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The US western swing is over! The PGA TOUR heads down to Mexico for a pit stop before making its way east to Florida. Our 2nd trip to Torrey Pines last weekend was fruitful – the player pool thrived. Ludvig, Finau. “Free Square” Scottie. Bhatia. Michael Kim high up the board, Knapp and Dunlap frisky. The strategy was there, the player pool was good, but my trim of the 25 guys down to the 8 players in the “Players to Watch” was not good, and continues to struggle in comparison to the larger pool of players provided. There is a level of gut check on players that the rest of the world uses, and occasionally the numbers can blind us from just simply watching guys play good golf and then betting on those same guys to keep doing it – it’s the “that boy nice” conundrum, and data nerds like us will always struggle with that balance.

Regardless, the week was a success and many subscribers had great weeks. I myself was a few putts away from the big bucks, with a 46th finish in the 47,000 entry big $20. Even my mother had big lineups cashing.

With that, we are on to Mexico. The Mexico Open returns to VidantaWorld for the 4th time, giving us a large enough sample to do some damage in corollary course identification. I love this tournament as the course is generally easy to model against and requires “high-skill” players, eliminating many players who are simply not playing good golf or can get lucky any given week. It may not seem intuitive, but this contrast exists among courses: some, like Torrey Pines, require great ball-striking and thus it is easy to model the “less variant” skills against the course while others, like Waialae, show the opposite.

Plus4: VidantaWorld course notes

• Driving distance: Among all courses on TOUR, Vidanta is at the very top of courses that reward driving distance. This course is long and played at sea-level without great elevation. Not only does it require driver most holes, those drivers will put longer hitters in spots to hit 8-irons while shorter players hit 5-irons; that could make all the difference, especially when missing fairways doesn’t significantly hamper driving distance or the ability to attack pins. The par 3s are also long, so shorter players cannot hide and gain on shorter par 3s. Step up, mash, go find it.
• Paspalum: Little-known paspalum is the star of these greens. A blotchy grasstype that plays similar to poa annua but with the plushness of bermuda. It is an island-style grass and tends to favor guys who play well in South America, Mexico and coastal courses at or near the equator. In looking at guys coming from the Korn Ferry Tour, we paid special consideration to performances in the Bahamas at the Abaco and Exuma Classics, and in Panama.
• Easy ARG: Vidanta is statistically the easiest place to chip on Tour. I didn’t even look at ARG as it should not factor in the model. The greens are soft enough to hold stuff, the rough is lush enough to eliminate any cute, tight lies that require soft hands, and the rough is not long, leading ball to just sit right on top of the rough in a very inviting way to every golfer. This also leads to very low scores and very passive par 5s.
• Ball-striking skill: With easy ARG, a need for long-irons, and a benefit for driving distance factor, young and inexperienced players can thrive here off of pure skill. You do not need to plot, greens are generally easy to read, and mashers are invited to mash.

Plus4: VidantaWorld corollary course deep-dive

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Congaree

COR score: 17

Congaree was played a few times in COVID times, and always favored length off of the tee. A long course that demanded long-irons and had easy ARG (if not in the crazy-faced bunkers) gives it a strong correlation.

2. Silverado

COR score: 10

Silverado rewards distance off of the tee and demands low-scoring with scorable par 5s specifically.

3. TPC Craig Ranch

COR score: 9

TPC Craig Ranch is not a serious golf course. It’s wide-open, ARG is very easy, and the rough is very low. Like Vidanta, there’s an invite to mash.

4. Keene Trace

COR score: 9
Keene trace in Lexington, KY has bermudagrass lining fairways, but by mid-July, it does not prove penal. High temperatures, low winds, a demand for driver, and similar to Vidanta, a large number of water hazards guarding greens.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. TPC Kuala Lampur
2. TPC Deere Run
3. TPC Potomac
4. The Old Course (ultimate mashers spot)
5. Waialae
6. Liberty National
7. Grand Reserve
8. Torrey Pines

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the Mexico Open.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Akshay: He’s 14-1 and I believe that’s a very fair number. Already the best player in the field, who loves these types of greens, and can go very low.
2. Patrick Rodgers: I’m playing more Rodgers than I expected to play. Rodgers can mash and obviously has great form. If for whatever reason the winning score is -18 and not -27 as expected, PRodg can hang in.
3. Kevin Yu: Taiwanese phenom who tends to star on these types of greens. Ball-striker who sucks at chipping, which shouldn’t matter this week. Back-to-back top 20s and in a spot he should be comfortable.
4. Jesper Svensson: A month ago I tweeted that Jesper would contend here. Nobody can make birdies like Jesper – this weekend will come down to avoiding the 6s, 7s, and 8s that the water here can pose. If Jesper can do that, he can get to -25 and challenge this thing. His only win? Singapore, just near the equator with a similar vibe to this – the projected putting stats support this.
5. The Hojgaards: I’m lumping Nicolai and Rasmus together here as I see Nico is underpriced and Rasmus maybe slightly overpriced. Nico is the free-spirit, and this should help him being in Mexico. Both players should be comfortable putting and both guys love to be aggressive with drivers in search of eagles.
6. Chris Gotterup: Gotterup can mash – I believe the only thing that can stop him from being as good as Kevin Yu is the space between his own ears. I still trust him to reach what was a high ceiling projected onto him when he made his debut. This week is a great opportunity.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
Gotterup 80/1 – I like his Top 5, 10 and 20s more.

I also show value in Yu 35/1, Jaegar 25/1, and Kitayama 20/1, but have not gotten there. I’m so enamored by Jesper that I may need to bet him, but the pre-tournament 55/1 is so much lower than I had dreamed about.
Favorite Play:
Jesper ($7.6k)
Star Anchor:
Bhatia ($10.7k)
Gut Check:
Kevin Yu ($8.6k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Find below my sub-$7ks plays. I am struggling to bifurcate them. Vilips has the raw talent, Gordon and Suber really fit it, Mouw and Hardy are talented. Jeremy Paul may be a fake Paul brother looking for his moment.

One & Done: Jesper

Overweight

1. Bhatia, Akshay ($10.7k)
2. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($10.1k) – mashes, eagle-maker
3. Rodgers, Patrick ($9.5k)
4. Yu, Kevin ($8.8k)
5. Svensson, Jesper ($7.6k) – mashes, eagle-maker
6. Hojgaard, Nicolai ($8.1k) – mashes, eagle-maker
7. Gotterup, Chris ($7.2k) – mashes, eagle-maker
8. Capan III, Frankie ($7.1k) – mashes, eagle-maker

Mid-range fillers

1. Kitayama, Kurt ($10.2k)
2. Jaeger, Stephan ($9.6k)
3. Knapp, Jake ($8.6k)
4. Fishburn, Patrick ($7.8k)
5. Thorbjornsen, Michael ($7.7k) – mashes
6. Norrman, Vincent ($7k) – mashes

Under $7.0k

1. Gordon, Will ($6.8k) – mashes
2. Suber, Jackson ($6.9k)
3. Mouw, William ($6.6k) – mashes
4. Paul, Jeremy ($6.6k)
5. Vilips, Karl ($6.6k) – mashes
6. Hardy, Nick ($6.6k)
7. Montgomery, Taylor ($6.5k)

FOMO

1. Hall, Harry ($9.3k)
2. Van Rooyen, Erik ($7.5k)
3. Ryder, Sam ($7.4k)

As always, GL GL GL.