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The TOUR is off the Florida. Brian Campbell took home Mexico with ball speeds you expect to see at your local scramble – he was on the board at Torrey, but was well off of it this week given the low speeds. Akshay picked up a sickness mid-way through the event in one of the sickest PGA TOUR stretches I can remember! Let’s get to the heat and reset as we push towards Augusta.

This week will feature a trimmed down article as 1) this event has been historically hard to cap and 2) I traverse the western skies. I rarely hold back in a week, but I’ll only be in financially at about 60% my normal capacity. Take that for what it is.

Plus4: PGA National (Champion) course notes

• Water, everywhere: PGA National has, easily, the most holes of any course that can be completely disrupted by water. It’s hard to cap this well, but I personally look for guys with stronger tee-to-green games. It’s not the longest course, but most of my field this week is a plus with the driver – there are plodding courses, but I see this as one that’s best attacked from short angles created with the big stick. Lowry, Straka, Eckroat are not traditional plodders, but rather guys who can string accuracy and league-average distance together.
• Bad shot avoidance: DataGolf has a nice feature around great shots and poor shots, defined by the total numbers of shots that either gain or lose 1 stroke against the field. Generally, this is a test of variance… most courses, we want high variance as it leads to DFS scoring and upside. Here, that variance can lead to water balls and turning in an 80. Guys like Russell Henley are very low variance, while a guy like Cam Young is the highest of variance. This is why at neutral projections, I’d typically take Cam Young – but this week provides such a curveball that we most second-guess this.
• Bermuda: Do not forget that the change in coasts comes with a change in greens. While out West, a number of guys were featured here week-over-week. Consider this a mini-reset as the Floridians get to shine. Lowry, McCarthy, Greyserman, Cam Young, Ryder and Clanton are guys on our list who make their home in Florida.

Plus4: PGA National (Champion) corollary courses

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Corales
2. TPC Louisiana
3. TPC Deere Run
4. Innisbrook
5. Muirfield Village
6. Wentworth
7. TPC Sawgrass
8. Waialae
9. East Lake
10. Royal Troon

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the Cognizant

Ranked by projected skill

1. Byeong Hun An: We get Benny back on the East coast. The numbers have not been great for Ben, but I’m calling my shot here that he’s one who will benefit from the change of place. He won in Korea last Fall, and for all effective purposes, he left his irons over there so far.
2. Denny McCarthy: By Denny’s standards, he’s hitting the piss out of ball. This is his best surface and the confidence + ball-striking should follow Denny to Florida. He should be more popular this week.
3. Luke Clanton: Florida boy. Deere Run is corollary, and Luke finished runner-up as still an amateur last year. He needs to make the cut this week to get his TOUR card – I project that by Friday afternoon, he’ll be fighting to be in the final Saturday pairing.
4. Antoine Rozner: My brain tells me that Frenchmen love water-laden courses. Le Golf National has a ton of water, and Rozner has thrived on those types of tracks. 4th in Qatar earlier this month, couldn’t chip and putt last week.
5. Thriston Lawrence: The sample is small, but these greens should fit Thriston. His game has faltered for the last 6-months, but he was on a great trajectory. The coast change should help him re-find form… 4th at Royal Troon last year, our pool features TL (4th), Lowry (6th), Henley (5th), and Ben An (13th) from that event.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
I see value in a few Rozner, Lowry, Ben An, and Lawrence outrights. I will hit some Top 5, 10 and 20 on the longer oddsholders.

Favorite Play:
Clanton ($7.7k) – next year, he might be $10.5k
Star Anchor:
Lowry ($10.5k), Straka ($9.4k)
Gut Check:
McCarthy ($9.3k), Ben Griffin ($8.5k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Rozner ($6.8k), Lawrence ($6.5k)

One & Done: Ben An

Overweight

1. Henley, Russell ($10.7k)
2. Lowry, Shane ($10.5k)
3. Straka, Sepp ($9.4k)
4. McCarthy, Denny ($9.3k)
5. An, Byeong Hun ($9k)
6. Young, Cameron ($8.8k)
7. Griffin, Ben ($8.5k)
8. Clanton, Luke ($7.7k)
9. Woodland, Gary ($7.5k)
10. Norgaard, Niklas ($7.3k)
11. Rozner, Antoine ($6.8k)
12. Lawrence, Thriston ($6.5k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Greyserman, Max ($8.7k)
2. Novak, Andrew ($8k)
3. Ryder, Sam ($7.1k)

Under $7.0k

1. Meissner, Mac ($6.9k)
2. Manassero, Matteo ($6.8k)
3. Gotterup, Chris ($6.6k)
4. Martin, Ben ($6.7k)
5. Wu, Dylan ($6.2k)
6. Hoshino, Rikuya ($6.3k)

FOMO

1. Schenk, Adam ($7k)
2. Thorbjornsen, Michael ($6.9k)

As always, GL GL GL.