Check out this week’s 2025 PGA TOUR: AT&T Pebble Beach Preview and Player Insights for a more detailed look into the course and our players to watch.

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Strategy this week: With Scottie Scheffler introducing himself for the first time this year, the #1 decision most bettors will have is Play or Fade Scottie. I will not be playing Scottie in more than 2-3% of my lineups and will not be wagering hard-earned money on THE CHRISTMAS BUTCHER. At that price, Scottie has to be a top 5 and maybe top 3 performer to pay off in DFS, and +400 for a guy who hasn’t swung a club in a month is aggressive… additionally, our corollary course model does not love Scottie at Pebble Beach.

I will be aggressive around 4-6 guys this week, with a lot of filler in the mid-to-upper 7s range. With no Scottie, and my model not overly adoring anybody between Sungjae and Collin, I don’t have a need to dig deep into the 6s too often.

When we get to Pebble, the entire market goes to course history. This is a completely different event now that it’s an elevated field… before 2023, the fields were getting progressively worse. Do not get trapped deflating someone’s top 10 from last year with Cantlay’s 4 consecutive top 11 finishes in mostly bad fields.

Draws

Open outright bets:
Bobby MacIntyre 55 with T5, T10
Sungjae Im 25 with T5
Rasmus Hojgaard top Nordic +280

Favorite Play:
Macintyre, Robert ($7.7k) – I really hope the wind kicks up. As of now, winds are down and temperatures will average just about 50 degrees for the string of the event. Bobby Mac lines up perfectly with our corollary courses… winner at Marco Simone, top 8 finishes at 5 other DP World Tour corollary courses, and a 7th at Southwind last year. In reality, Bobby is the “what do ya fancy?” version of Beau Hossler and has a lot of young Phil in his game.
Star Anchor:
Morikawa, Collin ($10.2k) – Runner-up at the Sentry without enough course history to be overly popular. This is a Collin-style track.
Sungjae ($9.0k) – Always strong on coastal tracks, good corollary performances and great form coming in.
Gut Check:
Scott, Adam ($7.6k) – Adam has not played Pebble much in his career, but the course fits him very well. Emphasize total driving, long irons and steady scoring. At the 23 events that’ve taken place at our corollary course set over the last 5 years (follow me now), Adam Scott finishes top 25 in more than half, and better than 43rd in 22 of the 23 events. Take that for data.
Akshay Bhatia ($7.3k) – A winner in Tahoe in 2023, a winner at TPC SA last year. The model shows him with the biggest uptick of our group on corollary greens. Following a 4th at the Hero, he was bad at The Sentry (where he almost won in 2024). I’ll assume he had too many Mai Tais and this week will be better.
Favorite Sub-$7,000:
Rai, Aaron ($6.9k) – I’m not a big Rai believer here, but it’s a track susceptible to wind that rewards driving accuracy and great approach play. He’s under $7.0k as the 23rd ranked player in OWGR.
Punt:
Griffin, Ben ($6.6k) – This is simply a gut check. I think Ben Griffin is good and by the end of the year will be in the same ranges as the guys around $7.5k. This is also the type of course he should thrive at by leaning on short wedges.

One & Done: MacIntyre

Overweight

1. Morikawa, Collin ($10.2k)
2. Im, Sungjae ($9k)
3. Lowry, Shane ($8k)
4. Macintyre, Robert ($7.7k)
5. Scott, Adam ($7.6k)
6. Bhatia, Akshay ($7.3k)
7. Spaun, J.J. ($7.2k)

High-end filler:

1. Thomas, Justin ($9.8k)
2. Cantlay, Patrick ($9.4k)
3. Zalatoris, Will ($8.4k) – I am yet to see news on why Zal withdrew last week. He is always a flight risk in DFS. Let’s hope it was schedule related.
4. McNealy, Maverick ($8.1k)
5. Straka, Sepp ($8k)
6. EDIT: added Pendrith to the pool and nerfed both McNealy (scared he shot wad last year) and Zalatoris (so much unknown)

Sub $7,000:

1. McCarthy, Denny ($7k)
2. Rai, Aaron ($6.9k)
3. Novak, Andrew ($6.7k)
4. Griffin, Ben ($6.6k)
5. Lower, Justin ($6.2k)
6. Yu, Kevin ($6k)

FOMO:

1. Matsuyama, Hideki ($9.6k)
2. An, Byeong Hun ($7.5k)
3. Hojgaard, Rasmus ($7.5k)
4. Hoge, Tom ($7.3k)

Scariest Fades:

1. It’s Scottie freakin’ Scheffler
2. Jason Day – Course history, recent form, terrible outfits. It will be miserable to watch if this streak continues.

GL GL GL