adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust
We are back with the player pool for the 2nd major of the year. It will be intriguing to see if driving distance meets the hype that’s been bestowed upon it. My player pool below features guys with common skills: off-the-tee prowess, long iron play, and putting. The man that strides at the top of those skills is Bryson DeChambeau – he will be my pick to win the year’s 2nd major in what I project to be a LIV-heavy leaderboard.
The below content will exclusively feature my picks, one & done, and DFS player pool.
If you missed Sunday’s post, check out this week’s 2025 PGA Championship: Course Preview, Corollary Courses and Course Insights! post for a more detailed look into the course and our players to watch.
2025 PGA Championship: Course Preview, Corollary Courses and Course Insights!
The 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow features a competitive field, including top players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Success requires strong driving and long-iron play due to the course’s…
Keep reading
Plus4 Board
Open outright bets:
My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool
My board features:
- Bryson top North American +600 – why fight Rory if you don’t have to, and many of my long-shots are players from across either pond.
- Patrick Reed outright, T5, T10 +9000
- Burmester outright, T5, T10, T20, top african, top rest-of-world +14000
- McKibbin outright, T5, T10, T20, T40 +30000
- Nakajima outright, T5, T10, T20, T40 – after further review, I wish I had this back.
- Ryan Fox top Oceania +800
- MacIntyre top lefty +280
- AND, winning score below 273.5 strokes – that is -11 for those too lazy to do math. Soggy conditions, a forecast that currently doesn’t give me fear of the wind, a rainy spring that will give the greens an approachable hue, a clear breakout of the top 3 guys on the board tell me that somebody is breaking the -10 threshold… and it’s +105.
Nothing on Oleson yet.
A look behind the Plus4 model:
Below is a metric I’ve been using, analyzing course history through a normalized and decayed measure. For all players in the field, you can see a breakdown of how players perform at the courses our plus4 analysis deems corollary courses.
Player-by-player corollary course performance, ordered by DraftKings price.
Favorite Play:
Reed, Patrick ($8.1k) – Reed has success here before and comes off a great Masters where he claims he putted below his baseline. The driving distance isn’t huge, but the ball speed shows more pop in the bat. I simply think Reed is underpriced compared to his major history and his history here.
Star Anchor:
McIlroy, Rory ($12.2k) – Rory ranks as the best player in the field in my models. He’s won 4 times here and has the major monkey off his back. He should, at minimum, contend with a chance to win… and he scores more DraftKings-points-over-expectation than all but the one guy listed below.
DeChambeau, Bryson ($11.5k) – The Scientist has the tools to solve a soppy Quail Hollow. Most will ask about his iron play, but I think his putter is what carries him to the winner’s circle.
Gut Check:
Burmester, Dean ($6.9k) – Dean features the elite skill needed: driver play. He also loves difficult courses – we get both this weekend in what stacks up to be a LIV-heavy leaderboard.
Favorite Sub-$6,000:
See below…
One & Done: Bryson
I am very heavy on Rory and Bryson up top, then filtering in some Scottie and the middle range. This can be done because I’m super heavy on my guys between $5.6k and $6.1k – I struggle to believe 2 of Bryson, Scottie and Rory won’t be in contention with legitimate chances to win on Sunday, and with that I want to have many lineups with 2 of ’em and then lean on an underpriced Patrick Reed and a number of guys under $6k that are just as good as the guys priced $1,000 more.
Very overweight
- McIlroy, Rory ($12.2k)
- DeChambeau, Bryson ($11.5k)
- Niemann, Joaquin ($9.6k) – I may regret this
- Reed, Patrick ($8.1k)
- Finau, Tony ($7.4k)
- MacIntyre, Robert ($7.5k)
- Burmester, Dean ($6.9k)
- Olesen, Thorbjorn ($5.8k) – Thorb has done nothing in America, ever. He’s a very quality golfer and most majors is priced above this – let’s hope this is the time, at age 35, where he delivers a quality result in a US-hosted major.
- Griffin, Ben ($5.7k) – The ball speed is now around 178 mph, which trends above guys like Scottie, Viktor and Collin. Last year we were near 173… I believe Ben Griffin’s best weapon is his short-game so if the driver is a plus, he should be just as good as those guys in the $7k range.
- Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus ($6.1k) – My lineups kept findings Ramsus – I’m admittedly more weighted here than I should be, but the ball striking was too enticing.
- McKibbin, Tom ($5.6k) – I’ve said it for months – he has the elite skill you need to succeed. The best story is a great finish that includes a weekend pairing with Rory. The irons and putter must cooperate, and those come with age.
Good volume
- Scheffler, Scottie ($13.4k)
- Schauffele, Xander ($10.7k)
- Cantlay, Patrick ($9.5k)
- Hovland, Viktor ($9.8k)
- Hatton, Tyrrell ($9k)
- McCarthy, Denny ($6.7k)
- Fowler, Rickie ($7.1k)
- Novak, Andrew ($6.6k)
Under $6.0k
- Bridgeman, Jacob ($6k)
- Thorbjornsen, Michael ($5.7k)
- Power, Seamus ($5.6k)
FOMO (light exposure)
- Fox, Ryan ($7.9k)
- Pendrith, Taylor ($6.7k)
- Spaun, J.J. ($6.4k)
As always, GL GL GL.
Leave a comment