Check out this week’s 2025 PGA TOUR: Farmers Insurance Open Preview and Player Insights for a more detailed look into the course and our players to watch.

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Strategy this week: Every play of mine this week has at least 1 of the following 3 things. The ability to use driver as a weapon OR a demonstrated propensity to play well on poa annua OR past success at difficult European Tour and/or major championship venues. Given the short week, I do not have a full card yet; the player pool remains long.

Draws

Favorite Play: Sahith Theegala ($9.1k) – If you followed along for the Sony Open, you will have seen this name. Sahith has, through an early career, been well at the easier west coast and poa annua venues on TOUR. That changes this week as he becomes a name to watch at Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship
Star Anchor: Ludwig Aberg ($10.6k)
Gut Check: Mark Hubbard ($7.8k), Taylor Moore ($7.3k) – Hubbard had a great week in the desert. His ball speed numbers were up over 174 mph last week, a good 4 mph above the figures we saw in late 2024. West coast guy, grinder, fits the approach profile and should roll over big stick confidence.
Favorite Sub-$7,000: Andrew Novak ($7.0k) , Ryo Hisatsune ($6.8k) – Technically, Novak is $7,000. It’s my blog, so I’m doing it. He was a name to watch at Waialae and putt terribly to MC. I think Novak is too talented to not flash out west, and this course should fit him in a similar vein to Hubbard.
Punt: S.H. Kim ($6.6k) – I am a Seonghyeon believer. He’s talented and fell into a slump last year. This price is higher than I expected and will keep everybody away, but the talent is there and I believe S.H. is a PGA-caliber player, not a Korn Ferry lifer.

One & Done: Sahith Theegala

Open outright bets with placements: Only S.H. Kim, for now. In consideration is Taylor Moore, Ryo Hisatsune, and Matt Wallace. I will reserve some for live betting.

Overweight

1. Aberg, Ludvig ($10.8k)
2. Finau, Tony ($10.2k)
3. Theegala, Sahith ($9.1k)
4. McNealy, Maverick ($8.9k)
5. Homa, Max ($8.6k)
6. Hubbard, Mark ($7.8k)
7. Wallace, Matt ($7.5k)
8. English, Harris ($7.3k)
9. Moore, Taylor ($7.3k)
10. Svensson, Jesper ($7.1k)
11. Novak, Andrew ($7k)
12. Hisatsune, Ryo ($6.8k)
13. Kim, Seonghyeon ($6.6k)

High-end filler:

1. Im, Sungjae ($10k)
2. Jaeger, Stephan ($7.8k)
3. Vegas, Jhonattan ($7.4k)

Sub $7,000:

1. Castillo, Ricky ($6.6k)
2. Paul, Jeremy ($6.6k)
3. Higgs, Harry ($6.4k)
4. Gordon, Will ($6.2k)

FOMO:

1. Berger, Daniel ($7.6k)
2. Capan III, Frankie ($7.1k)
3. Young, Carson ($7.1k)
4. Gerard, Ryan ($7k)
5. Bramlett, Joseph ($6.9k)

Scariest Fades:

Matsuyama and Jason Day: Both have past success and generally fit who I would like in a winner. Their betting odds and DraftKings prices are not appealing.

GL GL GL