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A series of events lead us to one consolidated post this week. I’ll evaluate doing this for future events as well based on how the consolidated post does.

Rory went scorched Earth on a course that did not adequately defend itself last weekend at Pebble Beach. We go from the Cali coast to the desert for “The Peoples’ Open”. Scottie is +280 on DraftKings to win the golf tournament, and I would refrain from standing in the path of the moving train that is Scottie Scheffler.

TPC Scottsdale is among my favorite courses on TOUR. Great risk-rewards par 5s, 17 and 18 are beautiful closing holes and the middle part of the course is daunting for those trying to make a steady turn on Sunday. There’s no wonder it consistently provides dramatic finishes down the stretch

Plus4: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course notes

• Double avoidance: Despite a devoid of water, Scottsdale has one of the highest total penalty strokes per round of any course on TOUR. Most of this comes off the tee…
• Total driving: There’s a reason that many golfers who succeed here have been steady drivers, not player with a spray and pray mentality. Players many flavors can win here, but the easiest way is through dominant off-the-tee play that puts you in much easier positions.
• Recent form: Waialae, Riviera, PGA West, Torrey Pines, La Quinta: all of these courses have been played in the last 4 weeks or will be played next week. This tells me that we can lean into recent form to give us a better feel on who succeeds.

Plus4: TPC Scottsdale deep-dive

New here? Visit our Plus4 approach page to learn about our process.

1. TPC Summerlin

COR score: 10

Pete Dye desert tracks. That’s all we need to know. Dye plays with the golfers eyes and these courses have a distinct overlap in around-the-green plays and approach distribution.

2. Silverado Resort

COR score: 11

Once again, Silverado finds our corollary list on a west coast track. You must be driving the ball well to succeed at either of these courses.

3. El Camaleon at Mayakoba and El Cardonal at Diamante

COR score: 8

Both of the Mexico tracks to have hosted the World Wide Technology Championships bring us that desert correlation.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Le Golf National
2. Wentworth
3. Montreux Golf
4. Torrey Pines
5. Waialae
6. Club de Golf Chapultepec
7. Trump National Doral
8. Sheshan International
NOTE: A plethora of random Dubai courses also pop in the model.

Plus4: ‘Players to Watch’ at the WM Phoenix Open.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Scottie Scheffler: Two-time winner here. A winner at Le Golf National. Plays great in the desert because he is the best ball-striker of our generation.
2. Rasmus Hojgaard: He’s the real deal, has success in Dubai and the Middle Eastern swing of the DP World Tour and, and can attack this place off-the-tee. The test will be his short game as a debutant here.
3. JT Poston: Our winner at TPC Summerlin last year. Loves the desert and these Pete Dye trick shot tracks.
4. Sahith Theegala: I feel like a broken record on Sahith. There’s a reason he’s 4th on this list. We will trust the model here.
5. Harry Hall: I think Harry will be happy to return to a Pete Dye course. He was great at TPC Summerlin has been good at Wentworth, La Quinta, and others. Keep the driver in line and lean on the wedges and putters.
6. Sam Stevens: Stevens is in great form after finishing runner-up at Torrey, was 6th in Mexico at the World Wide Technologies last Fall, and should improve on a 28th last year in his debut here.
7. Austin Eckroat: I’ve been away form Eckroat until this week. The ball striking numbers should be resurfacing from last year when he won in Mexico. Finished 13th at Pebble Beach.

Plus4 Board

Open outright bets:
I led with this… be cautious against Scottie. He’s +280 to win.
Rasmus Hojgaard 50/1 with T5, T10
Poston 65/1 with T5
Eckroat 16/1 Top 5

Favorite Play:
Poston ($8.0k)
Star Anchor:
Scottie ($12.0k)
Gut Check:
Rasmus Hojgaard ($9.2k)
Akshay Bhatia ($8.2k)
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Fishburn ($6.8k)
Punt:
Joe Highsmith ($6.5k)
Carson Young ($6.5k)

One & Done: Poston – I’m a little bit behind here… trying to call my shot.

Overweight

1. Scheffler, Scottie ($12k)
2. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($9.2k)
3. McNealy, Maverick ($8.8k)
4. Bhatia, Akshay ($8.2k)
5. Poston, J.T. ($8k)
6. Hall, Harry ($7.7k)
7. Stevens, Samuel ($7.6k)
8. Eckroat, Austin ($7.5k)
9. Hoge, Tom ($7.4k)
10. Cole, Eric ($7.1k)
11. Meissner, Mac ($7k)
12. Fishburn, Patrick ($6.8k)
13. Highsmith, Joe ($6.5k)
14. Young, Carson ($6.5k)

Mid-range fillers

1. Thomas, Justin ($10.5k)
2. Matsuyama, Hideki ($10.2k)
3. Theegala, Sahith ($9.5k)
4. Taylor, Nick ($8.4k)
5. Berger, Daniel ($7.4k)
6. Hodges, Lee ($7.1k)
7. UPDATE: Jesper Svensson ($6.8k) replacing Meissner and Gotterup

Under $7.0k

1. Dunlap, Nick ($7k)
2. Rodgers, Patrick ($6.9k)
3. Knapp, Jake ($6.8k)
4. Gotterup, Chris ($6.5k)
5. Griffin, Lanto ($6.5k)
6. Kizzire, Patton ($6.3k)