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Around some gators and across the coast, we move to St. Pete for the Valspar. Big field, big boy course, and big winds characterize this “journeyman” week. This post will be thin, as explained below.

Plus4 Recap:

It went off the rails at THE PLAYERS on Friday. The course played almost exactly to what TPC San Antonio would produce, not TPC Sawgrass – difficult to comp a course when the course plays like two different beasts.

Plus4: Innisbrook

• Wind, wind, wind: This week is slated to be all about the wind. I’ve put a screenshot below of what the splits look to be – I’ve never seen PROJECTIONS of such a wave split. Innisbrook is difficult OTT and very reliant ARG, and these winds may just multiply that. My numbers always show that it’s more difficult to comp a difficult course than it is an easy one… but we will do our best
• OTT difficulty: Like Sawgrass was, Innisbrook’s OTT difficulty is intense, with OTT difficulty ranking 5th of all courses in the DG database. This course, all around, poses challenge to TOUR pros, with the winning score typically floating right at -10. The course is not long, but playing from the fairway is critical. There are a number of hanging trees, combined with uphill approaches, that pose significant challenges for those off-line and/or playing from way back in the fairway.
• 175+: Of courses in the PGA TOUR rota, Innisbrook is right at the top of courses that demand accuracy from the 175+ approach buckets. Last year, over 50% of approaches came from these ranges.

Plus4: Innisbrook corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Detroit
2. TPC Twin Cities
3. Hamilton Golf & Country Club (Canada)
4. Ridgewood
5. The Old White TPC (West Va.)
6. PGA National
7. Keene Trace
8. Trump Doral
9. Munich Eichenried
10. Torrey Pines

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at Innisbrook

Ranked by projected skill

Mother Nature: There’s an issue here – nearly everybody I project to play well is in the wrong wave. They will be low-owned on DraftKings and playing from behind if the weatherman is right. For this reason, I’m breaking up my leans…

Early/Late

1. Tommy Fleetwood: Tommyboy is in the good wave (early Thursday, late Friday) and everything lines up for him. Great on tough tracks, windy tracks and coming off a stretch of 5th (Torrey), 11th and 14th in elevated events.
2. Adam Scott: Scott has not played at Innisbrook in quite awhile, but it really fits his old-man game. The 182mph ball speed is well up in the top quartile, the approach buckets fit, and the short game should be able to keep Adam up top.
3. Victor Perez: Perez was good in Palm Beach Gardens and seems to be settling into a good swing of golf. His short game STINKS, but the driver and irons should keep him afloat.

Late/Early

1. Shane Lowry: Windy conditions in Florida should favor Shane. If both waves get wrecked, it may well be Shane who comes out of the wind standing tallest.
2. Zalatoris: Innisbrook is not the longest, but requires OTT gains. The new Willy Z should have a keen eye for this place. It’s a debut here for Willy, but he has a 2nd at Torrey and a5th at Muirfield, as well as strong performances at many difficult tracks.
3. Sam Ryder: In neutral winds, I project Ryder should be 100/1. DraftKings lists him at 200/1. The driver has not been amazing, but Sam is rounding into form. Hasn’t performed at the corollary courses well this year, but historically he can thrive in a place like this.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
Nothing yet. I will be waiting until the weekend to do anything in this realm.

My strategy this week is to play wave-specific lineups. I am going to dump the guys I like, split by wave. Wave splits are a GREAT way to build and going against the projected “good” wave is always smart. Weather is never as predictable as we make it.
Favorite Play:
Adam Scott (early)
Star Anchor:
Fleetwood (early), Lowry (late), Zalatoris (late)
Gut Check:
Perez (early), Ryder (late)
Favorite Sub-$6,000:
Perez (early), N/A (late)

One & Done: Fleetwood

Very overweight

1. Fleetwood, Tommy ($10.3k)
2. Lowry, Shane ($9.4k)
3. Zalatoris, Will ($9.3k)
4. Scott, Adam ($8.3k)
5. Theegala, Sahith ($7.8k)
6. Bridgeman, Jacob ($7.4k)
7. McGreevy, Max ($7.2k)
8. Ryder, Sam ($7.1k)
9. Perez, Victor ($6.8k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Schauffele, Xander ($10.5k)
2. Kim, Tom ($9.2k)
3. Moore, Taylor ($8.6k)
4. Hovland, Viktor ($8.4k)
5. Griffin, Ben ($7.9k)
6. Hadwin, Adam ($7.2k)
7. Svensson, Jesper ($7.1k)
8. Hoey, Rico ($7k)

Under $7.0k

1. Schmid, Matti ($6.8k)
2. Castillo, Ricky ($6.6k)
3. Griffin, Lanto ($6.5k)
4. Shipley, Neal ($6.5k)
5. Hoshino, Rikuya ($6.3k)
6. Valimaki, Sami ($6.3k)

As always, GL GL GL.