adventure americanexpress augusta augustanational betting california daily fantasy dfs draftkings farmers gambling golf golf betting golfing lifestyle masters news pga pga tour scheffler scottie-scheffler sonyopen sports TGL themasters thesentry tiger-woods torrey torrey pines tour travel wanderlust

Welcome to THE PLAYERS Championship Week. A full 155+ players, comprehensive coverage both before and during the tournament, and the MOST FUN course we have on the PGA TOUR.

Plus4 RECAP:

We did not “JUST PRINT MORE MONEY”, but we were CLOSE! This is a game of ebbs and flows, and we are ready to flow. Henley was in the model, but we did not capture enough of spots 4-10 to make big money.

New changes to the Plus4 MODEL:

Similar commentary can also be found on X at x.com/plus4blog

Starting this week: To reduce “old noise”, a logarithmic decay factor based on when a player has last played the corollary course is now in play. This will boost weight into player play at corollary courses already played this year (like Bay Hill for those who played it last week), will not boost nor decay course history at courses last played last year (like TPC Deere Run), and progressively apply a decay factor to course history at courses last played 2 seasons ago or further (like St. Andrews).

Note that this decay factor is determined by the individual player’s last time playing at the course, not the course hosting an event itself.

More than anything, it will dilute excessively great course history that many Euros-turned-PGAers have at Euro corollary courses – guys like Fleetwood, Lowry, and Bezuidenhout. Additionally, course history for old guys will be decayed for older results and no longer be evenly applied. Adam Scott should not be rewarded the same for dominating Colonial 10 years ago vs. Harry Hall doing well last year.

Fleetwood’s EURO runs are a great example. Under our prior calculations at TPC Sawgrass, we were spotting Tommy almost .3 strokes per round due to his performance at courses he last played before 2019. Places like Genzon, Royal County Down, and Albatross Resort. Under new scoring, Fleetwood rates well, but we now apply a decay factor to those old results, bringing it down to about .12 strokes per round from those courses. To counterbalance this, more weight is applied to Tommy’s play at places like Bay Hill, Riviera, Wentworth and the like.

Looking at Albatross, for example, Tommy finished 4th, 15th in ’14 and ’16, respectively. Nicolai Hojgaard has a 3rd in ’23 and top 20 in ’21. These should not be, and now are not, valued the same. Courses change, players change, and equipments change… now our model can change with it.

Plus4: TPC Sawgrass

• Toyota Prius: Not a sponsored ad here. Jack Nicklaus compared TPC Sawgrass to landing balls on the hood of a car. For difficulty of approach within 150 yards nowhere is more difficult than TPC Sawgrass… perfecting short irons and wedges is what gets it done here. TPC Sawgrass has the most approaches from 50-150 yards of any course the great players play.
• OTT difficulty: Per datagolf, Sawgrass OTT difficulty ranks in the last 4 years (out of ~41) go… 4th, 4th, 1st, 4th. More pronounced since the change to March, driving the ball is difficult here. You need to be in the right spot, with the right angle, in the fairway – or go into attack mode for the shorter holes and separate that way. Water will be left, bunkers and OB will be right, and you need to split it. Additionally, get-able par 5s, and playing a drivable par 4 have put more emphasis on the big stick. It’s not a long course, but driver typically needs to be a weapon, not an inhibitor.
• ARG correlations: Augusta National, St. Andrews Links, Pinehurst, TPC Sawgrass. These are courses where showmanship around the green is damn near required – the golfing skate parks. Everything at Sawgrass is shaved, a bunker, or water – you best be able to spin your 60 degree with some ARG creativity.

Plus4: TPC Sawgrass corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Pete Dye Stadium Course – Pete Dye
2. PGA National – Hood of car golf
3. Bay Hill – Do not miss fairways
4. Tahoe Mountain – Hard OTT and pitching wedges
5. Keene Trace
6. St. Andrews – Handsy, handsy players
7. TPC Deere Run – Pete Dye
8. TPC Boston
9. El Cardonal at Diamante
10. Corales

