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One consolidated post in the lead-up to a relocated Genesis Invitational. The LA wildfires of January have pushed this event to Torrey Pines, which hosted Harris English’ recent victory at the Farmers Insurance Open 3 weeks back. Two events at the same course just one month apart should help those of us that have been paying close attention, but as an elevated event, we get a new blend of characters for the Genesis iteration. Recent events at the Farmers Open, Sony Open, and WM Phoenix Open should give us be signals into success this week.

Recapping the WM Open, Detry got hot and torched the field. Rasmus fumbled in the last 10 holes after a ball-striking display for the majority of the week that was good enough to beat everyone but Detry – when the man you have a ticket on fumbles not only a chance to win, but also his top 5 and top 10 tickets down the stretch, it stings extra bad. Poston did not help us either with a very weak finish as the putter never got rolling.

I mentioned last week that a number of Dubai courses were popping in the model – Detry didn’t pop at those tracks specifically, but it’s no shock the only TOUR pro who lives in Dubai came out in front.

Course notes are a re-post of what was presented for the Farmers Open as we return to Torrey Pines South.

Plus4: Torrey Pines (South Course) course notes

• Total driving: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) plays around 7,700 yards. To get to scoring zones consistently, you need to be able to use driver as a weapon. You don’t need to be a bomber, but gaining fairways will be critical to those below TOUR average in driving. Unlike most TOUR courses, driver is almost required at most holes.
• Tough rough: Bryson and Spieth have both famously injured themselves in the long grass off these fairways. The dry winter may make it easier for this go around, but I still suspect gamey lies. Holding these greens without good angles of attack will be difficult and favors the stronger players who can gauge it out.
• West coast correlation: One of the most notable things you will see is a bunch of missed putts inside 10 feet. Torrey is the most difficult course to putt inside 15 feet on TOUR due to bumpy poa annua greens that get worse as the days goes on. Those that have 1) putted well here, at Pebble or in Mexico or 2) grew up on west coast greens will have the advantage. This stat only eccentuates the need to succeed in total driving and strokes-gained approach to have 15-20 feet for birdie instead of grinding of highly variable greenside lies, bunkers and 5-footers. The dry season may make this even worse – as softer, wet greens will hold form in the mornings but “curd” up in the afternoon and evening.

Plus4: Torrey Pines (South Course) corollary course deep-dive

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. Silverado Resort

COR score: 12

Little-known Silverado and Torrey Pines reside in opposite ends of California, but west coast guys love both tracks. Lots of drivers, similar greenscapes, and among the most narrow fairways are what make these tracks play similar.

2. Waialae

COR score: 6

Similar to said a few weeks back, driving the ball well is key to success at both course. Waialae has a different green type, but the sticky greenside rough has similarities.

3. Innisbrook

COR score: 9

Similar story once again: total driving and strokes-gained approach. Innisbrook feels like a soulless course in relation to other TOUR venues… but that may be why it correlates so well. You don’t need a bunch of imagination at either Torrey or Innisbrook. Hit it long, straight and near a green – otherwise, you’re mostly toast.

4. TPC Scottsdale

COR score: 6

When I think of Scottsdale, I think of the tight greenside lies typical of a Pete Dye course. But more than most Dye track, Scottsdale demands great driving and rewards length in scoring well. It’s a ball-strikers course, just like Torrey.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Chapultepec
2. Trump National Doral – Blue Monster
3. La Quinta
4. Hamilton G&CC
5. Vidanta Vallarta
6. Tahoe Mountain Club
7. Albany

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the Genesis Invitational.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Justin Thomas: JT went to Albany in the Fall and put on a driving display that showed his #1-in-the-world potential; he has not brought that forward to 2025 consistently. The form is strong with coming off a trapdoor top 5 and with consistent success in Scottsdale, Albany, and Innisbrook.
2. Tony Finau: Tony lost over 2-strokes putting at the South course during the Farmers in route to an MC. That would be tough to replicate. The projected approach numbers at Torrey based on approach range are very high. A winner in Mexico, top 10s here in 2023 and 2024.
3. Thomas Detry: We were early on Detry a few weeks back – he dominated TPC Scottsdale and there’s no reason that can’t transition to Torrey Pines if he’s mentally locked in. These greens and the rough make most TOUR players lose their minds (J.T. Poston to name one)… but Detry seems to take issue with every course, so this brainspace isn’t new for him!
4. Sahith Theegala: A winner at Silverado, a top 5 here, immaculate approach stats… I can’t stop betting Theegala. The betting odds are much higher this time around and his DraftKings price is almost $2,000 cheaper than at the Farmers.
5. Akshay: Bhatia WD’d prior to the Farmers due to his travel schedule. This is a course he should be able to attack through the fairway. I project the course to play more difficult this time around as the field is smaller and they can do more to punish the elevated players; experience can make you bolder, and that goes for greenskeepers too. 2025 finishes of 22nd, 32nd, 32nd, and 37th tell me he’s ready to pop. Top 5s in Mexico and Albany, a win in Tahoe, a top 10 at Silverado.
6. Stephan Jaeger: More of a gut check, I expect Jaeger to bounce back soon to a middling start of the year. He missed the cut at the Farmers as the irons abandoned him… if the irons follow like they usually do with Jaegar, he can play well enough to be in the top few spots.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
The board is sapped of value per my numbers. My model says JT should be 12/1 to win the event; there is a market out there without Scottie and Rory with JT at 12/1 that I will be taking. I think this event has the potential to turn into a two-horse or three-horse race of superstars .

It is very clear for me this week – I’m going double-bullet at $9.8k and above and then straight down the board to a packed mid-to-upper $7ks. All of Scottie, Rory, JT and Collin rate well… and it feels like a logical spot for Aberg to bounce back, provided he’s not throwing up on the course like he was during the back-half of the Farmers – a tournament he was dominating until he became ill.
Favorite Play:
JT ($10.1k)
Star Anchor:
Scottie ($12.0k)
Rory ($10.9k)
Collin ($10.0k)
Gut Check:
Theegala ($7.6k)
Akshay Bhatia ($7.1k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Jaegar ($6.4k)
Punt:
Hadwin ($6.0k)

One & Done: JT

Overweight

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($12.3k)
2. McIlroy, Rory ($10.9k)
3. Thomas, Justin ($10.1k)
4. Morikawa, Collin ($10k)
5. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($8.3k)
6. Finau, Tony ($8.2k)
7. Detry, Thomas ($8k)
8. Hovland, Viktor ($7.9k)
9. McNealy, Maverick ($7.8k)
10. Stevens, Samuel ($7.6k)
11. Theegala, Sahith ($7.5k)
12. Bhatia, Akshay ($7.1k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Straka, Sepp ($8k) – DK refuses to price Sepp correctly
2. MacIntyre, Robert ($8.1k)
3. Young, Cameron ($7.4k)

Under $7.0k

1. Novak, Andrew ($6.9k)
2. Jaeger, Stephan ($6.4k)
3. Dunlap, Nick ($6.1k)
4. Hadwin, Adam ($6k)
5. Knapp, Jake ($6k)

FOMO

1. Aberg, Ludvig ($9.8k)
2. Berger, Daniel ($6.9k) – Liable to lose 5 strokes putting
3. Kim, Michael ($6.3k) – Whole community will be on MK