The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial in Dallas, Texas. Scottie is here in a field that features him, the short-course ringers, and most guys from 40-125 on the TOUR list. I love these fields and the opportunity to cash a fat bag. Let’s go!

It’s a unique, Bermuda track in a city that has courses with many grass types. Fun fact: the PGA TOUR pros love to live in Dallas because it has the climate to hold courses that are Bermuda-laden, ryegrass, bentgrass, even some variations of poa! Players get the feels they see all year across one city.

Plus4: Recap

Scottie took down the PGA. Very frustrating, but Quail Hollow simply did not play as it was comped. Shorter players were not separated from the field and it did not seem to favor the best players – that’s an indictment on the PGA of America for creating a circuit that didn’t separate the good players from worse players. I don’t expect many major venues to play like that going forward.

You may ask, “well, Scottie is the best player in the world, and he won, so how’d the course not separate the best?”. Simple answer is that Scottie is literally the Superman of classic course – Tiger took down every difficult, skill-separating course… think Torrey, Bay Hill, East Lake, etc… Scottie is the Superman of the easier courses. Short and sweet, if J.T. Poston can compete at the course, Scottie will win the tournament.

Inside baseball: I’m spending too much time writing these! I will be trimming down the content to speed this up into a ~45 minute writing process each week. The meat will be here, you’re just going to lose some trimmings.

Plus4: Colonial

• Short course: Of any course on TOUR, driving distance plays no factor here. And this is not because so many holes are forced layups or unattainable doglegs, it’s simply a short, flat, Bermuda course. A lovely country club that winds conveniently.
• Old man game: Given the shorter length, year-over-year play at Colonial, and demands on short-game and short-iron approach play, old guys can contend here. Colonial is liable to give us a wacky winner given the length of the course just constricts the ability of good, longer players to separate themselves.
• Par 70: Another par 70 track. Usually, we want to find those players that make eagles and birdies with their length through the par 5s. There is less scoring to be had, so it does mitigate that scoring differential we typically expect from longer players. See our article on DK scoring: Plus4 Swing Thoughts: Why you should only play bombers in PGA Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS).

Plus4: Colonial corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. ST. GEORGE’S G&CC
2. EMIRATES
3. HARBOUR TOWN GOLF LINKS
4. TPC BOSTON (3)
5. RIDGEWOOD
6. TPC RIVER HIGHLANDS
7. GOLF OF HOUSTON (2)
8. THE OF JACKSON
9. TPC SAN ANTONIO (OAKS COURSE)
10. WAIALAE
11. MEMORIAL PARK GOLF COURSE
12. EL CARDONAL AT DIAMANTE
13. ROYAL GREENS
14. ROYAL TROON
15. GRAND RESERVE (1)
16. SEA ISLAND (PLANTATION COURSE)

Plus4 Picks

Favorite Play:
Daniel Berger – It’s now his time. He had late steam last week, but that’s the PGA – this is where Daniel Berger has always done his best damage. Winner here before, 3rd at Harbour Town (comp course) last month, 2nd and 7th at Sea Island and CC of Jackson in the Fall swing (comps)
Mav McNealy – Should be unpopular in relation to the guys around him. A winner at Sea Island, also 3rd at Harbour Town and 3rd in San Antonio (comp courses) both in the last 8 weeks. He’s the real deal having his best year and after this week will be looked at as Ryder Cupper.
Star Anchor:
Scottie is the talk this week, rightfully. I’m under ownership on him.
Similar can be said of Spieth as I will be right near ownership
My money will mostly be found with Berger, Mav and then Ben Griffin, relying a lot on that mid-7s range.
Gut Check:
Kevin Yu – The CC of Jackson winner is a legitimate ball-striker, and under-owned vs. a wild guy like Grillo. He’s not the best course fit, but he’s a gamer who could tear this place apart just as well as the guys $1,500 more than him.
Mac Hughes – No way I’m ever told you to play Mac… let’s hope this is the one-timer we need. The corollary courses scream Mac, who was playing well until he turned into Helen Keller with the putter last week (rare sight as he’s a great putter). Good Texas player, better in the Sun Belt (CC of Jackson winner) with top 3s at TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town and Sea Island. 10th in Houston this year where he always plays well.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Jesper Svensson – I’ve been riding this crazy guy and hope he can compete!

One & Done: Mav

Plus4 Bets

Open outright bets:
No outright bets as of yet. I may jump on those Hughes, Kirk, Berger and Hoffman bets in a non-Scottie market.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Plus4 Player Pool

Very overweight

1. Berger, Daniel ($9.9k)
2. McNealy, Maverick ($9.5k)
3. Griffin, Ben ($8.7k)
4. Harman, Brian ($8.5k)
5. Hughes, Mackenzie ($7.9k)
6. Yu, Kevin ($7.4k)
7. Cole, Eric ($7.3k)
8. Kirk, Chris ($7.2k)
9. Thorbjornsen, Michael ($7k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($13.7k)
2. Spieth, Jordan ($9.8k)
3. Novak, Andrew ($8.2k)
4. Hall, Harry ($8k)
5. Gerard, Ryan ($7.9k)

Under $7.0k

1. Hoffman, Charley ($6.9k)
2. Svensson, Jesper ($6.9k)
3. Valimaki, Sami ($6.9k)
4. Kuchar, Matt ($6.8k)
5. Fisk, Steven ($6.6k)
6. Mouw, William ($6.4k)
7. Springer, Hayden ($6.4k)
8. Lashley, Nate ($6.3k)

FOMO

1. Eckroat, Austin ($7.1k)
2. Woodland, Gary ($7.3k)
3. Smalley, Alex ($7.7k)

Inside baseball: Time from opening the blog to post? 37 minutes. If there’s typos, I really don’t care! Good on me.

As always, GL GL GL.