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TPC San Antonio plays host to the final opportunity for a number of PGA TOUR pros to get into The Masters. We are one week away from the first major the year, but plus4 will not let a prime opportunity to hit a winner go by!

Plus4 Recap:

The legendary Min Woo was not on the card, but I still believe we capped the week well. Memorial Park is always a fun place, but the lift, clean, place + soft greens made it play a little different than prior years. Trying to incorporate weather-related intel is the toughest part of this game, especially when its rain and moisture that chemically changes the way the course plays. We move forward…

Plus4: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)

• Ball-striking premium: TPC SA is perennially in the top quartile of approach play difficulty. Controlling short irons and wedges in persistent winds is required here, and the list of players who succeed here are all natural ball strikers. For those that miss these tiered and smaller greens, difficult bunkers litter this place…
• Bunker play: Around-the-green play at TPC SA is most commonly done from greenside bunkers. Around-the-green success is key, and the guarded par 5s + drivable par 4 naturally leave players in these sandy lies.
• Old-man game: While a fun course with a ball-striking premium, young and inexperienced players do not thrive here. Knowing where to miss and being able to salvage par when you do tends to separate the top. Just scanning prior leaderboards, this is not a place where rookies pop up. You must control your ball so intricately that the veterans hold an advantage here.

Plus4: TPC San Antonio (Oaks) corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Bay Hill
2. Pebble Beach Golf Links
3. Waialae
4. Tahoe Mountain (Old Greenwood)
5. TPC Boston
6. Colonial
7. Monterrey Peninsula
8. St George’s Golf & Country Club
9. Nine Bridges
10. Trump Doral (Blue Monster)
11. Firestone
12. Doha GC (Qatar Masters)

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at TPC San Antonio (Oaks)

Ranked by projected skill

1. Corey Conners: It is tough to turn your eyes away from Corey Conners. He’s great in Texas, is a two-time winner here, 3rd at Bay Hill, and 6th at THE PLAYERS among a string of 3 straight top-8s. Corey tunes it up right around now almost every year.
2. Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay has almost zero experience in Texas and none at TPC San Antonio. It feels like a middling year for Patrick, but his worst finish in 6 starts is T33 and he has 2 T5 finishes. TPC SA requires a balanced skillset and Cantlay is arguably the most balanced golfer we have on TOUR.
3. Jordan Spieth: The best thing for Masters lead-in hype would be a Jordan win. While great, that’s not enough for us. Spieth has been up and down this year, and shockingly its the short-game that’s been lacking. Of any player, I trust Spieth to find his hands ahead of Augusta. A winner here, 10th last year, great on these types of tracks that demand old-man game.
4. Harry Hall: Harry took a big leap late last year and through the beginning of the season. A west coast guy, the Florida swing wasn’t great for him. But TPC SA is the perfect fit for Harry. He hasn’t popped here yet, but Harry is now a much-improved version of himself and loves an old-man game course like this… 2 top 10s in Hawaii, elite history at TPC Summerlin, and has popped in Texas with a 3rd at Colonial.
5. Matt Wallace: I love being trapped by Matt Wallace. One week from his 35th birthday, he came to 2025 off a 2024 Summer/Fall stretch that was one of his best stretches as a pro… then the putter abandoned him. Ball speeds are back up, the short wedges are still great, and the short game is elite. If he can feel good on these Texas greens, I think he has legitimate potential to win the whole thing (hence my 90/1 outright on him).
6. Ryan Gerard: I hope Ryan didn’t peak too early with his 10th in Houston. A handsy player with the short-game rounding into form, great with short wedges, played well at Sawgrass. He can ball-strike his way to a win here and truly ascend to the 3rd tier of PGA TOUR pros.
7. Chris Kirk: This has not been Chris Kirk’s year. Similar to Wallace, the putter fell off badly for a bit. If that rights itself. the irons are all still there. He may be $1,000 too cheap on DK given the 2023-onwards skillset of Kirk’s
8. Jeremy Paul: Jake Paul’s German counterpart. I’ve had eyes for Jeremy all year since his climb to the PGAT. He can hit it out real good and the wedge play under 100 yards is near-elite. Paul should be well fit for Texas tracks. 3 top 25s in the last 5 starts in admittedly poor fields.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
I will have outrights, top 5s and top 10s on Harry Hall and Matt Wallace.

My odds shown below via the datagolf.com Custom Model tool

Favorite Play:
Harry Hall ($7.7k), Matt Wallace ($7.1k)
Star Anchor:
Ludvig ($10.8k), Spieth ($9.7k), Conners ($10.1k),
Gut Check:
Cantlay ($10.2k)
Favorite Sub-$6,000:
Jeremy Paul ($6.7k) – I see a big drop-off as you go from the low $7ks to the $6ks. The safer plays all exist in those bottom $7ks.

One & Done: Spieth (I’m too big a coward to use Hall or Wallace)

Very overweight

1. Aberg, Ludvig ($10.8k)
2. Cantlay, Patrick ($10.2k)
3. Conners, Corey ($10.1k)
4. Spieth, Jordan ($9.7k)
5. Hall, Harry ($7.7k)
6. Gerard, Ryan ($7.6k)
7. Kirk, Chris ($7.4k
8. Wallace, Matt ($7.1k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Bradley, Keegan ($9.5k)
2. McNealy, Maverick ($8.1k)
3. Woodland, Gary ($7.8k)
4. Hoey, Rico ($7.6k)
5. Hoge, Tom ($7.4k)
6. Harman, Brian ($7.5k)
7. Meissner, Mac ($7.1k)
8. Olesen, Thorbjorn ($7.2k)

Under $7.0k

1. Fishburn, Patrick ($6.9k)
2. Paul, Jeremy ($6.7k)
3. Walker, Danny ($6.5k)

FOMO

1. Berger, Daniel ($9.2k)
2. Hoffman, Charley ($7.4k)
3. Putnam, Andrew ($7.2k)
4. Simpson, Webb ($6.6k)
5. Ramey, Chad ($6.4k)

As always, GL GL GL.