adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust

Masters Tune-Up season starts this week as the TOUR heads to Texas. The Houston Open features both Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. This is the first time I can remember a betting board that starts with 2 guys under 6/1 and then jumps all the way to the 30 range. Big-time imposter syndrome for someone like Aaron Rai if the featured group is Scottie, Rory… Aaron. Gross!

Plus4 Recap:

Viktor Hovland gets in done at the Valspar. Kickoff odds at 80/1 for a Ryder Cupper under 30 should’ve been the sign; many of the golf models out there favor guys who have played lots of golf recently, but Viktor has shown the propensity to pop up out of the blue without form. Follow the talent and you usually will find the money. I was able to leverage a ‘winner without’ market to get Viktor at 60/1, easily my highest odds winner of the year so far!

I sat in 1st place of the big $5 for so much of the weekend, before Lowry faded, Castillo faded, and JT charged. My guys must’ve lost about 5 strokes putting on the weekend, while the other high-owned guys were dialed on the greens. It’s the nature of the game, but always deflating when you go from 5-figure winnings to coming out even ever over a 6-hour stretch. Shout out to multiple 4heads, including Jack Green, out there who took our plays and profited from them!

Plus4: Memorial Park Golf Course

• Wide open spaces: Houston is the quintessential ‘spray it’ course off the tee. The rough is never an issue for players, and the course is not tree-lined to a degree where players need to chip out if they miss the average-width fairways here. With nearly all of the greens here elevated, the approaches reminder of a very junior version of Augusta National: short rough, long approaches, elevated greens. For those that strike the ball well at Augusta, I see no reason why that cannot translate here (see Tony Finau below).
• Very tight around-the-green lies: Around-the-green play at Memorial Park is extremely important for success: difficulty of fairway lies around the greens are in the top percentile of all courses, meaning the ability to lean on your short greens within these tight lies is critical. This is reminiscent of so many of those ‘wide open spaces’ courses that are very fun to watch. Scottie, Ben Griffin, Tony Finau, Jason Day and Danny Walker are guys who rate out as great players from these types of lies.

Plus4: Memorial Park Golf Course corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Sea Island (Seaside) – lean on 150+ approaches
2. Sedgefield – tight lie city
3. Corales
4. Detroit
5. TPC Twin Cities – distance is best
6. VidantaWord – spray it
7. El Camaleon
8. Spyglass Hill
9. TPC Summerlin
10. Kingsbarns
11. Pinehurst
12. Le Golf National

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at Memorial Park Golf Course

Ranked by projected skill

1. Scottie: It is required to put Scottie as a ‘Player to Watch’ when in Texas. Long approaches, tight lies around-the-green, and Texas greens. All of this fits Scottie and I’m not sure how he lost last year. Wins at East Lake, Scottsdale and Le Golf National, 2nds here and Olympia Fields, and a 3rd in Mayakoba (El Camaleon) way back in time are the course fits.
2. Rory: Rory may be able to simply over-power this course. He rates slightly worse than Scottie, but still a positive when looking across the corollary courses. I can see a world where the putter goes flat, but that shouldn’t cause him to move outside the top 10 on the leaderboard given his current form.
3. Tony Finau: Finau is a former winner here and at VidantaWorld, Detroit, and Twin Cities. The approach mold is perfect for Tony and the around-the-green play fits perfectly as well. This is the Tony-style course and a perfect tune-up for him leading into Augusta, where he’s played well over the years. Can Tony putt? That will be the determinant.
4. Mav McNealy: Mav won at Sea Island late last year and has been great at the corollary courses in the last few years. A bad Florida swing (Florida is always weird for west coast guys) has his number and DK price way more approachable. Long-irons, spray it, tight lie greensides… it will be great for Mav if the wind flares up.
5. Sahith Theegala: I was on Theegala so much early in the year, backed off for a bit, and am now returning to Sahith. The ARG play should fit Theegala perfectly, and a wild miss with driver shouldn’t kill him. Good at East Lake, Scottsdale, Sea Island, and Twin Cities.
6. Max Greyserman: Max is best when you can spray. Those Florida courses do not fit him, and we’re back in a spot that does. 7th here last year in what was an early coming-out with runner-ups at Sedgefield and Twin Cities.
7. Eric Cole: This is not where you would expect Eric Cole to thrive, but I will trust the numbers. The ARG and putting splits look great here, he’s been at Vidanta, Sedgefield and Detroit, and comes in with elevated ball-speed numbers. Last 2 times out, the speed numbers were 174mph on average, above TOUR average… the 6 weeks to start the year were closer to 169mph.
8. Rasmus Hojgaard: I could repeat the Greyserman snippet here. Let ‘Mus Spray. This course gives extreme Eastern European course vibes, where the financing was there for crazy elevated greens, but in reality, most of the round is just spraying driver through a (Memorial) park.
9. Justin Lower: The numbers say Lower. He doesn’t bomb it, but the ARG and putting splits should be able to keep Justin afloat. He’s been through a bad stretch, so maybe i’m just calling my shot on this one.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
Nothing yet.

Scottie is so expensive this week, that I can see scenarios where Scottie wins the golf tournament, but a non-Scottie lineup wins DFS contests. The $1k savings with Rory can go a long way at the bottom of the salary ranges. I see a steep drop-off once you get below $7k.
Favorite Play:
Finau, Cole
Star Anchor:
Scottie, Rory, obviously
Gut Check:
Cole, Greyserman
Favorite Sub-$6,000:
Lower

One & Done: Finau

Very overweight

1. McIlroy, Rory ($11.7k)
2. Finau, Tony ($9.2k)
3. Theegala, Sahith ($8k)
4. Greyserman, Max ($8.1k)
5. Cole, Eric ($7k)
6. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($7.3k)
7. Lower, Justin ($6.9k)

Mid-range fillers

Tier 2

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($12.7k)
2. Thompson, Davis ($9.4k)
3. McNealy, Maverick ($8.3k)
4. Griffin, Ben ($7.9k)
5. English, Harris ($7.8k)
6. Hall, Harry ($7.5k)
7. Schmid, Matti ($7k)

Tier 3

1. Day, Jason ($9k)
2. Smalley, Alex ($8.2k)
3. Moore, Taylor ($7.9k)
4. Highsmith, Joe ($7.8k)
5. Hisatsune, Ryo ($7.2k)

Under $7.0k

EDIT: I smoothed my ownership between the 6 guys below. Mr. Quaalude Cummins is the better golfer when ranked compared to the guys below, and I wanted to share ownership between these guys. ~17% exposure to each with Lower ~30%.

1. Walker, Danny ($6.6k)
2. Cummins, Quade ($6.7k)
3. Tosti, Alejandro ($6.7k)
4. Phillips, Chandler ($6.5k)
5. Goodwin, Noah ($6.4k)
6. EDIT: Chuck Hoffman ($6.9k)

As always, GL GL GL.