:
Wyndham Clark – Wyndham has had a middling year with a lone top 14 finish this calendar year. The bar is much higher than that for Wyndham… the speed numbers are back, but the irons have been bad for a month… that will flip at some point, elsewise he drops back into the Patrick Rodgers mold that he sat in for years before his 2023 renaissance.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Below $7k is a crapshoot. Jesper is a great play at $7,200 alongside Isaiah Salinda. Salinda WD’d from the Colonial before his round on Saturday, which makes little sense and yet to has an explanation tied to it. Steven Fisk, William Mouw, Jeremy Paul, and Hayden Springer will have spots in my lineups.

One & Done: Wyndham

Plus4 Bets

Open outright bets:
I don’t love where the value lies and the boost is mainly to guys with long DP World TOUR histories. Nothing yet… if I see any life of Jesper and a high number is hung, I’ll be on him LIVE.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool

Very overweight

1. McIlroy, Rory ($11.9k)
2. Conners, Corey ($10.1k)
3. Pendrith, Taylor ($9.6k)
4. Burns, Sam ($9.3k)
5. Clark, Wyndham ($8.6k)
6. Homa, Max ($8.2k)
7. Wallace, Matt ($8k)
8. Smalley, Alex ($7.6k)
9. Schmid, Matti ($7.5k)
10. Power, Seamus ($7.3k)
11. Salinda, Isaiah ($7.2k)
12. Svensson, Jesper ($7.2k)
13. Fisk, Steven ($7k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Hall, Harry ($9.2k)
2. Clanton, Luke ($9k)
3. Olesen, Thorbjorn ($8.7k)
4. Riley, Davis ($7.9k)
5. Grillo, Emiliano ($7.1k)
6. Perez, Victor ($7k)

Under $7.0k

1. Lower, Justin ($6.9k)
2. Paul, Jeremy ($6.7k)
3. Lashley, Nate ($6.6k)
4. Mouw, William ($6.6k)
5. Springer, Hayden ($6.5k)

As always, GL GL GL.