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at THE PLAYERS

Ranked by projected skill

1. Scottie: He’s going for 3 in a row here. Last week I said the speed numbers are down – they were slightly up last week, but not all the way back. At Bay Hill, he simply couldn’t putt. I will never go against Scottie at Sawgrass… he is a wizard at everything you need here.
2. Ludvig Aberg: A new Swedish Hammer. I believe the rain early this week plus a lack of wind will put more emphasis on distance. Scores on Thursday should be low if the forecast holds; I would not be shocked by a 62 or better from the field. Remember when Ludvig went -9 on Day 1 of the Farmers? Then proceeded to puke all over the course, come back 3 weeks later, and win there? I think Ludvig will tear this course up with driver, make an eagle a day, and win at -24.
3. Patrick Cantlay: Similar to a guy down below, the history here is not stellar. I think a softer course will fit him well. Pat has not tied the pieces together this year, and somehow DK still put him at the $10K threshold. Not great from 50-100, but the short game is always good, he’ll make an outsized share of 20 footers, and the irons were good in Orlando.
4. Min Woo Lee: He was once again TERRIBLE at Bay Hill – good thing that’s the only corollary course he’s not good at. Min Woo is one of the greatest showmen we have, he will use driver as a weapon, he will call in Doctor Chipinski, and hopefully we can get one solid week of approach between 100 and 150 yards.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick: I still don’t believe Fitz has the firepower to win, especially if the event plays easy. The speed stayed up last week, while the irons fell off… hope we can lean on iron play, short game and keeping momentum with the putter from last week. Winner at Valderrama, Harbour Town, and 5th here last year.
6. Jordan Spieth: I don’t say this lightly – you may never see Spieth’s name here again. I NEVER tout Spieth, but the numbers are there. Driving the crap out of the ball, corollary course fits, and on DraftKings at an $8.8k price that most people will not pay. The form here is terrible, but the last half-decade were in a dearth of total driving that the golden boy seems to have surfaced from… a wizard from under 100 yards and a magician ARG.
7. Ben Griffin: This is the type of course for Ben Griffin – he has the Webb and Harman type game, and just needs the putter to follow. He could be better from 50-100 yards, but I trust him to get to the longer holes well above field average. My only issue with Griffin: he refuses to take time off. This is week #10 in a row, every week since the Sony Open… why are we playing at Torrey Pines (Farmers)? Mexico? Elevated events are privileges, some of these others are not and do not fit his game. Let me consult you Ben!
8. Max Greyserman: Max will attack this course with driver, not the traditional Spieth and BG route. His game has ascended, and I think he’s the real deal. 3 straight T25s playing different brands of course.
9. Doug Ghim: Douggie will be popular. He will take the conventional routes and lean on the skills of driving accuracy and 150 yards and in – that should be enough.
10. Kevin Yu: Short track record shows a love of Pete Dye courses. I think he learned to putt this winter, and these greens should help. Go make some eagles YUUUUU.
11. Ryan Gerard: A fellow UNC guy, he’s discount Ben Griffin (they were teammates and Ryan would be very insulted if he saw this). Copy and paste.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
Nothing yet. DataGolf gives massive bumps to a number of shorter players, which skews the board for me a lot. Guys that show huge value from my numbers are Fitz, Henley, Chris Kirk and Rai… all high-floor guys but I’ll save my money. Follow on X for exotics I get into and player matchups.

DK reintroduced the $5k range this week, and there are so many guys in it. Michael Kim would get ownership if he were $1.5k more expensive, but DK sucks at pricing some of these. With the $5k range, you can build so many different ways. I’ll try all kinds of builds, but my stands will be between $5.7k and $8k, where I have very few guys who will hit a ton of my lineups.
Favorite Play:
Ludvig ($10.2k)
Star Anchor:
Scottie ($12.8k), Ludvig, Cantlay ($10k)
Gut Check:
Fitz ($7.5k), Spieth ($8.8k), Griffin ($6.7k)
Favorite Sub-$6,000:
Yu, Kevin ($5.7k), Ghim, Doug ($5.6k)

One & Done: Ludvig.

Ludvig’s career arc is astounding and could get steeper this week. A Ryder Cupper before even playing a major, he showed up to beat Scottie and Brooks 9 & 7 on Day 2. Then wins twice in the Fall, makes a splash in the Spring with multiple T5s and debuts as a runner-up at Augusta in April. Then add the weekend overnight lead at the US Open, and another in Scotland, then a runner-up to Keegan in Colorado in 2024,

Next, unlike any other 25 year-old I know to withhold a major inhibitor to his success, he announces he played everything from May onwards with a torn meniscus – a stretch where his driving distance dropped a good 5-7 yards, but his play barely missed a beat.

He comes to this year, races out to a T5 in Hawaii, goes to Torrey the first time and, while leading on the weekend, gets a nasty flu that ruins the next 7 rounds of his year. Recovers and immediately re-acclimates by winning the Genesis.

It’s a rare class of player who shows their ability this quickly on the largest stage, and nearly all of the great ones win THE PLAYERS. It’s a realistic world where in 6 months, Scottie is #1, Aberg is a clear #2, and the world falls in line after that.

Very overweight

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($12.8k)
2. Aberg, Ludvig ($10.2k)
3. Cantlay, Patrick ($10k)
4. Henley, Russell ($9.5k)
5. Straka, Sepp ($8.6k)
6. Kim, Si Woo ($8.2k)
7. Lee, Min Woo ($8k)
8. Fitzpatrick, Matt ($7.5k)
9. Greyserman, Max ($7.3k)
10. Griffin, Ben ($6.7k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Spieth, Jordan ($8.8k)
2. Lowry, Shane ($9.1k)
3. Bezuidenhout, Christiaan ($7.1k)

Under $6.0k

1. Yu, Kevin ($5.7k)
2. Ghim, Doug ($5.6k)
3. Gerard, Ryan ($5.5k)
4. Kim, Chan ($5k)
5. Kirk, Chris ($5.6k
6. Smalley, Alex ($5.4k)
7. Bridgeman, Jacob ($5.3k)
8. Young, Carson ($5k)

FOMO

1. Schmid, Matti ($5.3k)

(Special section) Guys I can’t blame you for playing

1. Michael Kim ($5.9k) – Kim has been a top 20 player worldwide for 5 weeks – it’s not debatable. Make him $7.4k and I think he’d still get a lot of play. Now we have to make serious choices on a 15%+ owned sub-$6k player. I will go the game theory route and hope Kim’s run ends here.
2. Aaron Rai ($7.1k) – I see a dip in ball speed for a guy who already didn’t have much of it. If he plods his way around to -18 and gets a top 5, I will have to suffer. I am scarred from my sweats at TPC Sawgrass over recent years due to Aaron Rai. Aaron Rai made a triple bogey at 17 in Round 4 two years ago, costing me 5 figures… for that alone, I’m out.
3. Fleetwood – The corollary courses are a fit, but I am making stands on Aberg (who has the win equity) and Cantlay (half the ownership).
4. Berger – Recent form is great, but we are now at a really big-boy event. I’ll take him at $10,3 at the Colonial, not at a price near that in a stacked field on a course that should demand a hot putter.

As always, GL GL GL.