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Week 3 of the PGA TOUR brings us state-side to the American Express. The AmEx is played within a three-course rotation and, compounding that with a pro-am, leads to a terrible television product. If you want to see the players at the top of the board, just tune in Sunday afternoon and hope the broadcast has it figured out. The AmEx is a full-field event with over 150 players, creating a lot of work to sift our best fits. Leading the field is Patrick Cantlay, JT, Xander, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, and Tom Kim (who didn’t make the first lineup for his TGL team!).

Given the Stadium Course is the only course with ShotLink data and has twice the sample of the other courses (the Nicklaus Course and La Quinta), our analysis this week will be exclusive to past Pete Dye Stadium Course performance.

Side bar: In contrast to last week, correlation pops off the page when looking at the Stadium Course. Even though Waialae plays harder than the Stadium Course, underlying data tells us that performance is more predictable at the Stadium Course, which rewards total driving distance as well as approach and around-the-green skill. As noted last week, Waialae is tough to find correlation for as success at the course has more randomness than almost any course at TOUR. Success this week should be less random and thus favor us as we dive into the Plus4 benchmarks.

Course notes

• The real hit-and-giggle: These are not serious PGA TOUR courses. All 3 courses are easy – the dry conditions across SoCal could lead to more struggle, but the pins at these pro-ams are very accessible and scoring is widely available.
• Total driving: Past champions are a mixed bag of bombers and plotters, but that shouldn’t stray us from the fact that off-the-tee dominance is the easiest way to attack this course. Approachable pins and big moguls off the fairway favor those that can position themselves well. We will look for players that can gain strokes with driver and put themselves in advantageous spots.
• Within 100 or over 250: Like few other courses on TOUR, most of your strokes-gained will come from approaches within 100 yards (due to the non-serious nature of this course) and over 250 yards (four stretched-out par 5s).
• Dead Bermuda: You’ll see a lot of brown, dormant Bermuda grass on TV. More than just a color contrast, this grass makes around-the-green play easier and creates trick shot opportunities that favor the best around-the-green players.

Plus4 analysis: Pete Dye Stadium Course corollary courses

1. TPC Sawgrass

COR score: 10

Sawgrass and our Stadium Course share many things in common:
1. Pete Dye and his common approach sightlines
2. Shorter courses that are more about off-the-tee play than most realize
3. Skate-park greensides – I love these greenside complexes as they demand creativity and lies are commonly good enough for players to show off. There’s a long list of trick shots that guys like JT and Scottie have pulled off at both these courses.
4. Big reliance on < 100 yards and > 250 yard approaches to produce great scoring

2. East Lake

COR score: 18

Not going to lie, this perplexes me. At first glance, not much between these two tracks should fit, but the results scream a large amount of correlation. One thing we can pick out is that both East Lake and the Stadium Course demand total driving to score – if you are not in position, relative scoring can drop immensely. East Lake is a big boy track, and while the Stadium Course might not be, you typically need to be a big boy golfer to win.

3. Keene Trace (Champions)

COR score: 8

Keene Trace is not a household name, hosting the alternate-event Barbasol Championship in recent years. Lucky for us, many of the players in a field such as the AmEx have played the Barbasol on their journey, giving us a large swath of numbers to go off of. Once again, Keene Trace is not a super serious golf course but it demands total driving to be successful, provides a skate park for players to show off from greenside through 100 yards, and requires you to attack the golf course to go low.

Other corollary courses (our Most Honorable mentions)

A few courses that will be factoring into our model:
1. Nicklaus TC (COR score: 10) – in the three-course rotation of the AmEx this week
2. Torrey Pines North Course (10) – note this is not the more prevalent South Course
3. Glen Abbey (7) and Hamilton Golf & Country Club (4) of the Canadian Open
4. Sea Island Plantation Course (7)
5. Abu Dhabi and Crans-Sur-Sierre of the DP World Tour

Plus4 analysis: Player fits for the AmEx

Based on Plus4’s analysis, the below players will see a favorable bump in their play at the Stadium Course.

Ranked by projected skill

1. Justin Thomas: The ultimate skate park golfer. Winner at TPC Sawgrass, top 3s here at the AmEx, East Lake, Albany, Chapultepec, just to name a few. If he drives the ball like we saw in Albany, I expect him to be up top on the leaderboard. If it just happens to be windy and firm by the grace of the golf gods, he could ball-strike this play to a big win.
2. Tom Kim: Our most recent runner-up in Albany, Tom has played well at every corollary course… but not at the AmEx. That should change. He gains a ton off-the-tee and is great from under 100 yards out – let’s hope the putter actually gets hot.
3. Ben Griffin: A runner-up in Canada, a top 10 here, has played great at the Sea Island Plantation course, and fits the approach distribution needed here. Griffin also was right at the top of the board at TPC Sawgrass a rookie until the very bright lights got to him during round 4. The downfall for Ben at that PLAYERS Championship started with being the on-course interview on the weekend of a $20M purse tournament! Quite the distraction buddy.
4. Johnny Vegas: Vegas has not played well here, but he has played well at short tracks that require scoring. If the putter cooperates, he could ball-strike this place to a victory.
5. Doug Ghim: Someone needs to teach lil’ Dougie how to putt. Another victim of TPC Sawgrass spotlights, everything fits Doug Ghim here. Ghim fits almost all the skills of Tom Kim, albeit to smaller degrees and with less fanfare.
6. Chandler Phillips: Phillips is a wild card of a golfer, liable to go out in 32 on the front and come in with a 40 on the back. He gets every corollary course well – the approach numbers are not to die for, but I think Chandler is big-time and could have a good career attacking these types of tracks.
7. Chan Kim: Chan has not flashed the high finishes at the corollary course, but the stats back-up that he plays best at this type of place. Chan fits the ball-striking reliant lane paved by Johnny Vegas above… just pray the putter cooperates.

DraftKings DFS Player Pool will be posted in full on Tuesday evening.