2025 PGA TOUR: Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview, Player Insights, Picks, One & Done, ALL OF IT!

I deem this week “just print more money” week. After an expectedly wacky Cognizant Classic, the TOUR visits Arnie’s place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It’s been a slow quarter for Plus4, but we will right the ship – this is not a science, it as an art.

A number of model changes were passed:

Change of course history inputs influencing course correlation
To factor course history into your overall adjustment for the week, you need to have played in at least 1 of the last 5 events at the corollary course.
- For example, Rory’s 26th at the 2016 Fry’s Open at Silverado will not count against him. Did you know PGA Tour players have historically been encouraged to play at least 1 new event each year they didn’t play in the last 3 seasons? Yeah, Rory was in Napa for the wine in 2016, and that explains him losing 4 strokes putting through a crippling pinot hangover.
Redesign of recent event model
Expansion of ball speed tracking

With that, let’s get to Bay Hill.

Plus4: Bay Hill Club & Lodge course notes

Punishing mistakes: Bay Hill is perennially in the top 5 most difficult courses for both approach and off-the-tee play. This is a major championship venue, and requires major championship caliber play. You cannot hide and you will need to feet. Balance and confidence in all areas of your game is key.
Rouging rough: The rough around API is always some of the most brutal on TOUR. This rough, very firm conditions, and water spanning many greens puts a major premium for me on total driving. To hold these greens, you must be split in the fairway (the Henley, Connors mold) or have bombed into a spot where you can lob a wedge from the deep rough well into the air and softly onto these surfaces. I have attempted to omit any player from my model this week that has been losing strokes off-the-tee as of late.
A new crop: Oddly enough, not a single corollary course in our model has been played this year in the PGA Tour rota. This is not a track that favors any of the west coast courses – this leads me to look for guys who have been over-performing my projections out West. Bay Hill can be a coming out party for many players looking to make a run into the Players, Augusta and summer season.

Plus4: Bay Hill Club & Lodge corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

Emirates (25 COR score)
TPC San Antonio
East Lake
Crans-Sur-Sierre
Accordia Golf Narashino
TPC Sawgrass
TPC Boston
Silverado
Hong Kong (where LIV is playing this week!)
St. Andrews Links, Pinehurst, the Ocean Course, and Southern Hills

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Ranked by projected skill

A note on Scottie: The ball speeds in his last 3 events are 172, 176 and 174. The 3 events prior to that were 177, 180, and 181. I’m not saying to fade Scottie, but the lower speeds do worry me. The course is Scottie’s jam, and we could never full-fade Scottie, but my reservations are on display here.

Rory: The course fits Rory to a tee – Bermuda greens, leaning on a long driver, play safe on approach and make 20 footers. Bay Hill, Emirates (in November this year), Ocean Course, TPC Boston, East Lake, Sawgrass are all corollary places where Rory has wins. 18 courses flow into the model for Rory this week. He has a top 4 at 17 of them, and the lone outlier is an 8th at the ’22 PGA Championship at Southern Hills in the heart of Rory’s political LIV battles.
Justin Thomas: Come on JT, quit letting us down. JT did not drive the ball out west like I’d hoped. I believe he will make his way east for his best summer of the last half-decade. There may not be a major, but JT will be ready to start winning freaking golf tournament.
Keegan Bradley: I have not been on Keegan until this week. The ball-striking has been phenomenal. The putting has not been. The course fits Keegan has a major-caliber player, and the prices are down on KB. 3 top-11s here in the last 4 years, a win in Japan.
Matt Fitzpatrick: Fitzy has not been a good golfer recently. He can’t chip and he can’t putt right now – a change to Bermuda should be what Fitzy needs. The ball speed numbers are not the 2023 spikes we saw, but they are bubbling back to a level I like.
Si Woo Kim: Si Woo has dominated the tee boxes and fairways here, and truly sucked on the API greens. Looking at the corollary courses, that’s destined to flip. Strong driver of the ball, and willing to grind if his mind can stay in it for the complete 4 days.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
I see value on JT, Si Woo and Bezuidenhout. No money has left my account yet.

Favorite Play:
Justin Thomas ($9.4k)
Star Anchor:
Rory McIlroy ($10.8k), Ludvig Aberg ($9.9k)
Gut Check:
Keegan Bradley ($8.4k), Aaron Rai ($7.3k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Bezuidenhoot ($6.5k)

One & Done: Rory – This is a massive purse. Xander is coming off of injury, and Scottie may not be right. You will not get Rory in this winnable of a field, at this purse, with those guys not chomping at him.

Very overweight

My builds this week start with primarily 2 guys above $9.4k, and that typically puts me down into the lower $7ks to finish off my builds. I have more Rai, Denny and Bez than I’d desired, but that’s the price you pay when you want lots of Rory, Aberg, and JT without full-fading Scottie.

McIlroy, Rory ($10.8k)
Aberg, Ludvig ($9.9k)
Thomas, Justin ($9.4k)
Bradley, Keegan ($8.4k)
Fitzpatrick, Matt ($7.7k)
Kim, Si Woo ($7.4k)
Rai, Aaron ($7.3k)
McCarthy, Denny ($7.3k)
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan ($6.5k)

Mid-range fillers

Scheffler, Scottie ($12k)
Henley, Russell ($8.8k)
Hovland, Viktor ($8.3k)
Conners, Corey ($7.8k)
Bhatia, Akshay ($7.8k)
Scott, Adam ($7.5k)
Thompson, Davis ($7.2k)
Greyserman, Max ($7.1k)

Under $7.0k

Harman, Brian ($6.8k)
Potgieter, Aldrich ($6.5k)
Salinda, Isaiah ($6.4k)
Highsmith, Joe ($6.2k)

FOMO

Berger, Daniel ($8.5k)
Theegala, Sahith ($7.4k)

As always, GL GL GL.

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